Monday, May 10, 2004

I've received more than a few requests to put out an intraday note, but to be honest I don't see a whole lot that's noteworthy so far today.  Yes, we've slightly undercut the March lows in the S&P, and that obviously bears watching.  While a majority of our intraday measures hit extremes early this morning, the tepid bounce since then has worn off a good deal of those oversold conditions.  We're seeing some "fear" in the readings, such as a nice pop in the VIX and the put/call ratios, but overall I'm not seeing a lot of washout-type indications (we did see a little of that on Friday with the TICK, however).  If breadth closes about where it is now, our 10-day moving averages of the up issues and up volume ratios will be EXTREMELY stretched, which almost always leads to at least a short-term bounce - even in severe downtrends.  There are some pieces in place for a bounce - even a good one - and a hold above those March lows would be positive, but as of now I continue to prefer sitting out and seeing how the market reacts around these levels. 3:06:03 PM