Friday, February 13, 2004

The selloff after my last post had alleviated some of that overbought condition on the VIX, which is now back up to 15.65, around 5% below its moving average.  Still mildly overbought, but not extreme any longer. Here is the link to the daily chart of the VIX on the site I mentioned in the last post: http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/subscriber_indicators_complete.asp#volatility   11:40:28 AM

The  VIX is down to 14.86 this morning, getting close to a new multi-year low.  That's fine as long as the indices are making new highs, however it is also getting close to more than 10% below its 10-day moving average.  Check out the chart of the VIX in the subscriber's section of the site...you will see that this "10% system" has worked pretty well on moves of 3-5 days.  It is starting to urge caution now. 10:04:47 AM