The most evil man in America:

 

4:50:27 PM    

The Other Incumbent Rule
Why Kerry must win convincingly Tuesday.
By Chris Suellentrop
Posted Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 1:18 AM PT

LA CROSSE, Wis.—The past six years have not been kind to political rules of thumb. During the primary season, a candidate who leads in both the polls and in fund raising on Jan. 1 is supposed to be guaranteed the nomination. Ask Howard Dean about that one. In the general election, the national popular vote is supposed to coincide with the vote in the Electoral College. Ask Al Gore how that went. And during midterm congressional elections, the president's party is supposed to lose seats in the House. About that one, ask Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

The next political axiom to be tested will be polling's "incumbent rule," which dictates that undecided voters break overwhelmingly for the challenger on Election Day. (Another way to put it is that an incumbent president's polling number typically equals or exceeds the percentage share of the vote he'll receive.) Because most final state polls show President Bush polling below 50 percent in nearly every swing state, history is on John Kerry's side Tuesday. But recent elections have shown that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What's more, if the election turns out to be close, there's another way incumbency could be the determining factor in the election, as Randy Broz, a Democratic strategist and fund-raiser for House candidates, pointed out to me last week. This rule, call it the "other incumbent rule," favors President Bush. In the unlikely scenario of "another Florida"—litigation or just a long recount in a decisive state—the president, by virtue of his incumbency, will hold a decisive public-relations advantage. During the 2000 recount, Republicans cried that Al Gore was trying to "steal the election" from Bush based on nothing more than the fact that the TV networks had declared Bush the winner on Election Night. Had Bush been a sitting president, the outcry would have been more persuasive. Trying to oust a wartime incumbent through litigation would be nearly impossible.

Kerry will need to win clearly and convincingly at the ballot box in order to unseat Bush, and for what it's worth, most reporters seem to think that he's going to do it. The Kerry campaign staff is confident, and it appears to be genuine, rather than bluster. "I never told anyone in 2000 that Al Gore was going to win by 6 points," Bob Shrum—taking a shot at Karl Rove's record in election forecasting—told reporters on the campaign plane. For the past week or two, the campaign has spoken confidently of winning "big states"—presumably Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—that would assure Kerry the presidency.

By Monday evening, reporters from news organizations that have colleagues traveling with Bush started saying that the Bush folks have clammed up, or that they seem unusually tight. Kerry's final events had a giddy air. The traveling press credentials for the night's last "major rally" in Cleveland featured a head shot of longtime Kerry spokesman David Wade, who gladly autographed a few. To the New York Daily News reporter, he wrote, "At least you're not the Post." And to the New York Post, he tweaked the paper's veep "scoop" by writing, "Go Kerry-Gephardt!" I heard rumors of, but did not witness, a dancing Mike McCurry. I even read it as a sign of confidence that traveling press secretary Allison Dobson was eager to join a proposed Electoral College betting pool. Teresa Heinz Kerry's slightly unusual political talk in Cleveland—about an America that is "young" and "imperfect" but "growing," and how Kerry knows America's "thorny parts" as well its idealism—came across as charming rather than ludicrous.

In Toledo, at a midnight rally that Kerry dubbed "the first stop of Election Day," Gen. Tony McPeak criticized the Bush administration for wrapping itself in the flag to hide its "incompetence." "You wanna shoot 'em, you gotta put a hole in the flag," McPeak said. "We got a guy in John Kerry who stands in front the flag. He says, you gonna hurt that flag, you're gonna have to run through me."

When Kerry arrived here in La Crosse for a photo op at 1:25 a.m. Central time, a man in the crowd held aloft a scrawled sign reading, "Tomorrow Is Here, President Kerry." Kerry leapt into the crowd of a couple hundred people, clutching and grabbing and high-fiving hands. He seemed to realize that this was it, his last full day as a presidential campaigner. Just a couple weeks ago in Des Moines during a joint appearance with John Edwards, Kerry had walked down a catwalk next to his running mate, who was reaching down into the crowd enthusiastically with both hands. Kerry, by comparison, touched a voter's hand only occasionally, and only at the end of the walk did he extend both arms to clasp hands with anyone. This time, Kerry eagerly embraced the throng for 20 minutes, perhaps not ready for this day to end.

Predictions are dangerous, but I'll make one: Tuesday night, the incumbent rule holds, and on Jan. 20, we'll have a new incumbent.

Chris Suellentrop is Slate's deputy Washington bureau chief. You can e-mail him at suellentrop@slate.com .

4:24:19 PM    

Remember when FDR said "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."?

 

Contrast that to Bush's message all year long - "Be afraid, be very afraid - but don't let it affect your spending habits!!"

what a jerk!

With any luck, he'll be a lame duck by this time tomorrow....

 

3:01:11 PM    

RES ALERT October 29, 2004 ----- Original Message ----- From: RES ALERT To: ccline@dnai.com Sent: Friday, October 29, 2004 8:05 PM Subject: FEAR AND LOATHING IN THE USA *** October 29, 2004 ***

October 29, 2004

Election Day Reminder Halloween might be scary, but it pales in comparison to next Tuesday, when we'll all be waiting with bated breath for the outcome of what many have called the most important election in a generation. Let's just hope we know the results on Wednesday morning, and not many weeks and legal battles later. We screened a program in RESFEST this year called Bushwhacked!, so we're obviously not all that concerned about being accused of partisanship, but we'll let the artists do the Bush-bashing. We just hope and pray you'll make your way to the polls next Tuesday -- unless you're planning to vote for Bush.

.RES REPORTS: Bushwhacked!, Music and Media at MoMA, Oulu 2004 .4U2C: A Post-Election Confection .UPCOMING EVENTS: Big Mini-DV Festival, BUST Magazine Film Festival .DEADLINES: IF Digital Arts, Hilo, HD Storytelling Residency, Oberhausen, Images .RES MAGAZINE: Lyrical and Inimitable .ADVERTISING OPPORTUNITIES .SUBSCRIBE/UNSUBSCRIBE .CONTACT US

BUSHWHACKED!

As part of this year's RESFEST, we've offered our own contribution to the political discourse of this complicated election year: a collection of viral political shorts we called "Bushwhacked!" which seek to expose the true character and policies of the man Americans have been forced to endure as their president for the past four years. With election day perilously close (and the polls ominously tight), we've taken advantage of the fact that much of the work is available online to showcase some of the best. read more ?

BOOM! On February 15, 2003, more than ten million people demonstrated around the world to protest the impending US-led Iraq war, including countless guerilla filmmakers, who captured people's feelings from London to LA, Johannesburg to Tel Aviv. Celebrated documentarian Michael Moore wove their footage into a rousing statement of civil engagement, with an additional animated sequence by Harold Moss depicting the war's key players sitting astride plummeting missiles, Strangelove style. Boom is a video for the alt-metal combo System of a Down. Watch in Real. www.systemofadownonline.com/vid/boom.htm

SLAM BUSH In a July speech to the National Urban League, President Bush questioned the African-American community's historic commitment to the Democratic Party. Slam Bush offers the hip-hop nation's eloquent response in the context of a mock debate. The spot is the centerpiece of the Slam Bush National Rhyme Contest, a challenge to rappers and slam poets nationwide to "debate" the president online and at local Slam Bush contests. Watch in high speed or low speed Quicktime or high speed or low speed Windows Media. www.slambush.net

TERROR, IRAQ, WEAPONS One of the most important rules of thumb in a making a persuasive speech is "stay on message." Here, Mike Nourse dissects George W. Bush's message, chronologically cataloging the president's use of three favorite words in a 30-minute speech he gave in Cincinnati on October 7, 2002. Watch in high speed or low speed Real. www.konscious.com/kNcontent.html?/lostterror.html

WHAT BARRY SAYS Just because the US government has established a near stranglehold on the mainstream press doesn't mean it's been successful in manufacturing consent. What Barry Says is a fiercely polemical essay opposing American foreign policy and the neoconservative Project for the New American Century, accompanied by ominous, propagandistic motion graphics. London designer and animator Simon Robson conceived the project in response to his peers' apathy about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Watch in Quicktime. www.knife-party.net

see more films ?

MUSIC AND MEDIA AT MOMA

Brian Eno By Sue Apfelbaum For three consecutive Thursdays, from September 23 through October 7, the Museum of Modern Art's Film and Video Program hosted a series of unique discussions at the CUNY Graduate Center, a temporary venue until the museum's grand reopening later this month. With a mission to explore music's influence on moving image work, MoMA paired groundbreaking artists Laurie Anderson, Michel Gondry and Brian Eno with interviewer/conversationalists who discussed the artists' significant works and aural inspirations. read article ?

OULU 2004: FINNS CELEBRATE MUSIC VIDEOS AND AIR GUITARS

Air Guitar Co-Champ Miri Park

by Sandy Hunter The best in Finnish music videos and the world's top air guitarists were honored in Northern Finland the last week of August during the ever-eclectic Oulu Music Video Festival and Air Guitar World Championship.Now in its 11th year, the Oulu Festival combined screenings, workshops (for both burgeoning filmmakers and air guitar enthusiasts) with parties and of course, awards. read article ?

A POST-ELECTION CONFECTION

Whether you're celebrating or drowning your sorrows in the aftermath of the election, those in LA can treat their political hangovers by indulging in a post-collection confection convention, courtesy of Gum, former RES art director Colin Metcalf's tasty new publication, the second issue of which just came out. The event, taking place at Cinespace on Hollywood Boulevard, will include a live from the fantastic hip hop provocateur Jean Grae, live art by Kinsey, Florencio Zavala, Rich Coleman and Travis Millard and projection courtesy of MK12. Delicious pin-up punks in the form of Suicide Girls will be on hand to chaperone revelers. Get their early to receive a free copy of Gum 2 and a free custom silk-screened Puma T-shirt, while supplies last. Thursday, November 4, 9 pm Cinespace: Hollywood, CA 6356 Hollywood Blvd, Los Angeles www.gumweb.com

THIRD ANNUAL BIG MINI-DV FESTIVAL

November 5-6 Long Island University Brooklyn Campus 1 University Plaza, Brooklyn, New York The Media Arts Department of the Brooklyn Campus of Long Island University presents the Third Annual International Big Mini-DV Film Festival on Friday, November 5 (from 5-10 pm) and Saturday, November 6 (from 11 am - 10 pm). The weekend will include screenings, panel discussions with noteworthy filmmakers and an awards ceremony for 2004 festival award winners. More info: www.liu.edu/mediamap.

FIRST EVER BUST MAGAZINE FILM FESTIVAL

November 4-7 Two Boots Pioneer Theater 155 East 3rd Street at Avenue A New York, NY BUST Magazine will be showcasing the work of some of the best and brightest "reel girls" around this November 4-7. The festival will include features, documentaries, shorts, and animations that tell the truth about women's lives. Highlights Sarah Jacobson's coming-of-age tale Mary Jane's Not a Virgin Anymore and Jill Morley's documentary strip club expose, Stripped. Single tickets are $9 and a four-day $36 festival pass gets you in to all screenings as well as an invitation to the private opening night party with filmmakers, plus a one-year subscription to the mag and a special gift bag.

INDEPENDENT FESTIVAL OF DIGITAL ARTS CALL FOR ENTRIES

IF (Independent Festival) of Digital Arts seeks seeking submissions of digital art for second annual festival to be held next May in Berkeley, California. The festival is looking for digital video work, 2D artwork, sound projects, multimedia installations, performance and presentations. Deadlines are November 1, 2004 for single channel video and 2D digital imagery and November 30 for all other work. www.ifdigitalarts.org. Questions: info@ifdigitalarts.org.

HILO FILM FESTIVAL 2005 CALL FOR ENTRIES

If you've got a high-concept/low-budget film the the world needs to see, Hilo wants to see it. The festival will screen in San Francisco in spring 2005 before touring the country. Films accepted into the festival will also be considered for the 2005 Hilo DVD. All lengths, genres and formats are accepted. Early entry deadline is January 1, 2005, late deadline is January 15. Questions: info@hilofilmfestival.com or (415) 558-7721

HIGH DEFINITION STORYTELLING RESIDENCY AT SF ART INSTITUTE

The San Francisco Art Institute (SFAI), the Bay Area Video Coalition (BAVC) and Rearden Studios are seeking submissions from qualified applicants for the High Definition Storytelling Artist-in-Residency at the SFAI Ars Nova XXI High Definition Research Laboratory. The chosen artist will create an 8-10 minute time-based narrative, documentary or experimental form to be screened at SFAI in October 2005. In addition, the artist in residence will teach a two-week seminar at SFAI and a four-day Masters Workshop at BAVC. Deadline for entries is January 15, 2005. www.bavc.org/media/grants/index.htm

FESTIVAL OBERHAUSEN CALL FOR ENTRIES

In its first year after turning 50, the venerable Oberhausen Festival, scheduled for May 5-10, 2005, is once again looking for short productions full of energy and daring to present in its competitions. Works of all genres and most formats on film or video can be submitted for the International, German, Children's and Youth Film Competitions and the MuVi Award. A total of 37,500 euros will be awarded to the lucky winners. For the first time, submissions can be uploaded through a joint submission platform developed by several different European film festivals. Deadline for entries is January 15, 2005. To submit: www.reelport.com

IMAGES FESTIVAL CALL FOR ENTRIES

Toronto's annual celebration of new and exciting media art rolls into town for its 18th go-round next April 7-16, showcasing more than 200 film, video, performance, installation and new media works from Canada and around the world. The Images Festival is seeking entries for next year's event in the fields of film and video. The film and video deadline is November 5 (the drop-dead date is actually November 19, but higher entry fees apply). For guidelines and entry forms, visit the Images Festival website. http: //www.imagesfestival.com/corp_site/main.html

LYRICAL AND INIMITABLE: JONATHAN GLAZER

You've probably seen the trailers for Jonathan Glazer's upcoming sophomore feature, the psychological triller Birth, starring Nicole Kidman. In the fall issue of RES, you can read about the exceptional work of the British director, whose previous work includes award- winning commercials and music videos as well as his acclaimed debut feature, Sexy Beast, starring Ben Kingsley. Also included in the issue: a profile of British animation collective Shynola, the current state of branded entertainment, viral political filmmaking and many of the creators included in this year's RESFEST, including Daniel Askill, Cheryl Dunn, Suk & Koch, Monkmus and much more.

Subscribe now to the one and only publication dedicated to innovative media culture. Special RES subscription offer: Save 30% off the cover price! Six issues of RES for $24.95 or 12 issues for just $44.95. Plus -- only subscribers get the magazine DVD, with 90 minutes of music videos, shorts films, interviews and more.

To subscribe to RES, call toll-free in the US and Canada at 1-888- READRES (International readers, please call 1-856-931-6681). E-mail at subinfo@res.com or subscribe online at www.res.com/subscribe.

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RES, RES Magazine, RESFEST, RESDVD, RES LAB and RES ALERT are trade and service marks of RES Media Group, Inc. Copyright ? RES Media Group, Inc. 1997-2004. All Rights Reserved.
11:23:57 AM    

----- Original Message ----- From: "Vote NO Prop64" To: Sent: Saturday, October 30, 2004 3:49 AM Subject: Vote NO on Prop.64 - the Polluters' Initiative

> Dear Concerned Citizens of California: > > I am writing to warn you about Proposition 64, a November ballot > initiative backed by tobacco and oil companies, as well as auto dealers, > HMOs and the insurance industry that is designed to take away the > right of citizens to sue corporations for causing harm to the > environment, workplace, consumers, and society. That is why the > Attorney General and 82 non-profit organizations, including the Sierra > Club, AARP, and American Lung Association are adamantly > against Prop. 64. > > California's Unfair Business Competition Law (UBCL) is the crown > jewel of the public's health and safety protections because it rests upon > a simple, fundamental principle. Markets operate best when > companies compete rather than cheat. Deception, fraud and other > unfair practices can be stopped before causing injury to ensure that > only honest companies profit. Prop. 64 would change that, by > taking away the UBCL's power of preventing harm to the public. > Prop. 64 would amend the UBCL so that environmental organizations, > public health groups, and other consumer activists would not be able to > sue corporations in the public interest when those corporations engage > in unsavory and harmful practices, unless someone has already been > harmed or killed. > > Prop. 64 poses the greatest threat to stopping corporate cheats > Californians have ever confronted. For example, thousands of > contaminated sites that are sources of our future drinking water have > been cleaned up thanks to the UBCL. But Prop. 64 would give > polluters carte-blanche to continue their destruction of our air and > water, because we would have to show the oil companies how the > water made us sick before they have to clean up their mess. Of > course, it would be too late by then. Similarly, armed with the UBCL, > citizen enforcers stopped Big Tobacco from marketing cigarettes to > minors. > > The Prop. 64 ads are very deceptive, charging that law firms wreak > havoc on small businesses under the UBCL. However, the "lawsuits" > to which they refer were NOT correctly or legally brought under the > UBCL. None of these wrongful suits are upheld in a court of law. The > few lawyers who abused the UBCL had their cases thrown out and > were properly disbarred. What's more, the Attorney General was able > to rightfully sue these individuals as racketeers under the very same law > they abused, the UBCL. Prop. 64 would limit the ability of non-profit > groups to stop such unfair business practices against consumers and > small businesses. > > Prop. 64 supporters (tobacco companies, oil companies, etc.) spent > about $20 million to get this initiative passed, to protect themselves > from consumers. As environmentalists and consumers, we lack the > finances of the backers of Prop. 64, but we are empowered by our > vote and the vote of our friends and loved ones. Exercise your right > and show the polluters that we don't need to show them a dead body in > order to get them to clean up their act. For more info, watch the clever > flash animation at: www.noonprop64.com. > We need every vote we can get to stop the polluters and cheaters. Get > the message out to your friends and family to VOTE NO ON > PROP.64! >
11:23:55 AM