Monday, March 22, 2004

We're once again seeing some of the panicky-type readings we saw the week before last.  The VIX is up 15% and is once again more than 20% above it's 10-day average, the TRIN is over 2.5, p/c readings are elevated, and breadth is extremely lopsided to the downside.  While last week I thought it was a good bet to fade those type of numbers, I'm not nearly as eager to do so now as long as we remain under last week's lows.  In the past few comments, I have been noting that I thought we'd see a bit more of a bounce with the previous readings we saw, but any move below last week's lows invalidated that.  Now I want to see more of our longer-term measures hit some extremes, or price rally back above last week's lows, before concentrating on the long side again. 10:36:13 AM