Monday, March 29, 2004

Mobile Video Player (Viewer Control) Control of the video viewing experience is the future of television. I was surprised to see a "toy" that allows kids to tote around some of their favorite Nickelodeon shows including SpongeBob Square Pants. I remember my father having a beautiful portable Casio maybe 1.5 in diameter television "watch." This was a long time ago, the picture was extremely crisp, and it worked (with over-the-air) television. I'll have to check to see what happended to the Sony portable video players because my sense is that they, too, didn't go anywhere. Anyway, a fist sign of things to come or just another pet rock? 8:40:20 PM    comment []

Sun Rises in East: Satellite Users More Likely to Have DVRs These data are actually very interesting and shows that among cable and satellite users, DVRs are no longer a mystery product. Unfortunately for cable subscribers (and great news for satellite providers Echostar and DirecTV), cable subs won't be getting much help from their providers. A quick check to Scientific Atlanta and Motorola's web sites show no press releases about shipments or planned shipments of cable set-top boxes with built-in DVRs. Ditto for cable providers including Cox, Comcast and Time-Warner. As for the following market report, notice the shocking "sun rises in the east" nature of this report. From the Stars to DVRs 2 March 2004 Satellite customers are almost twice as likely as cable customers to own digital video recorders (DVRs), such as Tivo and ReplayTV, according to a survey conducted in January by Ipsos-Insight.   Ipsos-Insight interviewed 973 adults from 16 to 19 January via telephone, from a nationally representative sample of 1,000 US adults ages 18 and older. It found that for the overall US population, the penetration rate for DVRs is 5.8%. Cable subscribers came in slightly below this rate at 5.6%, and satellite subscribers high above it at 11.4%. Interestingly, satellite subscribers are only slightly more aware of DVRs compared to cable subscribers, despite their higher ownership levels. Ipsos feels that the higher ownership levels are a result of the satellite companies, DirecTV and EchoStar, aggressively promoting DVRs to their customers. In October, Frost and Sullivan predicted that the DVR market would be worth over $15 million by 2009. For in-depth coverage of DVRs and other digital television related products, read eMarketer's Digital TV report.   PUB DATE: 02 Mar 2004 SUBJECTS: Digital Video Recorder (DVR) SUBJECT PATHS: Media & Entertainment > Consumer Electronics > Digital Video Recorder (DVR) GEOGRAPHY: United States SOURCES: Frost & Sullivan; Ipsos-Reid RELATED REPORT: Digital Television 2003: The Emergence of Advanced TV Services, August 2003 4:39:05 PM    comment []

Don't Cite Klopfenstein: DVR Sales to Grow Fivefold by 2008 I'll come back to a critique of this press release, but suffice it to say that these press releases are worth exactly what you pay for them. DVR Sales to Grow Fivefold by 2008 23 March 2004 Sales of integrated Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) will grow from 930,000 in 2002 to nearly 28 million by 2008, according to Strategy Analytics.   Starting from 2002, the market will grow at an average annual growth rate of 59% through 2008, when there will be a total of 71.5 million integrated DVR users. Integrated DVRs are a subset of the overall DVR market, and include only devices that come with a digital TV subscription (set-top box, or STB, receivers with integrated hard disk drive storage devices), not standalone DVRs like TiVo or Replay TV, or DVD recorders. Thus, the growth of integrated DVRs is tied to the growth of digital TV services. eMarketer predicts that the steady expansion of this market, including its penetration into a larger percentage of households, will continue into 2005. Gains by Scientific Atlanta in the past year have put it in a dead heat for the title of number one integrated DVR vendor with EchoStar. Strategy Analytics believes that Pace and Humax could benefit if DirecTV were to emphasize DVRs in the future, and that there's also a window of opportunity for major electronics companies like Philips, Pioneer, Samsung and Sony. For numerous charts and additional analysis of the DVR market, visit eMarketer's website and search the eStat Database. A full report studying digital TV, including DVRs and TV on-demand, will be released in early fall 2004. Sign up for report notifications at http://www.emarketer.com/products/reports/notify.php. 4:29:41 PM    comment []

PC "vs." TV Monitor Debate Rages On It's hard to believe, but the debate about the convergence of PCs and TVs continues despite much evidence that there is much market for any such device. I do continue to think that it's odd we are buying two (more and more flatscreen) monitors when at least theoretically one can serve the same function (TV viewing and PC use). It makes sense to forecast a final convergence when/if home networks take off and we can access our computer programs from any (new or digital) TV set in the household. From my vantage point, the slow rollout of HDTV in the U.S. actually portends the eventual demise of the 2-screen approach (use your laptop while watching TV). PC monitor technology keeps racing ahead while HDTV monitors keep dropping in price. Or...is there something about human behavior that will want to keep the PC use private while allowing TV viewing to be more public? Here, too, as fifth and sixth television sets show up in virtually all the bedrooms in a house, perhaps the one screen "solution" will take over. Wise observers know this is not a question of technology (it is nearly there already) but a fascinating question about human behavior. 3:21:05 PM    comment []

AOL Using TiVo Data to Discuss Users' Favorite TV Shows Patricia Karpas of AOL said the company's TV team compiles the list of clips from their favorite shows and by reading what AOL members are discussing online. They also consider data from TiVo that indicates which TV shows were paused, replayed and watched most. 3:07:45 PM    comment []

Klopfenstein Forecasts Free TiVo Subscriptions Nice archived version of where the DVR market stood from a consumer's perspective as of 2003. It's likely that the price (sticker shock for lifetime subscription) has scared many would-be TiVo subscribers away. The more TiVo gets advertising support, the less of an obstacle this will be. Despite TiVo's public comments that they will continue to rely on subscriptions as a company, that flies in the face of the history of most mass communication technologies in the U.S.  People who understand this history, for example, knew that the web was destined to become an advertiser-supported medium (it's been 10 years since most web sites were non-commercial, but that's how things started).   3:00:58 PM    comment []

From the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17555-2004Mar23.html), another example of TiVo as Keenex: Adams Morgan, Washington, D.C.: I can't set the clock on my VCR. I've read the instructions, but they're in Japanese! It's like they don't want me to know the secret of setting the clock. Do you think that would make a good story? You can use it if you want. John Kelly: You should have TiVo dude. 2:53:48 PM    comment []