Monday, June 14, 2004

Similar (but opposite) to last Monday, we are seeing a trend day today.  You can check the archives for last Monday's note, but I said at the time that these trend days can be identified many times relatively early by watching the NYSE TICK.  For a trend day down, like today, simply reverse the criteria I gave last week.  With about an hour to go in the day, it looks like we will end up closing at the lows of the day unless we see some different action around these TICK readings.  With the S&P mounting only 2-3 point rallies (at most) off the large negative TICKs, and selling pressure coming in every time we get back to zero, we have to see a real change in order to expect a rally into the close.  While things could change in an instant, so far we're not seeing it. 3:04:05 PM