Iraqi elections Iraqi elections are due to be held in January. This is not yet for a permanent government. There will be an administration which will look much like the present interim government. The difference is that this one will have been installed as a result of a popular election and will be far less a creature of the U.S. Additionally there will be a representative concil to create a permanent constitution. IT is hoped that constitution will be created successfully and lead the way to general elections for the whole government.
Many feel these elections are doomed to failure. I don't agree. Certainly there will continue to be violence and a strong attempt to intimidate ordinary Iraqis to keep them from voting. But, unless there is a backdown, elections will be held. People will vote. Many will be intimidated, but a total will be accumulated, particularly in Shiite areas. If the Sunnis do not vote, they will have missed out on a process that could have led to inclusion. I am assuming the Kurds will hold their noses and vote. So there will be at least two out of three of the main factions voting.
With Sunni frustration, Civil war is possible, but how will the Sunnis do more than they are already doing. There would likely be an escalation of the guerilla activity, but I don't see how they could mount the larger organized civil war everyone seems to be worried about. The Kurds could do it, but I don't see them motivated at this time. They are likely to wait to see what kind of deal they get after a new constitutiion.
The real question is, will the resulting government have any legitimacy among Iraqis. We can only speculate. My speculation is there will be a somewhat better response from Iraqis, particularly Shiites. I believe that translates into a somwehat greater degree of ability for Iraqis to defend against the insurgency. This does not easily translate into a win for the U.S. or a lessening of the need for U.S. military participation. It does mean we would be a small fragile step closer to a day that Iraqis successfully defend ther own country. Meanwhile all the vulnerabilities, civil war, general chaos and violence will still exist.
Melvyn Polatchek
9:55:24 AM 
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