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 Sunday, August 15, 2004
The shifting threat from Al Qaeda. The Economist has a good rundown of the latest intelligence about Al Qaeda and its altered post-9/11 state, reaffirming some points that Daniel Byman made a few weeks ago. The good parts version: With most of its leaders probably now... [Daniel W. Drezner]
I think he is right. Not too many spectacular events. they require much too large an organization to effectively fund and complete. Much easier to find people to do smaller events. But they can keep a steady line of these going for some time, I fear. 11:02:16 PM 
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Bush choked on 9/11. Bill Maher has an excellent op-ed column in the New York Daily News, entitled "Bush blew it the morning of 9/11." In it, he points out the sheer, breathtaking stupidity of Bush's actions on that fateful day. It wasn't just the seven minutes of deer-in-the-headlights panic memorialized in Fahrenheit 9/11. No, it's much worse.
The fact that Bush wasted 27 minutes that day -- not only the seven minutes reading to kids but 20 more at a photo op afterward -- was, in my view, the most outrageous thing a President has done since Franklin Roosevelt tried to pack the Supreme Court.
[...]
Republicans are tying themselves in knots trying to defend Bush's actions that morning. The excuses they put forward are absurd:
- He was "gathering his thoughts." This was a moment a President should have imagined a thousand times. There is no time in the nuclear age for a President to sit like Forrest Gump "gathering thoughts" after an attack has begun. Gathering information is what he should have been doing.
- From the White House press secretary: "The President felt he should project strength and calm until he could better understand what was happening." I agree that gaining a better understanding of what was happening should have been his goal. What I don't get is how that goal was reached by just sitting there instead of getting up and talking to people. Is he a psychic? Was he receiving the information telepathically?
- "He didn't want to scare the children." Vice President Cheney has said of Kerry, "The senator from Massachusetts has given us ample reason to doubt the judgment he brings to vital issues of national security." So Kerry's judgment is suspect, but at a moment of national crisis, Bush's judgment was: Better not to scare 20 children momentarily than to react immediately to an attack on the country!
If he had just said, "Hey, kids, gotta go do some President business - be good to your moms and dads, bye!" my guess is the kids would have survived.
I cannot see how someone who considers himself a conservative can defend George Bush's inaction. Conservatives pride themselves on being clear-eyed and decisive. They don't do nuance, and they respect toughness. Keep this one in your arsenal of talking points. The next time you're in a discussion with a conservative friend or family member, lay this one on them. Plant the seeds of doubt. Tell them if they're not sure, they can look it up in the 9/11 Commission report. It's all documented in Chapter 1. As a bonus, tell them they should read Chapter 8, too.
WHat ush did, and did not do, during that 27 minutes will stand as a mute testimony to his Presidency in the years to come. Kerry sees a man sees a Senator apparetly having a heart attack and quickly makes the right decision, saving a life. Bush did nothing but wait for others to tell him what to do. Aides held up a sign telling him to say nothing until they figured out what he should say. And this is resolute leadership? Too bad for him it was caught on videotape. 10:58:10 PM
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People are starting to get it. On the "Republicans for Kerry" theme that my partner the fluffit started yesterday:
A surprisingly non-snarky story in the WaPo reminds us that Kerry & Edwards are doing what Kerry does best at this stage: talks to people, shakes their hands, kisses their babies, listens to what they have to say. Even Republicans are noticing the difference.
On Friday and Saturday, Edwards held "front porch" visits with residents struggling with pocketbook issues. In Flint, Mich., he talked to three people worried about the job market, and in Belle Plaine, Minn., he chatted with four families concerned about health care costs. He has also been the star attraction at Democratic rallies. The events have put him largely among the faithful, who roar their approval at his calls for repairing America's image around the world and investing in education, health care and job growth at home.
But at least one Republican has been sold. Joyce Slater, 73, a registered Republican, stood in the rain waiting for Edwards at a rally in Flint on Friday afternoon.
"I'm very disappointed in Bush. We've got 931 dead boys, and for what? And how many injured? Thousands. And thousands of dead Iraqis and for what?" Slater asked
A. [First Draft]
You will not see Bush on a front porch nor will you see a Democrat at a Bush rally. They are not allowed in. So Kerry/ Edwards are the only ones speaking directly and openly to those of the opposite party. They seem to be doing a great job of coaxing Republicans for Kerry to appear. So far, not many Democrats for Bush (At least outside of political hacks like Zell Miller.) 10:30:09 PM
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Bush Is Losing Badly Among Younger Voters. Do you know anyone between the ages of 18 and 29? Make sure they register and vote:
Mounting concerns over the war and the sluggish economy have sent President Bush's popularity plummeting among young adults in the past four months, complicating his bid for reelection and challenging Republicans to increase their efforts to win over new or lightly committed young voters.
Four years ago, network exit polls found that Bush and Democrat Al Gore split the vote of 18-to-29-year-olds, with Gore claiming 48 percent and Bush getting 46 percent -- the best showing by a Republican presidential candidate in more than a decade.
But that was then. In the latest Post-ABC News poll, taken immediately after the Democratic National Convention, Kerry led Bush 2 to 1 among registered voters younger than 30. Among older voters, the race was virtually tied. About 1 in 6 voters in 2000 was between 18 and 29 years old.
[snip]
Bush's problems with younger voters began long before the Democratic convention, Post-ABC polls suggest. The last time Bush and Kerry were tied among the under-30 crowd was in April. In the five surveys since then, Bush has trailed Kerry by an average of 18 percentage points.
Virtually every other major poll conducted in the past month confirms Kerry's popularity with voters under the age of 30. A poll by the Pew Center for the People & the Press released Thursday reported Kerry still ahead by 18 points among this group.
Taken together, those surveys suggest that if the election were held today, Bush would do about as well among younger voters as GOP presidential candidate Robert J. Dole in 1996. Dole lost to President Bill Clinton by 53 percent to 34 percent among 18-to-29-year-olds. Bush's father split the young vote in 1988 and lost to Clinton by nine points in 1992. The Reagan era marked the recent high-water mark for the GOP with younger voters, who gave the Gipper his biggest victory margin of any age group in 1984.
[First Draft]
This demographic will be tough for Bush to get. They get their news from The Daily Show, meaning that they are actually more apt to see political chicanery for what it is, as opposed to those who watch the maor media outlets. As the group most likely to die in war, they would much prefer that war was a last resort rather than a first one. I think they will trust a man who not only fought in a ill-concieved war but then came back and protested against it. Much more so than a rich kid who used influence to get himself a cushy stateside National Guard gig, which he did not even complete. 10:26:42 PM
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Democracy Breaks Out at Opening of Iraqi National Conference. I'm sure this is not what the Bush administration had in mind:
A NATIONAL conference, hailed as Iraq's first experiment in democracy for decades, got off to a rocky start today when more than 100 delegates walked out to protest against fighting in the holy city of Najaf.
Dozens of people leapt out of their seats as soon as UN special envoy to Iraq Ashraf Jehangir Qazi finished his opening speech. "As long as there are air strikes and shelling we can't have a conference," some shouted.
Yahya Mussawi, from a Shiite Muslim political grouping that helped defuse a spring uprising by militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr, jumped on the stage before he was forced down by chief organiser Fuad Maasum.
"Part of democracy is that you listen to the Iraqi people. It is time that you heard us and we ask that military operations stop in Najaf immediately and dialogue takes place," Mr Mussawi shouted.
"Listen to us, prime minister, listen to us," said the protesters, as Mr Maasum announced a 30-minute break in the proceedings.
[snip]
Delegates also demanded that a national council, which the conference delegates are due to appoint, be allowed to impeach members of the interim government if they decided they are not serving the interests of Iraqis.
They also demanded that groups excluded from the event, among them Sadr's camp, be included.
During the break another powerful voice spoke up:
During the break, mortar bombs exploded in the Green Zone, shaking the building as organisers of the conference screamed at participants to get away from the windows of the convention centre.
[First Draft]
Since the voices of anti-war protestors in this country were not listened to, I do not expect those in Iraq to be listened to either. Democracy in the face of authoritarian government is usually a sock pupper show. 10:21:13 PM
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"If Bush can.... "If Bush can win reelection despite the failure of his two most consequential -- and truly radical -- decisions, he will truly be a political miracle man. But as his own nominating convention approaches, the odds are against him." Those... [Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall]
Bush has more to worry about than Kerry. he is losing steam the polls and inside the Beltway. He is not giving anyone a reason to vote for him. What happens if many Republicans see that their own reelections may be in jeopardy because of him. Many states that appeared to be safe are not so safe for Republicans today. What will the party do? Most likely nothing but it does make a nice dram. 10:18:51 PM
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Bush Pollster: Negative Ad Campaign has Failed. So watch for the Bushies to turn it up to eleven:
President Bush's multimillion-dollar attempt to define Democrat John Kerry negatively through advertising hasn't done a good enough job and "isn't mission accomplished," a Republican pollster says.
"The Bush campaign needs to move Kerry further to the left to make him unelectable," pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote Thursday in a memo. Continuing to allow Kerry to be seen by voters as "a benign liberal," Fabrizio wrote, is "a grave and costly strategic error."
The memo outlined results of a poll Fabrizio's firm took of voters in 19 states where most of Bush's television ads have run. The poll found that the Bush-Cheney campaign's effort "isn't mission accomplished,"' wrote Fabrizio, who was Bob Dole's pollster in the Republican's unsuccessful 1996 presidential bid.
[First Draft]
Watch the slime really come out now. Bush can only appear in front of hand-chosen crowds, who sign loyalty oaths and ask nonsense questions, in between the gushing over how wonderful he is. An inappropriate T-shirt or even cell phone number and you do not get in. Kerry is appearing in fron of crowds approaching 50,000, open to anyone. Which one is really courageous and feels that his ideas should be heard by everyone? I just hope Kerry has a very good security team. 10:15:25 PM
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News Blackout Ordered for Najaf. This can't be a good sign:
Last night Iraqi police ordered all journalists to leave Najaf. Four police cars surrounded a hotel where journalists were staying and presented the order, signed by Najaf's police chief, Brigadier Ghalib al-Jazaari, the Associated Press news agency reported. Police said reporters who remained would be arrested, journalists said.
What is it that they don't want the world to see? An assault on the Imam Ali shrine perhaps?
Meanwhile, Sen. Richard Lugar is encouraging Iraqi PM Allawi to wipe out Muqtada al Sadr's militia, while Sen. Joe Biden is encouraging Iraqi forces to attack the Imam Ali shrine instead of US troops leading the assault.
If Biden thinks that Shi'ite Muslims will forgive desecration of the most holy place as long as the hands firing the bullets belong to Iraqis he's sadly mistaken. Allawi is a US puppet, there is no distinction in the Islamic world between what he does and what US forces do. [First Draft]
In a clan oriented society such as Iraq, attacking such a place will not be in our best interests. It is something that Shia and Sunni will remember for a very, very long time. I am not very hopeful. We may win the battle once again and lose the war. this is not an eney that we can defeat simply by the use of force. 10:12:07 PM
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Kerry and Bush. KERRY AND BUSH....Dick Cheney is mocking John Kerry for supposedly believing we need to be more sensitive in our war against terror. Perhaps he needs to take this up with his boss: John KerryGeorge BushI believe I can fight a... [Political Animal]
Cheney can be a real tool. His own boss has said we need to be sensitive, yet Cheney and his wife try to portray Kerry as a wimp because he states the same thing. Cheney and Bush and their surrogates very seldom miss an opportunity to demonstrate what big organs they have by denigrating the masculinity of their opponents. Considering how much they do this, I figure they have a small inferiority complex in this area. Since they all refused to go to Vietnam, they all need to prove what 'men' they are by accusing others, ones who really did do a brave, manly thing, of being too weak. 9:59:03 PM
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More on Najaf. MORE ON NAJAF....Knight Ridder reports that the assault on Najaf is running into a familiar problem:"We received a report that a whole battalion (in Najaf) threw down their rifles," said one high-ranking defense ministry official, who didn't want his name... [Political Animal]
We would be horrified at our National Guard being asked to fight and kill Americans (i.e. Kent State) yet Iraqis are being asked to do just that. And, instead of being heroic for sticking to the moral thing to do and quitting, they are discussed as cowardly. 9:54:11 PM
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Wrong Time for an E-Vote Glitch. An embarrassing snafu with an electronic voting machine surfaces during a demonstration for California officials. Voting activists say it proves the point about why the machines need a paper trail. By Kim Zetter. [Wired News]
ANY politician who fails to push for a paper trail should be drummed out of office. This is like the '60s motto that the computer is always right. Incredible. We did it again and the same thing happened,' said Darren Chesin, a consultant to the state Senate elections and reapportionment committee. 'The problem was not with the paper trail. The paper trail worked flawlessly, but it caught a mistake in the programming of the touch-screen machine itself. For some reason it would not record or display the votes on the Spanish ballot for these two ballot measures. The only reason we even caught it was because we were looking at the paper trail to verify it And California looks to delay a paper-trail until at least 2006. I guess the only way to be sure of a vote is to vote by mail ;-) 9:35:49 PM
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