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Friday, March 01, 2002 |
"Online digital music sales a bust. A column published in the latest edition of Billboard notes that the music industry has spent over $4 billion on online digital music sales, yet has made less than $1 million in revenue. [kuro5hin.org]
So we run a bunch of market tests whose unstated design criteria is don't do anything that threatens our current business models. We actively ignore user experiments that demonstrate demand for new models and label all these potential customers thieves. Then we start the lobbying process to persuade legislators to declare pi to be 3.0 (sorry that was another stupidity) -- to reverse the tide of technology innovation. Why is none of this a surprise?" [McGee's Musings]
McGee's commentary, the full Kuro5hin commentary, and the original Billboard article are all worth your time. I'd love to quote the entire Billboard article, but here's one point I want to make:
"Imagine an industry that has allocated (and mostly spent) more than $4 billion in funds on ventures that have thus far made back less than $1 million—globally. Think about it. Spending $4 billion to earn under $1 million.... [ OC&C Strategy Consultants] merged comprehensive fact-finding discussions with more than 50 players in the U.S. and the U.K.—including music labels, online music retailers, digital-rights management execs, and digital intermediaries or digital service providers—into a damning report, concluding that "paid-for digital music still accounts for less than 0.01% of sales in any market."
Now imagine how different things might be if the music industry had actually come together, recognized the market behind the phenomenon, and sunk that $4 billion into a partnership with Napster in order to create a single, legal source for downloading digital music. The five BigCos would now be raking in the royalties, rather than bleeding their books dry. There would even be enough money to go around to pay the creators of the content, the artists. Broadcast radio would be taking notice of the patterns of downloads and would probably play a more diverse playlist, which means even more royalties for the labels. The Napster site would have the street cred upon which the product was originally built, and the Napster logo would rival Nike's in terms of ancillary sales of t-shirts, hats, and yes, even shoes.
If they had praised Napster, rather than coming to bury it, Michael Greene's speech last night would have been very different. Even if they just charged $1 per song, which I'm sure sounds absurd to them, Greene could have noted that the three college students downloading 6,000 songs in two days had brought in $6,000. Wherever he got his statistics, if he truly believes that 3.6 billion songs are illegally downloaded every month, then charging just one measly dollar for each song in the above scenario would bring in $3.6 billion every month. The five BigCos would have already made back their investment by now and then some. Plus, they wouldn't have spent as much on lawyers, which would leave their coffers that much fuller, and Net Gens would aspire to work for the labels, not hack them.
In a parallel universe somewhere, the labels are toasting their decision to work with Napster as the best thing they ever did.
9:59:01 PM Permanent link here
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UC Berkeley to Use Web Services to Deploy Unified Messaging System
"On the front end, users will be able to access either by dialing a single number or using an IP address from any device to receive their e-mails, voice mail, faxes, calendaring and scheduling information. The system will also will give callers the ability to get personal data out of back-end systems such as accessing medical or enrollment information, as well as class availability.
All of these systems exist today on the university campus, but as distinct silos of information. Web services will make it possible to connect the existing networks into a single provisioning platform for both IT and users, according to Terri Kouba, UC Berkeley systems developer.
"Web services allow us to take the voice mail message or e-mail message and package it up as a neutral object," said Korba. 'It's like using UPS; they don't care what is inside the box. That is what Web services will allow us to do - [move] a neutral object from the sender to the receiver....'
The mid-source model allows the enterprise data to remain inside the firewall, but to access the data a user goes through the MagnetPoint messaging server on the outside." [IDG InfoWorld]
I don't know what to say other than "wow." I'm still trying to wrap my mind around all of this, though.
9:18:04 PM Permanent link here
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Information Wants to Be Worthless by Bruce Sterling
"But one scenario was way too far-fetched and idealistic, even for the likes of us. What if it turned out that the Net was just plain too much for business to handle? That it was downright toxic to free enterprise?...
Lack of money, though, is not stopping the innovation. It never did. The Internet now reaches half the population of the USA. It is starting big seismic rumblings in China, Iran, and India, societies that lack their own AOL Time Warner and therefore have some dead-serious uses for cheap global network communication. Worldwide, people use the Net for e-mail. E-mail never had a real business model, but it was one feature everybody always wanted. The Net is becoming the planet's water cooler. It's all about the schmoozing and the gossip." [More Like This WebLog]
And of course, libraries have been here all along. Information is most definitely not worthless to us.
9:09:56 PM Permanent link here
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VoiceStream: New Messaging Service
"Inter-carrier service lets customers send a text message to any cell phone user, regardless of the receiver's carrier. Previously, customers could send and receive text messages only to and from customers of the same wireless carrier. Subscribers to carriers that don't offer inter-carrier service can respond to, but not initiate, a text message conversation with someone who subscribes to a different carrier.
Inter-operability is one of the keys that carriers say will help the United States, which still lags behind Europe in the popularity of text messaging. Last year, there were about 176 million e-mails sent between cell phones in the United States, according to Scott Ellison, program director of wireless and mobile communications for analyst firm IDC.
Next year, Ellison believes that number will increase to 1.5 billion wireless e-mails sent. By comparison, there are an estimated 30 billion messages exchanged every month in Europe. Carriers wouldn't confirm these estimates. [News.com]
Finally, a company starts looking long-term instead of short-term. I wondered who would realize that being first out of the pack would be a benefit. I got a call from Sprint PCS the other day. They're my current carrier, and they wanted to put me on a different plan that would be more cost-effective for me. Except that they couldn't find one that would be more cost-effective for me. And since arbitrarily switching would put me back in a contract with them, I declined. I want the ability to switch carriers when I want to switch without a penalty fee.
Inter-operable text-messaging and the forward thinking behind it are incentives that will make me consider switching carriers. Of course, I'm not doing anything until I see how "3G" services take off this summer, but VoiceStream definitely got an up arrow in my mental notes today, whereas I wasn't paying too much attention to them yesterday.
And BTW, did you note that 30 billion messages a month figure for Europe?! I know in a few short years, our kids will be riding home on the bus sending messages to their friends about their after-school plans.
5:18:23 PM Permanent link here
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Google Bombing: the Next Web Game
" 'Google bombing', on the other hand, is the art of bringing up a certain site in the number one slot on the search engine by weight of links alone, even if the linking words or phrases are totally unrelated.
The method works by taking advantage of Google's search algorithm.
In what has been labelled "a bizarre surreal bow to the power of perception on the web," by weblog Uber.nu, what you say about a page becomes just as important as the actual content of the page." [Library Stuff]
For those of you who were at the Tech Summit yesterday, this is the phenomenon I was talking about in regards to blogging. Start watching your search results carefully and you'll probably pick on some of these patterns.
2:33:33 PM Permanent link here
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There's an interesting debate over on the SIGIA-L mailing list about the proper way to write Net-related terms. "Web site" or "website"? "E-mail" or "email"? Etc., etc. I'm sure you've engaged in this debate yourself (or at least thought about it) at some point, but Dan Saffer's post caused me to actually re-think my position. Here's what he had to say:
"I had to write the editorial style guide for my last employer. I chose "web site": two words lower case. "Web" is an adjective describing "site." Arguably, "website" has become its own noun.
But my feeling is that neither "web" nor "internet" should be capitalized. Both describe a *medium* of communication, not a specific (proper) thing. You can't point to "The Internet" any more than you can point to Radio or "Television." The only reason they are capitalized is because they were new in the recent past. Now that they are commonplace, they should be treated as such."
I've been quite the stickler that Web is capitalized, Web site is two words with the W capitalized, and Internet has an upper case I. However, I think Dan has a good point, and while it will take my fingers a while to get the message and re-train themselves, I think my brain has settled on his versions. I do capitalize the abbreviation "TV" though, so would I also capitalize "Net" or no?
12:12:42 PM Permanent link here
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Everything Burns: "I have a new definition for "meme." A modern definition.
meme - n. Something which appears on every mailing list you're subscribed to in less than 24 hours."
Or in your news aggregator every hour for 24 hours.
12:03:17 PM Permanent link here
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Megan has asked if I know of any sites besides Audible that let you download audiobooks. I used to keep track of this, but haven't kept as close an eye on it lately. So I went through all of my bookmarks, and here is what I found:
11:27:23 AM Permanent link here
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CBS: Grammy Ratings "Fallin' "
"Alicia Keys, U2 and the Soggy Bottom Boys may have ruled the Grammys Wednesday night, but the whole affair was just plain soggy for CBS, as the 44th annual ceremony averaged 19 million viewers--down 29 percent from last year and the show's smallest audience since 1995."
Next thing you know, the television industry will be asking Congress to limit the hours the Internet is available in order to bring viewers back to TV. After all, the online world has been shown to take away their viewers, which puts the livelihood of the entire TV industry at risk. Gotta protect the product....
10:17:44 AM Permanent link here
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SSSCA Hearing
"arsoncc writes: "According to this article on CNET, a Senate Bill will likely force the issue of adding copy protection to hardware. They are giving the industry 12 to 18 months to come up with a voluntary solution to the "problem" of copies, and if not... Well, you just have to read the article. Insane." Wired also has a story. The IP list published two interesting documents: an account of the hearing by an attendee, and a letter from Intel published immediately after the hearing. Read the letter carefully - note that the disagreement between the tech industry and Hollywood is not over whether or not copy protection will be implemented into every electronic device, but only whether or not this should be written into law. If the SSSCA isn't passed, Intel (and others) get a lot of leverage over Hollywood. If it is, Intel's leverage disappears. But since both sides want to build copy protection into everything, they only differ over the process, we're in trouble either way." [Slashdot]
This is great because I was going to note all of the links contained in the Slashdot article, but now they've done the work for me. The only difference would be that I would capitalize the T in "trouble either way." Even disregarding the principles at stake here, there are two direct impacts on library budgets and services.
- Many libraries provide workstations where their patrons can search databases or use desktop software to create documents. Naturally, these folks want to save the results of their searches or the work they did on the documents. In the past, this has been done on floppy disks, but as the software grows and people do more, the files inevitably become too big for a single disk (think Powerpoint here). So many libraries have added hardware that allows patrons to save their work on to Zip disks or writable CDs. If the type of legislation discussed above is mandated, either by law or by hardware, we won't be able to offer this service anymore. Even if we tried to continue the service and you could prove that you created your own Word document and it's not copyrighted and it doesn't contain anything that is copyrighted, it may not be readable on a different PC.
- In addition to losing a valuable service that we provide for the millions of people that don't have a computer at home, we would probably have to upgrade all of our hardware, too, in order to include the new copyright protection schemes. Otherwise, we'd face criminal lawsuits for providing unauthorized access to copyrighted materials. It's hard enough keeping up with technology, but are the RIAA and MPAA going to help pay for all of this new hardware? Somehow I doubt it.
Now do you understand why this is an important issue for libraries that directly affects us?
10:09:41 AM Permanent link here
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Motorola's Sexy New Cell Phone Line
"Today, Motorola followed the lead of fashion mavericks and headed to Milan, Italy, to debut its 2002 line of cell phones that are stylish, sleek, and feature-rich head-turners. Besides being attractive, these mobiles are packed with cutting-edge extras. Most of the models support downloadable J2ME Java applications, GPRS, and advanced messaging technology, such as Enhanced Message Service (EMS), which you can use to attach music, animations, or even screensavers to messages. There's also multimedia messaging (MMS), which allows you to attach audio and video files to e-mail.
While the entire line is noteworthy, there are two models that are real eye-catchers: the A820 (a color phone with a built-in video camera and an MP3 player) and the A388 (a smart phone that's the size of a StarTAC). We have pictures of them all so that you can pick the mobile that fits your personal style. All these models will be available by year's end...." [CNET Wireless]
I'm more envious of the A820 - "plays video and audio clips; embedded MP3 player; integrated video camera; world phone; supports MMS; games; multicall feature that allows you to downloads apps and ring tones while talking on the phone; location-based technology onboard." They left out slices and dices and does the dishes. But why do all of the phones do slightly different things? Couldn't they have added PIM synching and a built-in speakerphone to the A820 pretty easily? Or does it have these features, too, and I just can't find a full description on the Motorola Web site?
9:32:10 AM Permanent link here
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The FirstGov Web site has been re-designed. It certainly does a better job of showing the breadth of information available. I do like that when you click on Online Services for Citizens, one of the options towards the top is Find a School, College or Library. Unfortunately, when I did a search for information about the newly-incorporated village in which I live, the search results were not terribly helpful, and some of the descriptions displayed HTML tags instead of content. The first hit looked promising, but it went to a 404 on the main State of Illinois site. They need better usability for their search results, too, because the descriptions don't show the part of the page that contains your keywords.
They also don't categorize the results. That's why we need State Library initiatives like the Illinois Government Information service. We're trying to get webmasters at all levels of government to add meta data to their pages. We're also automatically indexing and classifying their pages as best we can in order to allow better browsing and retrieval. We just changed software vendors for IGI so we're still busy tweaking everything, but hopefully it will improve the situation in Illinois.
9:23:48 AM Permanent link here
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The previous post from Kuro5hin asks:
"Finally, Mr. Greene what were record sales like before Napster? During Napster? After Napster was shut down? Doesn't it appear that MP3 trading actually helps to sell more music?"
Well, here's one answer from Slashdot.
"Not that it's really hurting money-wise. All this week's numbers mean is that the RIAA's total revenue has declined almost to 1998 levels. In 1998 they made $13.71 billion; after peaking in the mid-$14-billions, last year they made $13.74 billion.
This probably is due party to the crummy economy, partly to their failure to find any new sound to co-opt and mainstream recently, and partly to lack of big artists releasing megahits like they did in 1999. You know music officially sucks when the labels have to pay someone $28 million not to sing.
Oh, and partly due to the RIAA raising CD prices by $1.16, which is $0.25 over and above inflation (which has been higher than wage growth lately anyway). CDs are 94% of their revenue. Most industries, faced with declining sales, try lowering their prices. Not this one."
So record sales are as good as they were in 1998 despite the fact that three students downloaded 6,000 songs in three days. However does your industry survive on only $14 billion a year? We should definitely give up our rights to help you make even more money.
8:03:14 AM Permanent link here
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Greene Blasts Illegal Downloads
"In response to Mr. Greene, I'd first like to say that I don't know anyone who spends three days straight looking for music to download. Even if college students seem to have more free time than the rest of us, I'm sure that they don't have quite that much free time.
Secondly, most people would be more than happy to download music from legitimate sources, provided you give us full access to that music, and allow us to use it the same way we use CDs and other media, mainly that we can play it when we want, where we want, and dispose of it how ever we wish. When the recording industry wakes up from their Orwellian dream of complete control of every fart and utterance ever recorded, then they'll realize that CD ripping and MP3 trading is a non-issue." [kuro5hin.org]
As you could probably guess, I heartily agree with farmgeek. When Jack Valenti said that the technology industry needed to meet the MPAA at the table for "good faith" talks, I asked what the MPAA would be willing to put on the table as "good faith" gestures. I still haven't found an answer to that question. Apparently the tech industry is just supposed to give in to whatever the MPAA thinks is best for the MPAA's product.
So I pose the same question to Mr. Greene of the RIAA. If you want to stop three students from downloading 6,000 songs in three days (which is a "lie," "damn lie," or "statistic" - take your pick), how are you going to dialogue with them when you offer no alternative that protects the rights and ownership they currently have of existing physical products? Where is your "good faith" gesture? Or are these three kids (and the other six billion of us) just supposed to do whatever is necessary to protect your product?
If you're going to buy into the MPAA and RIAA arguments on this, I'd like to suggest that you initiate a lawsuit to close all of the world's bookstores. After all, they take readers away from libraries, and we need to protect libraries. I mean, how can I stop you from going out and buying a book if these stores are allowed to continue existing?
Now doesn't that sound ridiculous?....
7:55:37 AM Permanent link here
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© Copyright 2004 Jenny Levine.
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