Tuesday, July 05, 2005

Tropical Depression Four Update 050900Z

At 5 AM EDT the center of tropical depression four was at 12.6 North 64.4 West, 415 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  Movement is to the west at 17 mph.  Winds are 35 mph and pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 mb).

The depression looks very nice on satellite.  The system is forecast to go over Cuba into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next five days.

I will be quite surprised if this is not Tropical Storm Dennis come 11 AM EDT.  That would be the earliest ever a fourth tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic basin.  The current record is July 7, 1959.

I discussed the 00Z forecast models in an earlier post... see below

2005 Hurricane Season, Florida State comment []5:24:02 AM   trackback [] 

  Thursday, June 16, 2005

FSU Meteorlogists' work may lead to better tracking of hurricanes

Scientists are continually exploring different aspects of hurricanes to increase their understanding of how they behave. Recently, two NASA-funded scientists from Florida State University analyzed ozone levels surrounding hurricanes. Their work could lead to better methods of forecasting the paths of the deadly storms.

In their study, FSU meteorologists Xiaolei Zou and Yonghui Wu found that variations of ozone levels from the surface of the ocean to the upper atmosphere are closely related to the formation, intensification and movement of a hurricane. In studying meteorological data from 12 such storms, Zou and Wu noticed that over an area of 100 miles, the area surrounding each hurricane typically had low levels of ozone from the surface to the top of the storm. Whenever the hurricane intensified, the ozone levels throughout the storm decreased even more.

In addition, when Zou and Wu examined hurricanes using the ozone data, the eye of the storms became very clear. Because forecasters always try to pinpoint the eye of the hurricane, this knowledge will help with locating a storm's exact position and possibly lead to better tracking.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the agency that issues hurricane forecasts. Of the 12 storms analyzed, the ozone data and the NHC official report differed on the mean distance between the estimated eye by less than 18 miles during the most intense stage of the storms. When Zou and Wu added the satellite-observed ozone levels around a hurricane into a computer forecast model, the model greatly improved the predicted track that the hurricane would take...

The Tallahassee Democrat had an article today on this entitled Researchers link ozone levels storm, strength.

Some pretty pictures showing showing examples of what's being talked about can be found in NASA's feature Ozone levels drop when hurricanes are strengthening.

If the journal article were available online (via FSU's library), I would have given it a look, but it is not.  It does appear that the FSU library has the journal on dead tree, however, so I may stroll down to Dirac some time and give the article a read.  Here's the citation:

Zou, X.; Wu, Yonghui

On the relationship between Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) ozone and hurricanes

J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 110, No. D6, D06109


The $64 question is: Do we get the data frequently enough to make it an operationally useful product for NHC?  From the TOMS webpage, it would appear that the answer is no, not really.  However, given the lack of progress made in forecasting storm intensity, I think we would take anything we can get rather happily, regardless of its limitations.

Florida State, Weather comment []3:52:43 PM   trackback [] 

  Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Quiet day for Seminoles in baseball draft

No Florida State players were drafted yesterday. Also, none of our high school recruits were drafted.

In past years the draft has depleted our recruiting class. In 1997, for example, Michael Cuddyer had committed to the Seminoles and waited until the last minute to decide to play baseball instead of going to college. In 2001, Joe Mauer made a similar decision. (He was also a highly rated quarterback. At the time the joke was that he was going to be the next Chris Weinke). It is fairly hard to research other instances of this.

But it is not hard to research our players being drafted (or not). Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can look back on past years to see the last time the first Seminole picked was drafted so late:

Pick #
Stephen Drew
Tony Richie
Matt Lynch
John Ford-Griffin
Marshall McDougal
Nick Stocks
Scott Proctor
J.D. Drew
Jeremy Morris
Jonathan Johnson
Paul Wilson
John Wasdin
Kenny Felder
Eduardo Perez
Marc Ronan
Ron Lewis
Edwin Alicea
Richie Lewis
Luis Alicea
Doug Little
Jody Reed
Bruce Tanner
Jeff Ledbetter
Mike Fuentes
Jim Weaver
Craig Patterson

A few notes to this:

- While they are rare, players picked as late as Craig Patterson can have an impact. Pick 765 in 1979 belonged to the Houston Astros who drafted Glenn Davis, who would go on to be a two-time All-Star.

- In the recent years (at least) that we didn't have a player drafted early, we did have prospects who went on to play for us get drafted. In 2000, Tony Richie was drafted in the 8th round, but went to school instead and was the first Seminole picked in 2003.

- The difference between 1979 and 1980 is simple: Mike Martin became coach in 1980. With the exception of winning a national championship, he has meant as much to Florida State baseball as Bobby Bowden has meant to FSU football.

The Tallahassee Deomcrat has an article on our relative lack of star power:

Unified front helps FSU

Florida State enters the Gainesville Super Regional without the power, and even star power, that it had a year ago. Yet coaches and players insist this FSU team possesses the necessary ingredients to go even further in the NCAA postseason.

Speed, doing the little things right and patience at the plate have countered offensive deficiencies to push FSU over the 50-win plateau - something it didn't reach a year ago. The ace - Bryan Henry - and bullpen are solid. And there is something else - togetherness.

"I've never had a tighter-knit group of guys - never," FSU coach Mike Martin said. "Senior leadership. ... Four seniors and, boy, did they really get across to the other guys what is expected off the field and on the field."...

To understand how remarkable Florida State's sucess is with a lack of star seniors, consider the other fifteen teams that are still in contention for the national championship. Here are some tidbits on their draft:

- Eleven of those teams had at least one player drafted in the first round (Miami and Tennessee both had two).

- Three of the teams that did not have a player drafted in the first had at least one drafted in the second.

- Florida was the last team (besides FSU, of course,) to have a player drafted. Their first player drafted was pick #200 in the sixth round.

- As of this moment (19th round) ever round has had least one player taken from a team in the Super Regionals.

- Also, atm, there have been 61 players taken from the other fifteen schools.

- Of those schools, Baylor leads the way with seven players drafted; Tennessee, Miami, Cal State-Fullerton, and Mississippi have five apiece.

Of course, stars do not necessarily make a championship team. Arizona had eight players drafted and they were knocked off by Cal-State Fullerton in the regionals. Auburn had seven players drafted and Florida State eliminated them in the regionals as well.

I'll update this post when a Seminole does finally get drafted.

26th Round, Pick #793 by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Kevin Lynch - Right Handed Pitcher Florida State University.

So, 26 picks later than the previous 'latest first FSU' pick.  It appears that this is the latest ever for such a pick.  In the years before 1979 there were players taken in the 10th, 1st, 4th, and 8th rounds.  In 1974 there were no FSU players taken and there were only 687 picks that year.

By my count there are only eleven teams left from the field of 64 that started the College World Series playoffs that do not have a player drafted (Even Army/United States Military Academy had a player (Schuyler Williamson) taken before Lynch (#780).

Florida State comment []12:33:24 PM   trackback [] 

  Monday, February 28, 2005

FSU baseball cracks top ten in two of three polls

After sweeping Appalachian State in a rain shortened series, Florida State baseball has entered the top ten in two of the three polls.

FSU receives its hightest ranking, eighth, in the Collegiate Baseball poll. In the Sports Weekly / ESPN poll, we are ninth. Our lowest ranking, eightheenth, comes from the Baseball America poll.
Future opponents ranked ahead of us in that poll include UNC (6th), Florida (8th), Miami (9th), and Georgia Tech (17th).

Florida State has won every series it has played in so far. This weekend it starts set of ten games (against three opponents) in Hawaii. The Sminoles' first ACC series starts March 18 against Virginia Tech.

Florida State comment []10:46:23 PM   trackback [] 

  Wednesday, February 23, 2005

The media whore strikes again

Forgot to mention yesterday that the media whore was part of a front page story in the Tallahassee Democrat about blogging.

Florida State comment []11:41:49 PM   trackback [] 

  Monday, October 18, 2004

Long Day

So, in the past eighteen hours I have:

1.  Rallied for Bush-Cheney at John Edward's rally at Florida A&M University.

2.  Camped out all night at the Leon County Courthouse, so that I could

3.  Be one of the first people to vote early in the election.

Now it's naptime.  Details to follow once I am out of class this afternoon.

Florida State, Politics comment []9:30:03 AM   trackback []