The
answer is shocking at first, but makes perfect sense on further
reflection. It seems that experts (not only in politics but other areas
as well) are worse judges of what is likely to happen than a reasonably
well-informed ordinary citizen.
How could this be? Well, the real fun is in the details of the
research, but the common-sense foundation for the result is simply
stated. First, experts are likely to have some framework of
interpretation to defend, so they force facts into that framework.
Second, experts have a gazillion factors to consider when they make
predictions, so they get lost in a gazillion plus scenarios and lose
track of the obvious.
As a result of these all-too-human inclinations, experts actually
come out worse as predictors than what you would get if you just chose
outcomes at random.
Makes sense to me...
