Wednesday, July 21, 2004

The Investor's Intelligence survey came out today with 52.6% bulls (down from 54.2%) and 20% bears (up from 18.8%).  This is STILL nearly 2 standard deviations above its long-term mean amount of bullish opinion. While that survey of newsletter writers has not shown much in the way of increased bearishness, some of the others have.  I talked about the lowrisk.com survey last week, which once again this week came out with a relatively high level of bearishness.  And the Consensus, Inc. survey just released its results for last week with 38% bulls.  While not really historically extreme, it is about what we saw at the May lows and we would have to go back to early 2003 to see such low readings prior to that.  This has little (if any) short-term value. Speaking of short-term, our intraday measures are just now coming out of firmly overbought conditions.  I suspect it will be difficult to maintain much of a rally in the face of these types of readings. 11:05:11 AM