Friday, April 6, 2007

IPCC Report: Sending a 'very, very clear signal' to governments Here's an article about the IPCC report on global warming released today in Brussels, from Live Science. They write, "An international global warming conference approved a report Friday warning of dire threats to the Earth and to mankind -- from increased hunger to the extinction of species -- unless the world adapts to climate change and halts its progress. Agreement came after an all-night session during which key sections were deleted from the draft and scientists angrily confronted government negotiators who they feared were watering down their findings. 'It has been a complex exercise,' said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Several scientists objected to the editing of the final draft by government negotiators but in the end agreed to compromises. However, some scientists vowed never to take part in the process again. The climax of five days of negotiations was reached when the delegates removed parts of a key chart highlighting devastating effects of climate change that kick in with every rise of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, and in a tussle over the level of scientific reliability attached to key statements. "There was little doubt about the science, which was based on 29,000 sets of data, much of it collected in the last five years. 'For the first time we are not just arm-waving with models,' [ed. emphasis ours] Martin Perry, who conducted the grueling negotiations, told reporters. The United States, China and Saudi Arabia raised the many of the objections to the phrasing, often seeking to tone down the certainty of some of the more dire projections." "It said up to 30 percent of the Earth's species face an increased risk of vanishing if global temperatures rise 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the average in the 1980s and '90s. Areas that now suffer a shortage of rain will become even more dry, adding to the risks of hunger and disease, it said. The world will face heightened threats of flooding, severe storms and the erosion of coastlines... "Negotiators pored over the 21-page draft meant to be a policy guide for governments. The summary pares down the full 1,500-page scientific assessment of the evidence of climate change so far, and the impact it will have on the Earth's most vulnerable people and ecosystems. More than 120 nations attended the meeting. Each word was approved by consensus, and any change had to be approved by the scientists who drew up that section of the report. Though weakened by the deletion of some elements, the final report 'will send a very, very clear signal'' to governments, said Yvo de Boer, the U.N.'s top climate official." Category: 2008 Presidential Election 9:09:04 AM     Drought the new norm? Here's a short article about the potential for the southwestern U.S. moving into permanent drought conditions from the Denver Post. From the article, "Southwestern droughts soon will become a permanent feature of life here - not just an occasional disaster to weather, according to a new study. The Southwestern droughts of the past several dozen years are totally different from those that will occur as the planet warms, scientists discovered in a study published today in the journal Science. 'The future changes, they are something we haven't seen before,' said Jian Lu, co-author of the study and a researcher with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder... "Seeger's research team used 19 computer models to study the origins of the droughts that have been predicted for the future Southwest in a warmer world. Global warming causes a very different type of drought, by sending rainstorm and snowstorm tracks northward, and by evaporating more moisture from the ground. There's little relief, then, from shifting ocean temperatures, Seeger said. 'The next century, it will be like a permanent 1930s or 1950s drought,' he said. Changes in drought patterns may have already started, Seeger said. In 1998, a La Niña system in the tropical Pacific triggered Southwestern drought. 'That drought didn't go away when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific returned to normal,' Seeger said. 'Whether it's a sign of the anthropogenic changes already occurring, that needs to be looked at.'" Category: Colorado Water 8:38:27 AM     Task Force Meeting: Reclamation's revised Resource Management Plan and Larimer County's revised Recreation Master Plan From email from the Bureau of Reclamation (Kara Lamb), "This e-mail is to remind everyone of the upcoming Citizen's Task Force meeting on Tuesday, April 10, at 5:30 in the afternoon. The Task Force has been appointed to discuss all public comments received and make final recommendations on the recreation plans currently under development by Reclamation and Larimer County Parks and Open Lands. The meeting will begin at 5:30 pm in the Boyd Lake Room at the Larimer County Courthouse Office Building, 200 West Oak Street, Fort Collins. "As most of you know, we have been collecting comments on the Drafts of Reclamation's revised Resource Management Plan and Larimer County's revised Recreation Master Plan. The plans are sister documents that govern recreation management and development on Reclamation's four reservoirs: Carter, Horsetooth, Flatiron and Pinewood. Since the reservoirs have been in operation, Larimer County Parks and Open Land has managed the recreation on and around them. "There is also a Draft Environmental Assessment out for review that corresponds to Reclamation's obligations under the National Environmental Policy Act. "These plans are important documents and we have received many comments. The Task Force meeting is open to the public. I hope to see you there!" Category: Colorado Water 8:26:07 AM     Snowpack Here's some snowpack news from the Aspen Daily News (free registration required). They write, "A flurry of brief snowstorms at the end of March did little to boost Colorado's dwindling snowpack, experts say, and spring runoff forecasts for the Roaring Fork and other Western Slope rivers suggest streamflows well below average. The snowpack has 'deteriorated and our hopes of recovering it have diminished quite a bit at this point,' said Mike Gillespie of the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The agency on Wednesday released a river basin outlook report for the state of Colorado based on March snow data... "Snowpack in the upper Colorado River Basin, which includes the Roaring Fork drainage, fell from 95 percent of average to 81 percent of average between March 1 and April 1. Statewide, the snowpack plummeted from 92 percent of average to 75 percent of average. March precipitation has been too sparse at 74 percent of average in the upper Colorado River Basin to lead to much of a recovery, according to the report. Statewide precipitation was even lower, at 69 percent of average... "But streams and rivers in the northwestern and southwestern portions of the state are much worse off, Gillespie said, because snowpack in those areas is below or well below 70 percent of average. Some tributaries in those areas are forecast to have only 50 to 60 percent of average runoff, he explained." More news from KRDO.com in Colorado Springs. From the article, "When the blizzards came in December, it felt like we would never have to worry about a water shortage again. But with the warm and dry days we have had lately, the snow is melting too fast and is keeping Colorado Springs Utility officials on alert. When they analyze the water supply, CSU looks at 3 factors. One of them is storage, which is the amount of water in the reservoir. Right now we are 79% of normal and that is 8% to 9% higher than last year. Another factor is snow pack on the mountains. We were above average in February, but with snow melting and a lot of it evaporating, we are now at or below average... "There is some good news though. The third factor in analyzing water supply is demand, and we are doing a great job conserving water. The amount of CSU customers has gone up 17% from last year, but the amount of water usage has actually gone down by 29%. So the demand is down and storage is up, which is great." Category: Colorado Water 8:09:50 AM     Roaring Fork runoff Here's a report on the Roaring Fork River from The Aspen Times. They write, "The peak runoff on the Roaring Fork River is expected to happen earlier and be much lower than average this year, a federal agency that makes streamflow forecasts reported this week. The Roaring Fork's flow at Glenwood Springs is expected to peak around 4,100 cubic feet per second, The National Weather Service's Colorado Basin River Forecast Center concluded in its April report. The average peak is 6,150 cfs. The report indicated there is only about a 10 percent chance the peak will meet or exceed the average... "The Roaring Fork's 'normal' peak is between June 3 and 18. Last year it came May 23. It is almost certain to occur earlier than the normal period again this year, [Tom Pagano, a Portland, Ore.-based water-supply forecaster for the federal government] said." 8:01:41 AM

© Copyright 2007 John Orr. Last update: 5/1/07; 9:43:20 AM.