Continuing last week’s discussion of who are our enemies and how we decide
The question of how we identify an enemy with whom we must
go to war is often complex. In the case of Al Qaeda it was not. They declared
war on us and then they attacked us. In the case of the Taliban, they gave
sanctuary to Al Qaeda. What about Iran
and North Korea? We have not gone to war with them and do not threaten to do so. How come? They both export
terror, North Korea less than Iran, but North Korea, in violation of the nuclear non-proliferation agreement, is guilty of
selling nuclear technology to a number of other countries . Both countries have
identified us as their enemies, not complimentary, but not a declaration of
war. Neither has attacked us directly.
But the president has said that given modern technology, the dynamics of
war in the age of WMD and in light of 9/11, we need not wait to be attacked but
can and should act preemptively. Both
of these nations have nuclear programs which were for a long time
clandestine. Now North Korea openly
says it must be a nuclear power to check the power of the United States. Iran,
is thought to be lying about its intentions. As well, it also maintains and
supports terrorist groups in Israel and Lebanon.Fear of starting a war we can’t
manage plays a part. North Korea has tens of thousands of artilley pieces
along the DMZ, the border area between the two Koreas. They are trained upon
the city of Seoul, the South Korean capital which in addition to the south Korean military is defended by 30,000 or more
American troops. No
matter who started another Korean war,
this artillery would immediately be used by the North to kill hundreds
of thousands in South Korea probably including large numbers of
American soldiers. Needless to say, an aggressive
stance by the U.S. is the last thing South Korea wants. There is also
the
history of Chinese intervention in the previous Korean war. We cannot be sanguine about the intentions
of China.
A tyranny
dominated by religious extremists, the Mullahs, Iran
has an elected president. There is a pro-democracy movement,
particularly among the young people. While it is not an Arab country it
is
fiercely Muslim. There has been a Muslim diaspora across the world and
particularly in Europe. Much of Russia is Muslim and many of the
countries previously dominated by the old Soviet Union are muslim. If we went to war with Iran it would look to them like we were
attempting to take over and dominate the entire Muslim world. Europe would become an unmanageable problem
for us and we would likely be friendless in our endeavor. We might find ourselves in a world war against a united Islam.
Though some might consider Iran and North Korea to represent “a gathering danger”,
it appears there is some room for negotiation. We have come to
agreements with North Korea before. Even though they were not honored,
we have
hope that new agreements can be reached which are more verifiable. We
have
found they will at least talk, indeed they were more willing than the
Bush
administration to hold talks. Because of the democracy movement in Iran
we have
hope that there will be evolutionary movement away from confrontation.
Barring verifiable imminent danger, we are not going to war with either
of these nations any time soon.
Melvyn Polatchek
Next,
Iraq.
5:17:32 PM 
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