"I just looked over (rather carefully) the Bush plans for the economy vs. the Kerry plans for the economy. Both plans would cost roughly $1.3 trillion over the next ten years. But there's a huge difference. Kerry would raise taxes and spend $771 billion. Bush would cut taxes by $1.2 trillion over the coming ten years, but he would only add $82 billion to spending. ... Remember, over the last 100 years if the Dow, in the month prior to the presidential election, is down 0.5% or more, the incumbent has always lost. If the Dow closes below 10000 by election time, it will have been down over .05% for the month of October and below the psychological 10000 level." – Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, 10-13-04

Is the stock market and an American election more of a illogical psychological event rather than a function of rational analysis?  According to a recent Nobel Prize winner, the psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, Ph.D., it is. So we will have to watch and see if history repeats itself.