Monday, June 19, 2006

Obama for president? Political Wire: "The Washington Post looks at Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) as a potential presidential candidate. 'The money he is bringing in for fellow Democrats is shaping up as an important influence on 2006. And the potential Obama is demonstrating as a political performer -- less than two years after his elevation from the Illinois state legislature -- is prompting some colleagues to urge him to turn his attention to 2008 and a race for the presidency. Obama has made plain he is at least listening.'" "2008 pres" 6:16:27 PM

Security Service? Richard Posner: "My new book Uncertain Shield: The U.S. Intelligence System in the Throes of Reform is about the reorganization of national-security intelligence that Congress decreed (unwisely in my opinion) in the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004. It is not a book about civil liberties. I have written such a book-Not a Suicide Pact: The Constitution in a Time of National Security-which will be published in September. The only discussion of civil liberties in Uncertain Shield comes in a chapter in which I discuss the case for creating a domestic intelligence agency, on the model of Britain's MI5 or the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, the latter of which figured prominently in the recent detection of the Toronto terrorism plot. A domestic intelligence agency or Security Service (the official name of MI5) is an agency separate from the national police (in the United States, the FBI) that has no arrest powers but uses surveillance and other intelligence methods to detect and foil terrorist and other threats to national security. The FBI has done badly as a counterterrorist organization for reasons I explain in my book, and the urgency of establishing a Security Service is underscored by the London transit bombings of July 2005 and now the luckily foiled Toronto plot" Thanks to Andrew Sullivan for the link. "2008 pres" 6:14:22 PM

Holtzman off ballot - for now Denver Business Journal: "Marc Holtzman was dealt another blow on Monday in his bid to become governor. "Denver District Judge Robert Hyatt on Monday ordered Holtzman's name removed from the Aug. 8 primary ballot, but stayed his order for 48 hours to give the candidate time to appeal. A Republican, Holtzman failed to collect enough valid signatures to land on the ballot, according to the Colorado secretary of state." "denver 2006" 6:10:27 PM

All packets aren't created equal Robert Cringely: "Net Neutrality -- what does it really mean and why do some telecommunication providers seem so opposed to it? The answers are neither as clear -- nor as evil -- as partisans on both sides of the aisle in Congress are suggesting. Those opposing Net Neutrality have in mind VoIP, and nothing but VoIP. Those in favor of Net Neutrality seem to think it means equal treatment under the Internet, which it doesn't really. The only thing we can be sure of, in fact, is that Congress doesn't get it and has a fair chance of making it worse. "The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed legislation allowing Internet Service Providers to do traffic shaping, giving some priority to certain types of content, which would presumably be either the ISPs' own content or that of ISP customers paying a premium for such access. The U.S. Senate is considering similar legislation, as well as other legislation designed to do exactly the opposite -- guarantee that all data packets receive equal service. The prevailing assumption, by the way, is that right now all packets ARE created equal, which of course they are not. "The Net Neutrality issue rests, in part, on the concept of the Internet as a 'best effort' network. Best effort, in the minds of the Internet Engineering Task Force, means something slightly different than we are being told in the general press. It means that all packets are treated equally poorly in that no particular efforts are made to ensure delivery. The Net, itself, performs no packet life-support function. This is in keeping with the concept of the Internet as a dumb network. So even in cases of transport protocols that DO attempt to perform reliable transport (protocols like TCP), those recovery measures are negotiated between the server and the client, not by the network that connects them, simple as that. "But all packets aren't created equal. TCP packets over longer distance connections, for example, are effectively at a disadvantage, because they are more likely to have data loss and require retransmissions, thus expanding their appetites for bandwidth. By the same token, packets of all types that originate on the ISP side of its primary Internet connection have the advantage of functioning in an environment with far greater bandwidth and far fewer hops. Perhaps the best example of this disparity: packets that pass through private peering arrangements, versus those traveling from one backbone provider to another through one of the many NAPs, with their relatively high packet loss. "This 'to NAP or not to NAP' issue has been with us for a long time. Smaller and poorer ISPs that can't attract peering deals with their larger brethren are stuck with communicating through the NAPs, which requires more time and bandwidth to transfer the same number of data packets successfully. This has long been a marketing point for bigger and richer ISPs. But beyond marketing, this disparity hasn't received much public notice. There are many ISPs that have both private peering and inter-NAP connections, yet whether they send a packet through the NAP or not hasn't been a huge public issue. Perhaps it should be. It has certainly been possible for ISPs to pretty easily put a hurt on packets, and they probably have been doing so, though most pundits assume that we are still living in the good old days. "One thing ISPs supposedly aren't allowed to do is to ban packets completely. If they tried that by, for example, restricting all Internet video or VoIP phone service to a particular provider, the courts would fill with lawyers filing Restraint of Trade lawsuits. So the ISPs take the air carrier approach of not denying passage to anyone, but wanting to give priority boarding to their most loyal frequent fliers. That's the heart of their argument. "But the other position ISPs like to take is that of the common carrier, which supposedly doesn't know the difference between one packet and the next, and is therefore not liable if some of those packets carry kiddie porn or terrorist communications. The ISPs, you see, want it both ways. "And they'll probably get it, because they have the lobbying clout. "But it is important to also keep in mind just how much damage there is to be done here. The biggest culprit in terms of sheer volume of traffic is undoubtedly Bit Torrent, but the failure of Net Neutrality isn't going to have much of an effect, if any, on Bit Torrent, because if your bootleg copy of The Sopranos arrives 10 minutes or even 10 hours later, is it going to matter all that much? No. "ISP high jinks will have little impact on video and audio downloads. "They won't have much effect, either, on search, because the dominant search vendor -- Google -- is working so hard to optimize backbone routes that inserting one slower hop at the ISP will probably STILL leave Google faster than everyone else. That's part of the reason that Google has been buying up all that fiber. "Where this Net Neutrality issue will hit home is for Voice over IP telephone service, which becomes pitiful if there is too much latency. That's what this is all about, folks: VoIP and nothing else. The telcos want to use it to keep out the Vonages, Skypes, and Packet8s, and the cable companies do, too. It is a $1 trillion global business, so we shouldn't be surprised that the ISPs will do anything to own it, but it isn't about movies or music or even AJAX apps -- at least, not yet." "2008 pres" 6:06:54 PM

Clinton for president? Here's an article about Bill Clinton and Hillary's potential run for president from USA Today. From the article, "Former President Bill Clinton said Saturday that, if he returns to the White House in 2008 because his wife becomes president, his role would be to 'do whatever she wants' because that's what a good citizen would do. Clinton said he didn't know if U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, a Democrat from New York seeking re-election this year, would run for president in two years as some have speculated, but he predicted a woman could win the most powerful office in the world. Asked at an Association of Alternative Newsweeklies convention what his role would be if his wife were elected, the former two-term president said, 'I'll do whatever she wants, and I have no idea what that is. I honestly don't know whether she's going to run.' Clinton said he believes his wife would make a good president and has been a better senator than he expected she would be, becoming knowledgeable about national security, commerce, political relationships, and other issues... "What concerns him more, he said, is a particular strain of the Republican Party that he said has gotten control in Washington. Reminding his audience that he grew up in the South as a native of Arkansas, Clinton said right-wing ideologues and 'ultra-conservative, white Southerners' have 'demonized' those who think differently from them. Their 'divisive' approach has made it more difficult to make substantive change, he said. 'My problem is I don't think this way of doing politics and making policy is good for America,' he said. 'We've got to find ways to get back to evidence-based politics.' Government has become more secretive while the level of discourse over such issues as gay marriage, immigration, and the war in Iraq has become more heated. He said global interdependence, the Internet, and the proliferation of non-governmental organizations means ordinary citizens feel the effects of and have more impact on developments worldwide. After the tsunami, for example, Americans donated $1.2 billion for relief efforts, much of that by Internet, he said. And estimates that oil supplies will run dry in 35 to 50 years underscore this interdependence and the need to find other ways besides war to meet the country's needs, he added." Thanks to The Moderate Voice for the link. 6:10:43 AM

We're havin' a heat wave The Denver area is likely to experience more dry and hot periods, according to the Rocky Mountain News. From the article, "Climate scientists say this month's shockingly early heat wave may provide a glimpse into Denver's future. The temperature at Denver International Airport reached or surpassed 90 degrees on 12 of the first 14 days in June, according to the National Weather Service. The hot spell included seven straight days of 90-or-higher temperatures, marking the earliest such streak since recordkeeping began in 1872. The mercury hit 102 last Wednesday, a record for the date and the earliest triple-digit temperature ever for Denver... "Western heat waves are likely to increase in severity, frequency and duration in the coming decades as the climate warms in response to the ongoing buildup of heat-trapping 'greenhouse' gases, said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. Future warming is likely to intensify the weather patterns responsible for heat waves in some parts of North America, including the West, according to a 2004 NCAR study published in the journal Science. Meehl was lead author of the study, which used computer models to simulate the future climate... "But no single extreme weather event - whether it's a heat wave or a hurricane - can be blamed on global warming, he said Friday. By the end of this century, heat waves along the Front Range could last an average of two days longer than they do now, and the number of heat waves per summer could double, according to the NCAR study. Some changes in Denver temperatures are already apparent, said University of Colorado climatologist Klaus Wolter. But it's unclear if human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, are to blame, he said. Springs and summers have warmed in Denver over the past decade, with the biggest temperature increases in March and July, Wolter said. Eight of the past 10 Denver springs (defined by climatologists as the months of March, April and May) and nine of the past 10 Julys were warmer than the long-term average at the former Stapleton International Airport in Denver, Wolter said. While the official National Weather Service temperatures for Denver are now measured at Denver International Airport, Wolter prefers to use Stapleton data because they contain an unbroken record extending back more than 50 years." "colorado water" 5:41:33 AM

Arkansas Valley Conduit Here's an update on the Arkansas Valley Water Conduit, from the Pueblo Chieftain. From the article, "The architect of a plan to keep some water that once flowed on fields in the area it formerly served will continue fighting for the plan, even though other communities could compete for the water. Carl McClure, an Olney Springs farmer who represents Crowley County on the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District board, is passionate about using Fryingpan-Arkansas Project water from dried-up farmlands for the proposed $300 million Arkansas Valley Conduit. The conduit would serve 50,000 people in 42 communities east of Pueblo. 'My argument is to take the water once used for agriculture and use it for the economic development of the lower valley,' McClure said. 'We need it more, especially because of water quality problems.' "McClure fears opening up the process could mean as much as half the water could go to Colorado Springs and other Fountain Valley cities. The controversy over the water has been brewing for more than a year, as the Southeastern District tries to decide how to apply 1979 allocation principles to a landscape that's shifted toward urbanization in the past three decades. The principles, which took the form of a water decree, clearly state that water from agricultural lands taken out of production should be shifted to 'non-irrigation' uses. But specific uses are not named. The amount of water affected, for now, is relatively small, about 3 percent of annual allocations, or an average of about 1,600 acre-feet. The figure is based on Fry-Ark allocations on 8,000 acres of land along the Colorado Canal Aurora bought in Crowley County in the 1980s... "But the principles accommodate the shift to cities. From the beginning, Fry-Ark water was seen as a primary supply for cities and supplementary for farms. In practice, farms used more than three-fourths of Fry-Ark water until the drought of 2002. Since then, Pueblo has claimed its full share, largely to make use of dedicated storage space in Lake Pueblo, after asking for none in prior years. The Fountain Valley Authority has made full use of its share, after only partial claims in the past. Cities and water districts east of Pueblo also never used their full allotment of Fry-Ark water, but have stepped up requests in recent years as they have been forced to find sources for well augmentation water. In fact, in the past two years only about half of the requests from municipal water suppliers east of Pueblo have been filled. McClure said it's crucial to supply water to the conduit. While an engineering study showed other water is available, the only firm annual supply is about 5,000 acre-feet of Fry-Ark water. Current demands are at least double that, and in 50 years they could double again." "colorado water" 5:23:54 AM

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