I would advise
everybody to fill up their vehicles with gas today because if Katrina
maintains its course and intensity gasoline could easily be $4/gallon
by the end of next week, probably higher because of the damage to the
nation's oil infrastructure.
This post is not
meant to downplay the likely catastrophic damage to life and property
in the region affected by Katrina, just to make everyone aware that the
effects of this Hurricane will likely be nationwide. I hope for anyone
on the board has friends or relatives in the NO, Biloxi, Mobile area
that those friends or relatives are hunkered down somewhere safe out of
the path of what looks like being a monster hurricane.
The LOOP is the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port in Port Fourchon, LA. It
handles 30% of the oil imported by the US, about 3-4 million barrels
per day and is the only facility that can handle VLCC's (Very Large
Crude Carriers: Supertankers). On its present course, Hurricane Katrina
will pass close to if not directly over Port Fourchon with the result
that a significant fraction of US oil supply will be cut off for some
indeterminate period of time. There is also a lot of refinery capacity
in the neighbourhood of Port Fourchon and New Orleans that will likely
be affected by the Hurricane.
If all the
refineries within the band of hurricane force winds goes offline, the
US loses 1.8 million barrels per day of refining capacity or about 10%.
In addition, 3 million barrels per day of imported crude and petroleum
products will be lost from the LOOP. Get ready for a huge spike in
energy prices and possible gasoline shortages.
VMA131Marine posted the map shown above says: Hurricane Katrina's projected path in relation to the oil supply and
refinery facilities in the region. Note in particular the LOOP and Port
Fourchon: Louisiana Petroleum Resources
If
all the refineries within the band of hurricane force winds goes
offline, the US loses 1.8 million barrels per day of refining capacity
or about 10%. In addition, 3 million barrels per day of imported crude
and petroleum products will be lost from the LOOP. Get ready for a huge
spike in energy prices and possible gasoline shortages.
It is still a problem that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is in Louisiana, if there are logistics
issues in the coming weeks? Also, the SPR is crude, so you would still
have fuel shortages if the refineries are out of commission. The SPR may well require an off-shore rig to get
to as it will probably be under water and without power for an extended
period. We don't know about the conditions of roads and bridges in the area;
we don't know about the condition of the facitities at the port of New
Orleans; we don't know enough to make a decisions at this time.
'I could have stayed at home and watched my roof blow off,'' said one
of the refugees, Harald Johnson, 43. ''Instead, I came down here and
watched the Superdome roof blow off. It's no big deal; getting wet is
not like dying.''
This is where about 8,000+ of New Orleans' poorest residents have taken
shelter, in the Superdome. The NYTimes reports now even that imposing structure is taking damage from Katrina:
"Strips
of metal were peeled away, creating two holes that were visible from
the floor of the huge arena. Water dripped in and people were moved
away from about five sections of seats directly below. Others
watched as sheets of metal flapped visibly and noisily. From the floor,
more than 19 stories below the dome, the openings appeared to be 6 feet
long."
Superdome and government emergency officials stressed that they did not
expect the huge roof to fail because of the relatively small breaches,
each about 15 to 20 feet long and 4 to 5 feet wide.
''We think the wind somehow got into the vents and got between the
roof's (waterproof) membrane and the aluminum ceiling tiles,'' said
Doug Thornton, regional manager of the company that manages the huge
arena.
The dome was filled with the sound of metal rattling, which Thornton said was produced by the metal ceiling tiles.
They're stuck sitting in the stadium seats
because the authorities don't want to risk the possibility that the
field may flood, which will start to get damned old in about 24 hours.
Aside from the tear in the huge roof, the 77,000-seat
steel-framework stadium, home of the NFL's New Orleans Saints, provided
few comforts but at least had bathrooms and food donated by charities.
The
wind that howled around the dome during the night was not heard in the
interior of the building where the refugees were kept.
''Everybody
slept last night. They didn't seem to have any problems,'' said Dr.
Kevin Stephens Sr., in charge of the medical shelter in the Superdome.
''They slept all over the place.''
Power failed in the Superdome
around 5 a.m. Monday, triggering groans from the crowd. Emergency
generators kicked in, but the backup power runs only reduced lighting,
not the air conditioning.
Residents lined up for blocks, clutching meager belongings and
crying children as National Guardsman searched them for guns, knives
and drugs.
Then Katrina's rain began, drenching hundreds of
people still outside, along with their bags of food and clothing.
Eventually, the searches were moved inside to the Superdome floor,
where some people wrapped themselves in blankets and tried to sleep.
It
was almost 10:30 p.m. before the last person was searched and allowed
in. Thornton estimated 8,000 to 9,000 were inside when the doors closed
for the 11 p.m. curfew.
More than 600 people with medical needs
were inside. ''And we sent another 400 to hospitals,'' said Gen. Ralph
Lupin, who commands the 550 National Guard troops in the Dome.
''We've
got sick babies, sick old people and everything in between,'' Stephens
said. ''We're seen strokes, chest pain, diabetes patients passing out,
seizures, people without medicine, people with the wrong medicine. It's
been busy.''
Thornton worried about how everyone would fare over the next few days.
''We're
expecting to be here for the long haul,'' he said. ''We can make things
very nice for 75,000 people for four hours. But we aren't set up to
really accommodate 8,000 for four days.'
God help these folks, and all the rest down there.
This is where about 8,000+ of New Orleans' poorest residents have taken
shelter, in the Superdome. The NYTimes reports now even that imposing structure is taking 
