Bear Flag Republic Radio WeblogLiving out on the left coast |
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Saturday, March 1, 2003
NYT. Notes on the road to a decade of war.
[John Robb's Radio Weblog] comments < 7:09:34 AM 
>WSJ. Major Natural Gas crunch underway as US production quickly deteriorates and demand soars. [John Robb's Radio Weblog] comments < 7:09:01 AM
>Amazing numbers. Independent estimate of the impending war with Iraq (from the WSJ) ï Conflict: $20-80 billionï Peacekeeping: $25-105 billion (five years) ï Humanitarian assistance: $1-10 billion (Note: I think this figure is very, very low) ï Cost of governance: (civil servants and police force) $5-12 bil. ï Reconstruction including oil fields: $10-105 bil. ï Aid to allies: $6-10 bil. (Note: this looks really low considering the deal with Turkey alone is ~$25b) ï Debt claims and reparations: $62-361 bil. Bush just sent his first request into Congress for $95 b to fight this war. At the end of the day, this war may top the $494 b in current US dollars we spent on Vietnam and the $336 b we spent on the Korean war. The war in Afghanistan cost the US ~$37 b already and current plans call for spending of $7 b a year for ongoing operations. In the Iraq scenarios, the high intensity warfare planned for will cost $500 m a day. In contrast, the US spends ~$10 b a year on development and humanitarian aid. comments < 7:07:09 AM
>OIL? Here's a little back of the envelope calculation on how much oil revenues may help the US pay for the war. Iraq's current oil export revenue is ~$15 b a year on 2 m barrels a day (in comparison, Saudi Arabia's oil revenue is $60 b on 9m barrels a day of production). If everything goes right and Iraq doesn't destroy its wells and we invest heavily to ramp up production to Saudi levels, Iraq may average ~$30 b a year in oil revenue over the next 10 years (that's $300 b total). From the perspective of the US economy, Iraq's projected $30 b in oil revenue is only 0.03% of the US $10 trillion GDP. An amazingly small percentage. However, it is true that if we took all the oil revenue from Iraq over the next ten years, we could pay off many of the direct costs of the war. However, that is unlikely to happen. Here's why: Iraq has a population of ~24m, most of whom are on the dole (there isn't a viable economy in Iraq outside of oil due to policies and sanctions). Iraq's oil revenues provides ~1,250 a year in income for every Iraqi (nearly half are under the age of 18). That's half of Iraq's per capita GDP of $2,500. It's pretty clear to me that we will be unable to siphon much of this money, given the basic services, rebuilding, etc. that will be required. I guess the only real payback we could expect is that increased Iraqi production would keep oil prices low and through indirect action help the US economy (through an absence of an oil tax). This will of course result in lower oil revenues for Iraq and make less available for direct payments. Also, this could have been achieved (as well as the current massive oil tax we have already endured over the last year) without war by letting Saddam increase his production quotas. No, Iraq's oil revenues are not going to bail us out. [John Robb's Radio Weblog] comments < 7:05:55 AM
>The Linux Uprising. We could all end up running software applications written in India and running on Linux. [Edward Mitchell: Common Sense Technology] comments < 6:56:18 AM
>Is Microsoft Cloning Mac OS X? From this description, it sure sounds like they are trying to copy Apple's Mac OS X's 3-D and translucent user interface for their next generation Windows, code-named Longhorn. The unique (for Windows) feature looks to be an enhanced file system that offers many new ways to search for files and data in files. [Edward Mitchell: Common Sense Technology] comments < 6:53:13 AM
>Expert: Router holes threaten Net. A widely used technology for efficiently routing data through the Net is rife with security holes and needs to be replaced, warns a security consultant. [CNET News.com] [Edward Mitchell: Common Sense Technology] comments < 6:51:13 AM
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