Wednesday, March 10, 2004

Seeing short-term capitulatory-type readings now in things like the TICK, VIX, TRIN, etc.  I am now looking aggressively for long-side entries, but this would be for a TRADE only.  This action is NOT something that is typical of healthy uptrends. 3:34:21 PM

With this unrelenting selling pressure, the VIX is now more than 15% above its 10-day moving average.  This is indicating the most oversold market conditions since August 6th, 2003 and late January 2003 before that.  The instance on Aug 6th marked the exact low for the move, while the one in January lead to further declines.  This goes back to what I have been saying recently in that if we cannot rally heartily from areas right around here, a longer-term decline is likely in store.  We're coming perilously close to not being able to rally from severely oversold short-term conditions, so we need to get moving to the upside very soon, or we will have good reason to be suspect about the bigger uptrend. 2:35:47 PM