The Farmer's Weblog
 |
Monday, January 6, 2003 |
Led by improving US export sales, New York futures climbed back into the upper end of the current 48-53 cent trading range this week. Friday morning[base ']s push to 51.05 cents marked the high for the week. The market will continue to batter the 51-cent mark and will break above it. Look to buy any return to 49 cents. The 53-cent level is marked with a rather large bull[base ']s eye.
5:28:13 PM
comment []
If the wrong team won the New Year[base ']s bowl game, cattle feeders were smiling by the next day as the markets moved higher. Slaughter cattle prices were $2 higher in the southern plains, with the bulk of the trade occurring at $75. Prices were $3 higher in the north with slaughter cattle prices at mostly $118 dressed. Boxed beef prices were a little lower for and the Choice-Select spread narrowed. Feeder cattle prices were generally steady in Kansas and Nebraska for 700 lb and heavier cattle but calf prices were higher.
5:23:29 PM
comment []
Similar to the cattle outlook, hog producers will see smaller supplies and higher prices in 2003 and into 2004. Liquidation of the sow herd this past year translates into a year-to-year decline in the supply of market hogs and pork production in 2003. As a result, producers will see a dramatic return to higher prices for market hogs in 2003.
5:19:07 PM
comment []
The forecast for 2003 and 2004 looks brighter for cattle producers as smaller cattle numbers should lower beef production, supporting higher cattle prices. Going into next year, the key factors impacting cattle prices will be competing meat and poultry supplies, foreign demand, feedstuff costs, and cattle weights.
5:17:54 PM
comment []
As expected, the monthly USDA-NASS Cattle on Feed report (released December 20th) showed the number of cattle on-feed as of December 1, 2002 was well below a year ago. In the historically reported 7-states, the on-feed inventory was the lowest for December 1 since 1996. At 8 percent below a year ago, the on-feed numbers were about as anticipated, but several of the categories within the report were a surprise to most observers.
5:13:13 PM
comment []
The December forecast of 2002/03 world consumption is 96.4 million bales, up 203,000 bales, or less than one quarter of one percent from the July forecast. Despite the generally stable view on total consumption, shifts have been seen between countries. The 2002/03 consumption forecast for China has increased 1.25 million bales from the initial July forecast and now stands at 27.0 million bales or 28 percent of the world total. The only other major consuming countries with consumption over 1.0 million bales that have seen increases are Turkey and Taiwan. India, Japan, Russia, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Pakistan[base ']s forecasts are unchanged from July while all other major consuming countries have seen decreases in their forecasts for 2002/03.
The forecast for world production has decreased by 2.5 million balessince July as poor weather conditions reduced prospects in several countries, including the United States. The continued drought in Australia dramatically reduced the forecast for the 2002/03 Australian crop from 2.9 million bales to 1.5 million. China[base ']s production is up 1.0 million bales as both forecasted area and yield have increased. Trade levels are down slightly due to lower demand in importing counties, such as Indonesia and Korea, and lower production in exporting counties, such as the United States, Australia, Egypt, Greece, and FZA.
5:07:13 PM comment []
5:03:46 PM
comment []
