Signs of hope for American foreign policy I see a few signs of hope for American policy in Iraq and Afghanistan. The first is the election in Afghanistan. While there have been some accusations of unfairness in the balloting, the absence of significant violent intereference with the voting is a great accomplishment. Success or failure in a querilla war depends upon the ability of the government to suppress violence. If violence by the opposition is minimized or abolished then the government wins. If the guerillas can mount frequent attacks, particularly multiple coordinated attacks, as happens so frequently in Iraq, then the government is in real trouble.
An election poses other problems for the opposition beyond simply the ability to mount attacks. To score a success, those attacks have to suppress the vote. People would have had to be so frightened that they did not come to the polls. Notwithstanding that there are still significant problems with warlords, drug growers and reconstituted elements of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, that the people did come and vote indicates a major victory for stability in Afghanistan. Congratulations to them!
A Battle was won in Samarra last week. The insurgency in that city was defeated by a combination of American and Iraqi forces. This is the first time that Iraqis have participated in a major battle. The occupation of that city will shortly be turned over to them. If they are able to hold on against invevitable counter attacks, then a precedent will have been set and a method created for how we fight this war.
Perhaps as a byproduct of the victory in Sammara as well as the many casualties taken in Sadr city, fighters loyal to Muktar Al Sadr, the rebel cleric who has been terrorizing this Bagdhad slum, have today begun giving up their weapons. If this is not another feint on the part of Al Sadr, it indicates that an important sore spot is about to be neutralized.
While these are hopeful signs they are only the beginning of a struggle which will go on for a long time. It is possible that the Afghanistan opposition has been saving itself for a major offensive like the infamous Tet offensive in the Vietnam war. It s possible that there will come a point at which the warlords stiffen against interference from the central government. And even though the election was peaceful, that peace was not created by the Afghan government but by occupying allies. There is a long way to go in Afghanistan.
In Iraq we still face Falujah and a number of other cities. Falujah promises to be a major battle with high casualties on both sides. American military doctrine seems to depend on our ability to locate and attack the enemy in a stronghold. When we can do that we win every battle and every war. Our weakness, well understood by our enemies, is that we do not know how to effectively fight scattered opposition. Even if we win in Fallujah and other cities where the insurgency is strong, we will still have to suppress scattered insurgents in the Sunni Triangle.
It is a long road and one wishes this had all been done better. It should have been, but for today there are at least some signs of hope.
Melvyn Polatchek
1:23:35 PM 
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