Updated: 9/5/2004; 5:08:53 AM.
On media and politics. . .
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Tuesday, August 03, 2004

The New Terrorist Alert - Misdirection by somebody

The new terrorist threat indicating five specific buildings comes from information recently learned but created in 2000-2001. Al Qaeda has a reputation for going after what would be called soft-targets. Targets which, while they have value in the minds of the terorrists, are relatively undefended. These five buildings are now well defended. Presumably, under the soft target doctrine, they are off the Al Qaeda truck bomb target list which is the kind of attack most expected.(At least publicly) I think we are watching misdirection by somebody, either the attackers or defenders.

The attackers: They have enough trained volunteers willing to mount operations that they can leak plans and even launch decoy operations which focus on these buildings all the while launching real operations against other targets.

The defenders: They may actually have indications of other targets, but are hardening the five mentioned in the alert publicly and others more covertly.

Both: In a deadly chess game, both sides may be manuevering, the attackers against what they hope is a relatively undefended target and the defenders trying to lure an attack into a heavily if covertly defended target.

What I'm sure we are not going to see is a truck bomb driven into one of the five buildings mentioned in the new orange alert. If anything happens to one of those buildings it will be from another kind of attack, one against which we had not defended, such as a chemical or biological attack from an insider.

Mel


 


4:38:45 AM    comment []

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