Wednesday, June 30, 2004

Quick note...since 1996, anytime both stocks and bonds have liked the Fed's action by closing higher on decision day, the S&P was higher 30 days later only 4 times, and the avg return was -0.9%.  So today's action looks positive, but in the past it has not necessarily been sustainable.  And while the sample is small, anytime both closed higher on a day the Fed raised rates, the S&P was lower after 30 days every time, with an average return of -3.6%.  There were only four instances, however, and all in 1999 and 2000. 3:48:46 PM