A Long Missive From Scoble

Eric Kidd asks "is there a future for me in a world controlled by Microsoft and Open Source?"

Disclaimer: I work for Microsoft. These are my opinions. Yadda yadda ya.

Eric says "The Microsoft future can only end in two ways: The grey death of total platform monopoly, or the sucking pit of government regulation. I don't want either choice when I'm 55."

I see another future.

I got this vision while eating ice cream with my son Patrick today. See, my first job, back when I was a freshman at Prospect High School, was serving ice cream. I still enjoy the industry's product (despite it being unhealthy for me).

Let's go back 10 years, OK? Remember Baskin Robbins? 10 years ago they owned a near monopoly on ice-cream outlets. At least they did in Silicon Valley. Yeah, they had a few competitors here and there, but they had the majority of the market. I bet if you had told Baskin Robbin's executives 10 years ago "there's gonna be a new chain that's gonna come along that's gonna obliterate your market and change the rules" that their execs would have laughed in your face.

I bet that Baskin Robbins had lots of Eric Kidds back then who said "I sure wish I could make a mint selling ice cream like Baskin Robbins, but these guys have the world all wrapped up."

Enter Cold Stone Creamery.

This upstart chain has completely changed the rules of what an ice cream store should be. In every Cold Stone, the employees are upbeat. Happy, even. Excited. Why? Freaking profits baby!

By all measure, Cold Stone should be a failure. It entered an already-mature market. Ice cream is ice cream, right? You think Software Developers have a tough time coming up with a "new big idea?" Try being an ice cream executive. Go ahead. Stare at the stuff. It's milk fat and sugar and a few other things. There's NO WAY TO INNOVATE, right? Hey, did you realize that Cold Stone charges each of its customers MORE than Baskin Robbins does? For the same frozen milk fat and stuff. And, it entered a market with a near monopoly position.

Oh, and everytime I eat at Cold Stone, I'm stuck sitting in line. Long lines. 13 minutes today. Yes, I count these things. Customers should be pissed. Guess what, they aren't! Instead, they LIKE waiting in line. Don't believe me? Ask some of their customers.

Cold Stone Creameries are popping up faster than Krispy Kreme dealerships. They are kicking Baskin Robbins' ass.

How did they do it? Eric Kidd, please pay attention. They came up with a new concept.

Instead of just serving ice cream, they mix stuff into it. And, they have employees who act like they are a member of a cult. They even sing you a song if you tip them (each store's crew usually knows at least a half dozen songs, by the way).

But, their ice cream is superior to Baskin Robbins and even if it isn't, the experience of getting ice cream there is sublime.

Now, let's get back to Eric, now that we know it's possible to take on "a big evil corporate behemoth who has everything all sewn up." Eric: you'll be here when you're 55. Me too (I hope).

I know that my job at Microsoft depends on customers continuing to buy our software. I don't look at my job at Microsoft as an entitlement. Business just doesn't work that way.

Let's just head on up the street from Microsoft for a good lesson in corporate economics, shall we? Remember Boeing? They nearly own the market for airplane manufacturing. One little problem: the airline industry is in a bit of trouble lately. So is Boeing. Tens of thousands of my new neighbors have been thrown outta work here in the Pacific Northwest. And, Boeing might even make its next plane somewhere else, adding insult to injury.

Boeing had economic strength, but even that strength didn't protect its employees.

What's my lesson? Microsoft's largess ain't gonna protect me for 18 years unless it continues to have customers who love and want to use its products.

For me, as an evangelist of Microsoft's products, I wanna find ways we can both win. How will the next version of Windows be judged? To my mind, it'll only win if there's an interesting group of new products built on top of it.

Let me ask you a question: if Longhorn ships, and there's no new software for it, why will anyone upgrade? And, if no one upgrades Windows, then, what'll happen to my job?

I guarantee you, I'll be out on the street. That's the way business works.

In my mind, my job DEPENDS on having software guys like Eric Kidd developing for Windows.

OK, I can tell I haven't convinced you yet. One more attempt: I'm reading "Rules for Revolutionaries" by Guy Kawasaki. Yeah, he's that fanatical Macintosh evangelist. In many ways, my job at Microsoft was modeled around work he did at Apple.

In the book, Guy talks about the early days of the Macintosh.

Did you realize that in 1985 through 1987 Apple was nearly broke and Mac sales were almost non-existent? I remember those days. Why was Apple broke? Why wasn't the Macintosh selling?

Guy reveals in his book the simple answer: there weren't any "killer apps" for it.

Did you realize that no one at Apple recognized when the killer app developer walked in the door? Ever hear of Paul Brainerd? You ever heard of Aldus? PageMaker?

Wait a second, if the world worked by the rules that Eric Kidd spells out, Aldus and Paul Brainerd wouldn't be able to exist. After all, big companies ruled in the mid-80s just like they rule today. IBM was there. Xerox had the world in its fists, before screwing it all up. Apple was even trying to do its own software. Microsoft was there, too.

Yet, here comes Paul Brainerd. Right through the front door of Apple. And, no one realizes that he would be the guy to save the Macintosh. Literally. Did you realize that Paul didn't work for a big company?

So, my message to Eric is: I'm looking for a killer app for Longhorn. I have no idea what the app will be. I have no idea who the developer will be. But, I do know that I'm looking.

My job at Microsoft depends on it.

Eric, my door is open.

What's my vision? My vision is seeing Eric Kidd coming up with a new concept that makes him freaking rich. I see him coming up with a new concept that proves all of the industry's myths to be incorrect.

I see him coming up with "the Cold Stone" of the software industry.

See, stop looking at the world like it's a zero sum game and that the only way you can win is to be like Baskin Robbins (or unseat them from their market dominance).

One nice thing about software is that you CAN change the world.

Look at the blogging industry. Did you realize that most of the blog companies only have a couple of employees? Geesh, how did Microsoft MISS that category?

Or, look at Instant Messenging software. Let's go back to 1996. Microsoft was just as dominant in the industry then as it is now. So, where the hell did ICQ come from? The three kids who wrote ICQ went on to sell their company in 1998 for something like $290 million in cash. Yeah, maybe the environment today isn't that good for hitting the jackpot like that, but let me tell you, you can still come up with a "Cold Stone."

Think you have a "Cold Stone" concept? You know where to find me.

[The Scobleizer Weblog]

Robert is exactly right. Something will come out of right field to knock MS on its butt. But all the examples he uses demonstrate that the disruptive change comes from OUTSIDE the core of the company. The Innovator's Delimma describes this in detail. It is highly unlikely that the new tech will be under MS control. It is just the nature of the beast. No matter how much the businessmen at MS try to control, embrace and extend every technology, they will not be able to control this.I think that there will be an increasing dissonance between the creative talent at MS trying to create the next stage and the business side concerned simply with control.  9:01:15 PM    

What You Can Do About Bush... (Harley Sorensen). What You Can Do Abvout Bush... (Harley Sorensen) [Common Dreams]

Holey moley. As long as articles like this can still be published in mainstream papers, and the names of those that respond are not put into some sort of government database , we can still affect change.  8:41:48 PM    

Guess What? The Anti-War Folks Were Right... (Neil Wollman/Leonard Williams). Guess What? The Anti-War Folks Were Right... (Neil Wollman/Leonard Williams) [Common Dreams]

As long as we continue down a destructive path, it does not matter who is right. We need to stop.  8:39:26 PM    

Protesting May Be Our Final Distinction From '1984'... (Michael Schuler). Protesting May Be Our Final Distinction From '1984'... (Michael Schuler) [Common Dreams]

This is what keeps us from a fascist state. As long as the right to protest, to petition that state for redress, continues, there is still hope.  8:37:30 PM    

Deflation Risks Bigger Than Optimists Let On... (Robert Reich). Deflation Risks Bigger Than Optimists Let On... (Robert Reich) [Common Dreams]

The government now has very few tools left to prevent deflation if we head into that cycle. They can try to create inflation but, because of globilization, deflation elsewhere will make it harder for us to fight it here. This is scary stuff. We are a long way from a stable economy. I think all it will take is another 'even' to send us into another tailspin.  8:30:38 PM    

US General Condemns Iraq Failures [CommonDreams NewsWire]

Retired military sometimes have their own ax to grind but I believe that Nash is describing things very accurately. It seems that Iraq is begining to develop into a similar situation as Afghanistan. We could be stuck here for years, with American men placed in increasingly more dangerous positions.  8:05:09 PM    

A Mathematician Crunches the Supreme Court's Numbers

7:58:31 PM    

True Conservatives Should Take A Stand... (Robert Steinback). True Conservatives Should Take A Stand... (Robert Steinback) [Common Dreams]

I keep asking myself this all the time. There is little compassion in the conservatism practiced by the current administration. Moderates of every stripe are being forced to chose more extreme positions. I do not think this bodes well for politcal discourse over the next few years.  7:47:33 PM    

The Road to Coverup Is the Road to Ruin... (Robert Byrd). The Road to Coverup Is the Road to Ruin... (Robert Byrd) [Common Dreams]

Another speech by Robert Byrd. He has been making a lot of them lately.  7:42:59 PM    

Openness makes software better sooner

7:40:31 PM    

Hundreds of Iraqi Civilians Killed by Faulty US Cluster Bombs [CommonDreams NewsWire]

The problems of cluster bombs has been well documented since the first Gulf War. Britain used newer bombs that left few duds. The US, in order to save money, used older bombs that leave anywhere from 16 to 40% duds. Collateral damage is way down on the list of priorities. The Iraqis will have to deal with these bombs for many years.   7:35:47 PM    

Kaptur: Pentagon will look into burned Iraqi kids

7:29:37 PM    

Burned Iraqi Children Turned Away By US Army Doctors [CommonDreams NewsWire]

The is an Associated Press story. What brought tears to my eyes was not the callousness of the US doctors. Though disappointing, the heartlessness of some of these doctors has been seen before. What upset me was the heartfelt horror the American soldier who asked for help for the Iraqi children expressed when he saw American doctors turn away from helping. He gave the father bandages himself. This was not a raw recuit but a sergeant with 14 years experience. And the way the story got out is heart tugging. An AP photographer took a picture of Borell being comforted by a fellow soldier. When Borell's wife saw the photo, she contacted the AP with details that Borell had provided in a letter. This sort of incident is more corrosive to our own troops, who view themselves as liberators, than it is to the Iraqis. It smacks too much of American hospitals turning away needy people because they do not have enough money. I hope Borell does not get into any trouble for bringing up an incident that is embarassing to the US authorities. They usually do not look kindly on peple that do this.  7:20:59 PM    

The Problem of Clear Channel

Signs of death.

Got lots of emails pointing to Signals from Nowhere, by Walter Kirn in the NY Times Magazine. Outstanding recollection of what Real Radio was all about in its golden age, which ended when ownership deregulation allowed Clear Channel to buy up everything:

You used to be able to do that in America: chart your course by the accents, news and songs streaming in from the nearest AM transmitter. A drawling update on midday cattle prices meant I was in Wyoming or Nebraska. A guttural rant about city-hall corruption told me I'd reach Chicago within the hour. A soaring, rhythmic sermon on fornication ? Welcome to Alabama. The music, too. Texas swing in the Southwest oil country. Polka in North Dakota. Nonstop Led Zeppelin, Black Sabbath and Jethro Tull in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs. What's more, the invisible people who introduced the songs gave the impression that they listened to them at home. They were locals, with local tastes.

I felt like a modern Walt Whitman on those drives. When I turned on the radio, I heard America singing, even in the dumb banter of ''morning zoo'' hosts. But then last summer, rolling down a highway somewhere between Montana and Wisconsin, something new happened. I lost my way, and the radio couldn't help me find it. I twirled the dial, but the music and the announcers all sounded alike, drained, disconnected from geography, reshuffling the same pop playlists and canned bad jokes.

What a miserable trip. I heard America droning.

Recently, I found out whom to blame: a company called Clear Channel Communications. The mammoth buyer and consolidator of hundreds of independent local radio stations ? along with its smaller competitors, Infinity Broadcasting and Cumulus Media ? is body-snatching America's sonic soul, turning Whitman's vivacious democratic cacophony into a monotonous numbing hum.

No matter where a person lives these days (particularly in Minot, N.D., where Clear Channel runs all six commercial stations in town), he's probably within range of an affiliate, if not three or four, since the company buys in bulk: pop stations, rock stations, talk stations, the works. Worse, quite a few of these stations don't really exist ? not in the old sense. They're automated pods, downloading their programming from satellites linked to centralized, far-off studios where announcers who have never even set foot in Tucson, Little Rock, Akron or Boston ? take your pick ? rattle off promos and wisecracks by the hundreds, then flip a switch and beam them to your town as if they're addressing its residents personally, which they aren't. They don't even know the weather there.

What results is a transcontinental shower of sound that seems to issue from heaven itself, like the edicts of the Wizard of Oz.

Here's a fear: That local newspapers will get just as killed as local radio, by the deregulation of media ownership. What happens when Clear Chanel or Cumulus Media buys up the local newspapers?

[Later...] Matt responds:

But what I really don't understand is, if it's so awful, why do people listen?  After all, without listeners there would be no advertisers and ClearChannel would be dust.

So who loves this shit?

I answered in a comment there at his blog.

[The Doc Searls Weblog]

Another important aspect of the Clear Channelization of the US is the inability to get local news in an emergency. There have been instances of police trying to contact the local stations in order to get out important news only to find that there are no longer any local stations. I think that this is one reason music sales are down. Music depends on the creativity of the artists but this creativity disappears as Clear C hannel removes the tails of the bell curve only permitting the cautious side of music to be played. They will not know what hits them when the market changes.  6:37:36 PM