Dave Winer has his take on how Jabber will progress. I can't say that I agree with the idea that Jabber won't be carrying payload -- I think there's a lot of value (and efficiency) to be had from having notifications also carrying the small bits that have changed. That said, it's not a bad way to bootstrap Jabber into the mainstream.

Ideally, I want world domination with Jabber..it could add a lot of value to a lot of apps. Of course, every technology pundit says something similar about their own tech. Realistically , I want to see Jabber act as a conduit towards interoperability. In the end, it's not so important what protocol we speak, or what communication layers we use. It is of the utmost priority that we (the community that is the Internet) find a way to communicate equally and openly. This philosophy is at the heart of Jabber, and I, for one, will consider Jabber a success if it encourages this mindset.

I agree with both Dave and Andre as far as the client stuff goes -- I think it's possible for both of them to be right. It's unrealistic to expect that everyone will work off the same client code base. However, that sort of mindset is in keeping with the way that the web works today. So really, I think Dave's viewpoint that Jabber clients will first be apps is the shorter term, realist view of Jabber, while Andre takes a more utopian view that all clients can be consolidated into a single, super-moduler app.  8:41:23 AM