Wednesday, June 08, 2005



Tropical Depression One Update 090300Z



At 11 PM EDT the poorly defined center of Tropical Depression One was at 17.6 North 83.9 West, 210 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman.  Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph and minimum central pressure is 1003 millibars (29.62").  The depression is moving to the north at 6 mph.

Tropical Depression One Advisory #2 (National Hurricane Center)

The wind speeds were increased on the basis of the last observation from Hurricane Hunters.  Its appearance on satellite is not impressive.  Upper level winds are unfavorable for development currently, but are expected to become slightly favorable over the next day.  The 72 hour  forecast has landfall in the vicinity of the Alabama/Mississippi state line on Saturday night.

Tropical Depression One Discussion #2
(NHC)

I've been puzzling over the infrared satellite loop. It's really difficult to pick out a center of circulation from that.  From that alone, one would think that the center is about 100 miles north/northeast of the given position.  According to the discussion, that is about where the strongest winds are at.  I'm not sure what to make of it.

2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:11:08 PM   trackback [] 


Some June storm history



While the hurricane season starts on June 1, it is not uncommon for the month to pass by without so much as a tropical depression (as was the case last year). Storms that do manage to form and develop tend to do so in the west Carribean and Gulf of Mexico since that is where the warmest water is during this time of year. Because the water is not at its peak temperature yet (and the relatively small area of the Gulf,) such storms are rarely major.

Here are some highlights and trivia of June storms (based on the past 50 years):

  • 16 storms made landfall in the United States in June. Six of those did so as hurricanes, two of them major.
  • Florida leads the way in landfall location (seven storms). Texas and Louisiana have four apiece.
  • The strongest and deadliest of them was Hurricane Audrey, which hit Louisana in 1956. A category 4 storm with 125 knot winds, she claimed the lives of 390 people.
  • Hurricane Alma was a major hurricane in June, 1966. It cut across the Florida Panhandle and Georgia without losing Tropical Storm strength.
  • Hurricane Agnes of 1972 managed to regain tropical storm strength over North Carolina despite having been over land for three days. It made a second landfall in New York.
  • The complete oddball of these storms is 1981's Tropical Storm Bret. It formed due north of Bermuda and made landfall on the Eastern Shore of Virginia. A peculiar way to make landfall at any time of the year, much less June.
  • The most common name among the sixteen: Allison. The 1989 and 2001 editions hit Texas, while the 1995 one hit Florida.
  • The 1995 edition of Allison is also the closest analog to Tropical Depression One, having formed a mere 21 miles away nautical miles away from TD 1's birthplace.

Florida Referendums 2004, Weather comment []9:17:04 PM   trackback [] 


Tropical Depression One forms



The Hurricane Hunter found winds just strong enough to justify calling the disturbance a tropical depression.

At 5 PM EDT it was 235 miles south-west of Grand Cayman Island with winds of 30 mph and minimum central pressure of 1004 mb (29.65"). The current forecast is for it to develop into a tropical storm in the next day or two while heading to the Gulf Coast of the United States.

Tropical Depression One Advisory #1

Tropical Depression One Discussion #1



2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:17:25 PM   trackback [] 


Tropical Watch



The first tropical system of the year may be near.

From this morning's Tropical Weather Outlook:

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING
BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. EVEN IF THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Details in the Tropical Weather Discussion: 

1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND W CUBA
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW TOWARD THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL FORMATION LATER IN THE WEEK.

The current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly chart shows that the water temperatures are about a degree (Celsius) warmer. than the long term average; another favorable factor for development.

According to the Plan of the Day for the Hurricane Hunters, the plane will be in the area at 4 PM EDT. I'll be keeping an eye on this.

LATER:
At 12:45 PM EDT, NOAA's Satellite Services Division estimated the disturbance to be of tropical depression strength. We'll see what the Hurricane Hunters say...

2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []1:42:51 PM   trackback [] 


Quiet day for Seminoles in baseball draft



No Florida State players were drafted yesterday. Also, none of our high school recruits were drafted.

In past years the draft has depleted our recruiting class. In 1997, for example, Michael Cuddyer had committed to the Seminoles and waited until the last minute to decide to play baseball instead of going to college. In 2001, Joe Mauer made a similar decision. (He was also a highly rated quarterback. At the time the joke was that he was going to be the next Chris Weinke). It is fairly hard to research other instances of this.

But it is not hard to research our players being drafted (or not). Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can look back on past years to see the last time the first Seminole picked was drafted so late:

Year
Round
Pick #
Name
2004
1
15
Stephen Drew
2003
4
103
Tony Richie
2002
7
205
Matt Lynch
2001
1
23
John Ford-Griffin
2000
9
270
Marshall McDougal
1999
1
36
Nick Stocks
1998
5
156
Scott Proctor
1997
1
2
J.D. Drew
1996
9
259
Jeremy Morris
1995
1
7
Jonathan Johnson
1994
1
1
Paul Wilson
1993
1
25
John Wasdin
1992
1
12
Kenny Felder
1991
1
17
Eduardo Perez
1990
3
86
Marc Ronan
1989
10
251
Ron Lewis
1988
9
216
Edwin Alicea
1987
2
44
Richie Lewis
1986
1
23
Luis Alicea
1985
7
176
Doug Little
1984
8
198
Jody Reed
1983
4
97
Bruce Tanner
1982
1
26
Jeff Ledbetter
1981
2
44
Mike Fuentes
1980
2
35
Jim Weaver
1979
31
767
Craig Patterson

A few notes to this:

- While they are rare, players picked as late as Craig Patterson can have an impact. Pick 765 in 1979 belonged to the Houston Astros who drafted Glenn Davis, who would go on to be a two-time All-Star.

- In the recent years (at least) that we didn't have a player drafted early, we did have prospects who went on to play for us get drafted. In 2000, Tony Richie was drafted in the 8th round, but went to school instead and was the first Seminole picked in 2003.

- The difference between 1979 and 1980 is simple: Mike Martin became coach in 1980. With the exception of winning a national championship, he has meant as much to Florida State baseball as Bobby Bowden has meant to FSU football.

The Tallahassee Deomcrat has an article on our relative lack of star power:

Unified front helps FSU

Florida State enters the Gainesville Super Regional without the power, and even star power, that it had a year ago. Yet coaches and players insist this FSU team possesses the necessary ingredients to go even further in the NCAA postseason.

Speed, doing the little things right and patience at the plate have countered offensive deficiencies to push FSU over the 50-win plateau - something it didn't reach a year ago. The ace - Bryan Henry - and bullpen are solid. And there is something else - togetherness.

"I've never had a tighter-knit group of guys - never," FSU coach Mike Martin said. "Senior leadership. ... Four seniors and, boy, did they really get across to the other guys what is expected off the field and on the field."...

To understand how remarkable Florida State's sucess is with a lack of star seniors, consider the other fifteen teams that are still in contention for the national championship. Here are some tidbits on their draft:

- Eleven of those teams had at least one player drafted in the first round (Miami and Tennessee both had two).

- Three of the teams that did not have a player drafted in the first had at least one drafted in the second.

- Florida was the last team (besides FSU, of course,) to have a player drafted. Their first player drafted was pick #200 in the sixth round.

- As of this moment (19th round) ever round has had least one player taken from a team in the Super Regionals.

- Also, atm, there have been 61 players taken from the other fifteen schools.

- Of those schools, Baylor leads the way with seven players drafted; Tennessee, Miami, Cal State-Fullerton, and Mississippi have five apiece.

Of course, stars do not necessarily make a championship team. Arizona had eight players drafted and they were knocked off by Cal-State Fullerton in the regionals. Auburn had seven players drafted and Florida State eliminated them in the regionals as well.

I'll update this post when a Seminole does finally get drafted.

LATER:
26th Round, Pick #793 by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Kevin Lynch - Right Handed Pitcher Florida State University.

So, 26 picks later than the previous 'latest first FSU' pick.  It appears that this is the latest ever for such a pick.  In the years before 1979 there were players taken in the 10th, 1st, 4th, and 8th rounds.  In 1974 there were no FSU players taken and there were only 687 picks that year.

By my count there are only eleven teams left from the field of 64 that started the College World Series playoffs that do not have a player drafted (Even Army/United States Military Academy had a player (Schuyler Williamson) taken before Lynch (#780).



Florida State comment []12:33:24 PM   trackback [] 



Stories on Justin Upton



As one would expect, the first pick in the baseball draft, Justin Upton, figures prominently on the sports pages of Hampton Roads:

   
CHESAPEAKE -- Manny and Yvonne Upton, with sons B.J. and Justin, sat on a table in Great Bridge High School’s crowded media center Tuesday afternoon. They stared at a large, flat screen hooked to a laptop as news cameras stared back.

Yvonne grimaced. Justin snapped his bubble gum. Manny and B.J. were stoic, belying the anticipation in the room. Already thick, the tension was exacerbated by technical glitches in starting the 1 p.m. Web cast of Major League Baseball’s amateur draft, in which Justin Upton was expected to be chosen first.

Twice, the promised announcement was met with abrupt silence by dozens of students, friends and family – and followed by a burst of nervous laughter as the Arizona Diamondbacks’ pick was delayed.

The alleged hold-up? The New York Yankees’ tardiness in joining the official draft conference call .

Ultimately, though, even the “Damn Yankees” couldn’t forestall the inevitable forever:

“Arizona selects Draft No. 8526, Upton,” came the voice of a Diamondbacks executive through the speaker...

Baseball Comes Calling (Daily Press)

As much as Justin Upton wanted Tuesday to be just another day, it wasn't. Life changed around 12:30 p.m. when the 17-year-old high school senior became a millionaire.

Upton, a shortstop from Great Bridge High in Chesapeake, was selected No. 1 overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Major League Baseball draft. He one-upped his big brother, B.J., who was chosen No. 2 overall in the 2002 draft by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, but they made history together. They are the highest selected brothers in the history of the major league draft...

Not a bad bit of publicity for my alma mater, Great Bridge High School, as the Associated Press pictures show him wearing his jersey.  With him being the first pick overall, every sports page in the country has at least a mention of him and his school.


Jackpotzrebie comment []11:17:58 AM   trackback []