Thursday, April 08, 2004

The market is not acting well of the gap open this morning, which hopefully will begin to give us a much-needed correction.  Weakness on the day before Good Friday is unusual, and if we would happen to close negatively today, then in the past the day after the holiday was up 33% of the time, as opposed to 43% of the time if the day before the holiday closed positively.  So, it looks as though unusual weakness before the holiday lead to a greater chance of weakness after the holiday as well. 11:34:08 AM

Only two times has the day before Good Friday gapped higher by 0.5% or more since 1986 (using S&P 500 futures), which it looks like it may do so far this morning.  In 1987, the gap was not closed that day, and we went on to enjoy a 1.3% gain on the day.  The day after the holiday showed a loss of 0.5%.  In 1993, the gap was closed that day, and the day ended up unchanged.  The day after the holiday was up 1.3%, going against the norm of a weak close the day traders return from vacation. 8:19:22 AM