Updated: 01/07/2003; 7:27:46 AM.
Robert Paterson's Radio Weblog
What is really going on beneath the surface? What is the nature of the bifurcation that is unfolding? That's what interests me.
        

Thursday, June 19, 2003

I had a great morning having an implant inserted into my jaw and a wisdom tooth extracted at the same time. I had bananas and custard for dinner. I would not wish this on my worst enemy - it's also very expensive! Thank God for my mother whose birthday gift this is


9:58:17 PM    comment []

In 1995 I wrote series of articles for a friend who edited an HR magazine.  Her readers must have thought me mad - it was 1995 remember and the internet was just beginning to be felt.  The last article was called Going Home. Here is the conclusion - It seems more and more likely that this could happen

A Vision of our Future (as of 1995)

The new institutions are emerging from the fire of the fiscal crisis.

Cottage industry based on working at home will race ahead facilitated by the Internet and by the new courier systems. Partnerships rather than traditional corporations will form enabling networks of cottage industries to compete globally. As cottage industry grows, the disconnection between family life and work is healed. As cottage industry grows, services come back to where we live and community begins to poke its tender shoots above the ground. As cottage industry grows, credentials lose their value. What counts is capability. Our children can learn again directly from those that have the skills. They themselves will have access to meaningful work. The extended adolescence of the industrial age will begin to contract as will  the associated angst of youth with no purpose such as teen pregnancies and juvenile crime. Our current educational establishment will be severely challenged.

Existing governments will starve as E Money hides transactions and incomes drop. They will be forced to look at alternatives for revenue. I believe that they may be compelled to consider taxing the use of carbon which would set in motion a process of putting people back to work and reducing pollution.

I also believe that there is no shortage of economic resources. They are simply in the wrong place. The costs of our bureaucracies are not in the people but in the control systems and in their structures and processes. As the institutions of the old crumble these resources will be released back into the communities. As resources come back from the centre to the community, the demand to control community resources at the level of community will increase creating new locally based governance institutions. These new community based bodies will find the old decision making process not useful and will experiment with dialogue as an alternative. The old centralized governance institutions will become increasingly irrelevant.

As the communities become more connected, their health will improve and the social fabric will improve. In particular the elders of our communities will re-find their role in society as the holders of wisdom. This process of reconnection will reduce further the demands on our current service-delivery models of government. It will challenge the existing institutions of medicine and their supporting institutions such as the drug companies and retirement homes.  As health care is half the budget of most Canadian provinces even more resources will be released to the communities. The costs of government and business will drop dramatically as a critical mass of communities develops. The need for taxation will drop. All our costs will drop. Our need for income will drop and we will be able to get off the treadmill.

As community becomes more important, so the quality of the environment will become more important. The city will become a less attractive magnet. The early movers of the community movement will seek places of natural beauty to relocate. Supported by the cyber network and by the courier systems, it will be possible to be in the world and in the country at the same time. The cities will begin to hull out even more than today. Artistic life will spring up in the smaller communities and will be more participative and useful. City life seems efficient, but it paradoxically consumes more resources than it produces. For cities over a certain size are linear systems that consume resources and produce unusable waste. They depend on intensive agriculture which drives the degradation of our environment and they depend on a massive physical transportation infrastructure which starves communities and feeds further urbanization.

The early movers in the community movement will begin at the periphery where the force of the old institutions is weakest. In Canada, I think that this will be in the Maritimes. The centre will do its best to hold on at every stage of this process. The centre will fight for survival. Much of the transition will be very painful. There is massive vested interest that will fight every step of the process. The vested interest will appear like Honnecker's border guards to have all the power. But the power behind the new paradigm is unstoppable. The Pope could threaten Gallileo with the stake but the idea was out and could not be stopped.

A more dispersed society will emerge. A dispersed society does not need intensive industrial agriculture. A community will find more and more time coming back to it as the need for income, to commute, to meet schedules and to have meetings about meetings goes away. We will have the time and the desire to grow much of our food again. The process of undoing 5 millennia of intensive agriculture will begin and we will have the opportunity of redeeming our abuse of our land.

A community needs to have a broader measurement system than one that focuses solely on money. Measures like GDP will appear increasingly irrelevant. We will seek broader more inclusive measures of wealth that will reconnect the economic with the social and the environment. Life in the new world will measure success differently. We will be measured by the contribution that we make to our community.

We will start to get back time. As the buzzing in our heads from all our business subsides, our spiritual life will re-emerge like a butterfly after a pupation of 5,000 years. We will seek ritual again. We will once again come home to our place as part of nature. We will be healed.

We will be home.

I do not wish to underestimate the struggle and the pain of making the transition. Many of us will see the foundation of our lives removed. But our choice is simple - we either go back to the future or we all perish.

I close with a quote from one of my favourite books. The Sun and the Serpent[18]. It describes a journey through the holy places of Old Europe in Arthur's country in the south west of England. The quote is from the end of the book where the authors describe the great ritual of renewal at Avebury.  

The Golden Dawn

There will come a time when humanity will choose to go against nature, to exploit her bounteous gifts, causing a sickness across the planet. People will forget the ecstasies of communion, and life will become drab and colourless.

In these coming dark ages, though, a deep sense of loss will cause the beginnings of a Great Return. They will look at the landscape and the old temples, built to withstand the cataclysms of millennia and understand once again the sacred laws of Existence.

When this day comes, humanity will have come of age. It will consciously acknowledge its role in the creative impulse that comes from the Sun, fertilizes the Earth, and calls forth the flame in the hearts of men and women to worship Life and the miraculous forces behind Creation.

 


9:45:25 PM    comment []

What would be the journey from a machine world to a growth world? In government it might look like this.

What would it be like to make the shift from working as a self contained indivifial to being part of a real team?

How would the focus of managerial discussion change?

 


9:25:19 PM    comment []

Dave Snowden. Matt Mower has posted some great notes from a talk by KM guru Dave Snowden: Cynicism and Serendipity.

...For 20-30 years we've operated a model of the human brain closer to cybernetics than neuroscience.  The assumption is that thought is a logical, rational, linear process.  This is wrong.  So is Myers-Briggs and all these other attempts to put people into boxes.  It is reminiscent of Brave New World...

The human brain is adaptive.  The way we see the world changes according to context.  Disruption changes brain patterns and the key thing in human intelligence is patterns.  We match stimulus against patterns to know how to act.   The brain creates patterns.  Hence KM has a problem: We cannot codify patterns for use in text books...

3rd generation approach to KM (Post-SETI - Nonaka) separate knowledge into:

  • context
  • narrative
  • content management...

Trust is not a property.  It's an emergent property.  You can't make people trust each other.   You can't train people to have qualities.  It doesn't work...

Many other gems in this long post, good frameworks, worth a full read.

[Ross Mayfield: Social Networks]

Definitely a landmark piece of work


9:12:34 PM    comment []

No institution will be able to continue along the "business as usual" model. Few institutions are more vulnerable than education to the effects of the emerging disruptive technology of social software.

When offered a participative pedagogy, freedom in terms of time to attend and much lower costs the early adapters will jump at the better deal. This will happen at first in Universities and Community colleges but will drift down to high school. It will be the small universities that will take up the challenge. The large will have so much vested interest in the old that it will be too late. The small regional player that the big guys all laughed at will have broken out and like Southwest will redefine the field.

RSS in Education.

RSS - The Next Killer App for Education

"Imagine having the news that interests you automatically delivered to your desktop, or being alerted to updates on your favorite Web sites without visiting them first. Picture yourself as a news provider to specific people who share your interests or just appreciate your commentary. Most commonly used to support the publication of weblogs and Internet news sites, RSS is an important development that promises to have a substantial impact on the world of education" [Tools, via elearnspace blog]

Some good examples for educators looking for ways to incorporate RSS into their web sites.

[The Shifted Librarian] [Blogging Alone]
8:20:58 AM    comment []

Model for Collaborative Spaces at the Workplace.

This is a brilliant attempt by Stuart Henshall at creating a really neat model for how collaborative spaces can really work to harness and augment collective intelligence. There's loads of good stuff being written on this topic - on collective intelligence, collaborative spaces, corporate blogging and on better knowledge management systems.  Yet this is the first piece i've seen that makes me feel it is a model that is really 'workable', in a corporate set-up, and not just among bloggers and KM specialists.

And the first to focus not just on the tools or on their benefits - but on both. 

A must-read for anyone interested in this area.

Collaborative Spaces - Transforming Innovation Capital.

How might the growing interest in linking digital identity, blogging wiki's, RSS feeds etc evolve?  How might the emergent functionalities in these tools benefit our evolution and daily experiences. How will they combine and spiral to augment our collective intelligence? How will they reframe the KM knowledge innovation paradigm? For most companies it's happening more rapidly than they think. 

There's a saying "the future is here  - it is just unevenly distributed" (William Gibson). This couldn't be more true when we start to apply it to emerging lightweight knowledge innovation tools and combine it with what we know about mobility, decentralization, hyperconnectivity, online identity etc. 

Yet using the metaphor "standing in the future" we almost inevitably find ourselves reframing the space we compete in today. 

I facilitated the chart below about three weeks ago before going somewhat silent (at least on my blog) when exploring early ideas for transforming a "systems integration business" into an innovation engine.  As the tools paradigm developed we kept spiraling back to the benefits. Each iteration breaking a new frontier, each new technology providing new functionality.   

A picture named CI stuart.jpg

It's a WIP (work-in-progress) and making the point that all these technologies are already available they are not just effectively connected yet.  For the most part it will be bloggers reading this.  Some have the curiosity to ask:  Is corporate blogging just noise or part of a greater shift.  What about wiki's and the broader aspects of augmented social networks? Etc. 

[Unbound Spiral]

Two more related posts today from Stuart - one that has a great list of links with stories and examples on how Blogging is emerging in Business, and the second a more philosophical passionate take on how Augmented Social Networks can impact innovation and community at large.  

Way to go Stuart.  I look forward to reading more of his thoughts.

[Conversations with Dina]
8:06:28 AM    comment []

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