Wednesday, March 13, 2002

ANALYSIS: A cheery view of the economy Christian Science Monitor Service March 13, 2002 8:27 a.m. EST "In not much more than a week, perceptions of the U.S. economy have shifted from glimmers of recovery to visions of clear-cut growth. Acceleration is the trend from the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange to the factory floors of General Motors." "The stock market has rediscovered the word "up." Unemployment edged downward last month, defying most forecasts. And consumer confidence rose solidly yesterday in a new Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll. Debate among economists has shifted from when a recovery will begin to how strong it will be. A few even question whether the U.S. really had a recession last year. (Only in the third quarter did the economy actually shrink.) And while some forecasters say heavy debts could restrain America's high-spirited consumers, others talk of full-fledged 5 percent growth." "'The underlying trend of the economy is extremely positive' . . . Particularly encouraging . . . are numbers showing an upturn in the hard-hit manufacturing sector. . . . 'Economic confidence is sweeping the nation, across all regions, age groups, income levels, and party affiliations' . . . Indeed, some say the economic engine could sputter as consumer spending maxes out. But for now, those gloomier economists can only apologize for missing the positive surprises." "Economists generally agree on why the upturn is occurring. . . . The Fed cut interest rates 11 times last year Washington has conducted a stimulative fiscal policy The passage by Congress of an economic-stimulus package Consumers kept up a buying spree." "Most economists figure on the economic pace stepping up as the year moves forward." "A key measure of the nation's money supply, known as M2, stands 10 percent above what it was a year ago. That is considered rapid growth. Money is the fuel for economic growth. Too much of it, though, can fuel inflation rather than real growth." "But for now, optimism reigns." ... [more] 8:39:32 AM  Google It!  comment  []

Retail sales up in February, government reports "After a tightfisted January, shoppers opened their wallets and pocketbooks in February - and pushed sales at the nation's retailers up by 0.3 percent. The advance - the largest in four months - came after Americans trimmed their spending by 0.3 percent in January, reflecting in large part a drop in spending on cars and trucks as free-financing offers waned, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday." "Although the 0.3 percent rise in February was smaller than many economists were forecasting, the fact that spending went up should be an encouraging sign that consumers, the lifeblood of the economy, may continue to spend - albeit modestly - and help the recovery." ... [more] 8:36:21 AM  Google It!  comment  []