Posted here Friday, July 23, 2004 at 10:56:17 AM 
Fascinating to watch how gamy it has all become. In this case, the Bush campaign says Kerry needs to come out of the convention 15% ahead inorder to be catching on. hence he loses. Reporters pick up on this and use it rather than analyze it.
from columbia journalism review's http://www.campaigndesk.org/
The Bush camp planted a stake in the ground on July 4, when Bush-Cheney campaign strategist Matthew Dowd released a memo (widely reported on in the days thereafter) asserting that "Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of the convention." Writing for The Hill on July 14, former Kerry staffer Mark Mellman tried to lower expectations. What Dowd was really saying, Mellman wrote, is that "Kerry 'should' be ahead by 15 points," even though Dowd doesn't really believe Kerry will have such a lead. Mellman, naturally, implies that any bounce at all is a good sign: "There are not a lot of voters left for Kerry to get, to give the ticket a bounce. That's a sign of real strength."
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