Thursday, September 16, 2004

Posted here Thursday, September 16, 2004 at 9:37:51 AM     From www.juancole.com this morning Sistani's quite resonable demand for elections is nevertheless among the greatest dangers facing the Allawi government and the Americans. It will be extremely difficult actually to hold the elections on time. But Sistani believes only such elections can produce a legitimate government, and he already accepted a six-month delay. If the elections are not held, and if Sistani begins to fear they won't be held soon, he may well call the masses into the streets. That could lead to an overthrow of Allawi and an expulsion of the Americans. Keep your eye on February and March of 2005. Incidentally, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan predicted that it would be impossible to hold the elections on time. He also went on record that the Bush administration's war against Iraq had been illegal, contravening the US charter that forbids the launching of wars without UN Security Council authorization. Annan insists that there should have been a second UNSC vote. I find myself thinking, who is in Washington minding the government? Who is in control? Who is having conversations? ********

Posted here Thursday, September 16, 2004 at 9:09:18 AM     And U.S. Intelligence Shows Pessimism on Iraq's Future By DOUGLAS JEHL ASHINGTON, Sept. 15 - A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said Wednesday. The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms. So, now what? Is the pressure to pull out going to increase? Does it make sense? There could be a third way, between pulling out and fighting the increasing number of insurgents. Lots of talk, among all parties, and make that effort larger than the war itself. Make it interesting, make it relevant, make it have operational authority. ********