What would you think of the investment skills of someone who lost $310 million in three months on a single trade?

"Not much" would be the kindest answer that most folks could muster. That is, until they learned how $310 million represents "only" about 1.5% of the total size of the trade. Do the math: Yes indeed, that's $21 billion. Now you know that we must be discussing someone whose wealth is on the scale of, well, Warren Buffet.

As for the trade in question -- Buffet has been betting against the U.S. dollar this year, and published reports this past weekend spelled out the size of the losses. Of course, Warren Buffet is supposed to be the ultimate buy & hold investor, so his position against the dollar may well succeed in the longer term. Plus it's hard not to admire the fortitude and fortune of an individual who can hold his ground in the face of a $310 million loss, even if it is only 1.5% of the trade.

What's the real relevance of this story?

Buffet's position regarding the dollar has been well known, especially since late last year when the whole world was bearish the dollar. This broader sentiment alone was nearly enough for us to take the opposite view -- the Elliott wave price patterns made it a virtually airtight case.  The Elliott Wave Theorist.

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