Tuesday, June 15, 2004

Somewhat similar to yesterday, the trend day we saw for much of the day is beginning to break down.  The TICK is spending more time below zero, and we're seeing some relatively large negative TICK readings.  Also, the S&P has retraced more than just a couple of points from the intraday highs.  This increases the risk substantially that we will see a late-day selloff.  That doesn't mean it will happen of course, it simply means the risk is increased, and it doesn't make as much sense to try to buy aggressively on the little intraday declines. 3:03:21 PM

While yesterday turned out to not be a trend day technically with the little spurt higher into the close, today so far is following the script.  It would be HIGHLY unusual to see two trend days back-to-back, but an hour into the session it is acting well. Again, I primarily watch the NYSE TICK for indications of whether we will likely see a trend day or not (a day that opens at the low, climbs all day, and closes at the high - opposite for trend days down).  The S&P shouldn't decline more than 2 or 3 points after TICK readings of +1000, and buying pressure should come in as the TICK approaches zero.  The TICK should spend little - if any - time below the zero line.  Anything other than that, and we are not seeing a true trend day, in my opinion, and it becomes more likely that we would see some kind of intraday reversal, or deeper retracement. If you do not have a quote system with the TICK, Yahoo! Finance has free quotes (albeit delayed).  Use the ticker symbol ^TIC.N. 10:36:09 AM