The Farmer's Weblog
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Monday, January 27, 2003 |
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9:33:50 PM
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U.S. exports are on track to meet the 10.8 million bales (10.38 million running bales) export forecast. Through January 2nd exports totaled 3.32 million running bales, 32.0 percent of the forecast total. Over the 1990/91 to 2001/02 period, exports in the 23rd week of the marketing year averaged 33.7 percent of total exports for the year. Weekly exports have also followed historical patterns. During the first quarter of the marketing year weekly exports, while variable, were relatively flat. Since then weekly exports have trended up at a significant rate and are currently at roughly 2.5 times the average for the first quarter. Historically weekly exports peak around the 30th week of the marketing year and then trend back down. For this season, stronger import demand is expected in China and India during the later part of the season.
9:05:09 PM
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"Based on the harvest to date, which is about 90 percent completed, state agriculture officials said the average yield for upland cotton from the 2002 growing season has been 1,262 pounds per acre.
As for the yields, he said they were good in part because it was a dry year but not too hot during the summer.
"Heat can really affect cotton. We hit it right this year," Lavis said. "
Check out the heat stress reports from http://ag.arizona.edu/azmet/data/00stress1.txt -- No heat stress yet but take a look around the 4th of July. This is an important determinant of yields.
8:51:35 PM comment []
Is interesting to note the increase in the use of biotech crops in countries like India.
8:42:36 PM comment []
Is this a real alternative to oil? An interesting analysis.
8:04:42 PM comment []
7:30:00 PM
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Recent declines in eggs set and chicks placed for broiler production have translated into some modest declines in broiler slaughter. The USDA-NASS Monthly Poultry Slaughter report (released January, 3rd) showed slaughter down from the prior year. Broiler slaughter for November 2002 totaled 639.8 million head, down 4 percent from 2001?s and the smallest reported for 2002. On a monthly basis, November slaughter declined 131.2 million head (17 percent) from October, which was the largest month for broiler slaughter during 2002. The last time broiler slaughter posted a lower number was in April 2000 (635.9 million head). However, there was one less slaughter day in November meaning slaughter was actually up about one percent from the year earlier. Still, that was a much smaller than normal year-to-year increase.
7:28:59 PM
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As expected, the USDA-NASS Crop Production report (released January 10th) showed nationwide hay stocks down from a year earlier as of December 1, 2002. U.S. hay stocks on December 1 were reported at 103.8 million tons. That was down 6.8 million tons, or 6 percent, from 2001?s. Compared to December 1, 2000, U.S. hay stocks were down by about 1.8 million tons. Although several states posted increased hay stocks, many areas of the country hurt by drought in 2002 face tight supplies and high prices.
7:25:35 PM
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Spot cotton trading continued moderate to heavy in the Desert Southwest (DSW). Supplies decreased but remained at a moderate level. Demand was good. Prices were slightly weaker. Mixed lots of color grades 11 and 21, leaf 1 and 2, staple 36 and mike 35-49 traded at around 275 points on NY March futures, uncompressed, FOB warehouse. Similar qualities of cotton that miked 50 and higher traded at around 100 points off March, same terms as above. Color grade 41, leaf 2 and 3, staple 35 and mike 35-49 traded at around even March, same terms as above. Growers continued to pledge some of their cotton to the CCC loan. Agents for domestic mills purchased a light volume of cotton for March to September shipment. Some ginning from modules continued.
7:19:10 PM
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Cattle on Feed
The USDA releases the Cattle on Feed report on Friday and it contained few surprises. There were 10.59 million head of cattle on feed as of January 1, 2003. This is an 8 percent decline from 2002 and a decline of 10 percent from 2001. This decrease was in line with trade expectations. December placements were a little higher than expectations, but December marketings were also above trade expectations. It appears that northern sellers (Colorado +37%, Iowa +20% and Nebraska +14%) were particularly aggressive with marketings.
7:16:32 PM comment []
