Friday, July 02, 2004

If the day closes about where it is today, this will be only the third time since 1950 that the NYSE TRIN closed above 2.5 for two days in a row.  The first was in May 1951, the second in October 1987.  The S&P was an average of 12.5% higher after 90 days.  Going back to 1940, there were five additional occurrences, with 3 of them being higher after 90 days, but the average return was only 0.2%.  The reliability of those figures is somewhat suspect, but still I don't think our current situation is yet done with the downside.  We've seen quite a bit of speculation (Rydex bullish assets actually increased yesterday, while bearish ones declined), and that's not worked off so quickly.   3:19:55 PM