Thursday, March 25, 2004

Today's TRIN on the Nasdaq is an incredibly low 0.18 so far today - the lowest reading in a year.  The previous reading so low was 0.17 on March 17th of last year, which marked the high for about the next month.  This is encouraging action, but I continue to think that this morning's gap up open will be filled sooner rather than later. 2:09:19 PM

AAII survey out with 31% bulls (down from 39%), 43% bears (up from 26%).  This is the least amount of bullishness since February of last year. 1:03:33 PM

Since 1986, any time the S&P futures gapped open more than 0.5% above its previous close (as it did today), while the futures were trading below its declining 50-day moving average, there was only a 46% chance the gap was fillled that day.  By the next day, the chance jumped up to 62%.  It turns out that if the gap was going to be filled, it would be within 6 trading days, as 78% of the gaps were filled by that time.  If they weren't filled by 6 days, none of the gaps were filled within 10 days (meaning the market kept rallying, or at least didn't drop enough to fill the gap). Since 1998, however, these gaps were filled 56% of the time the same day, and every time but once within 5 days.  Anytime we gap open right to resistance and a previous gap area, I'm leery.  These figures don't necessarily support a filling of today's gap today, but they do within a few days. 10:06:04 AM