Will BRAC make traffic even worse for us?

BRAC PROPOSAL WOULD GRIDLOCK THE FORT BELVOIR AREA

DRAFT Study Shows Massive Delays (Link to report at bottom)

BRAC TO VOTE TODAY ON ARLINGTON TO FORT BELVOIR MOVES

A draft study released on the eve of the vote by the Base Realignment and Closure Commission regarding the proposed shift of tens of thousands of jobs from Arlington, Alexandria and DC, shows that the arterial roads and highways in the Fort Belvoir area will be overwhelmed by traffic in both 2010 and 2020.  

“It will take 6 hours for peak afternoon traffic to get through the Fairfax County Parkway at I-95 in 2010,” said Stewart Schwartz, Executive Director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth.  “It will take an estimated 5 hours to clear peak afternoon traffic from the Fort Belvoir area as a whole, even with already planned road expansion.”

According to Norm Marshall, study author for Smart Mobility, INC., “the COG/TPB modeling suggests that at least 8 additional lanes exiting the Fort Belvoir area during the afternoon peak period would be needed (16 lanes additional lanes counting both directions) to satisfy the capacity needs.  And this calculation only deals with the single roadway link – it does not mean that the commuters would have sufficient roadway capacity for the rest of their trip home.”

FAILURE TO MEET BRAC GOALS

“We believe that the intense traffic delays faced by DOD employees and contractors in the Fort Belvoir area, combined with resulting turnover losses of established workers, should cause the proposed moves to Fort Belvoir to fail to meet BRAC standards for “efficiency” and “effectiveness” cited by DOD in the Washington Post on August 24^th,” said Schwartz.  “These include impact on “operational readiness,” “manpower implications,” and “ability of the infrastructure” to support these forces.”

STUDY (DRAFT) BACKGROUND

Schwartz emphasized that “this is a DRAFT study that we are releasing because of the impending BRAC vote (reportedly on Thursday, August 25th).  It took us time to raise the money and then to obtain the data from the Council of Governments.  The report will require additional review before it is final.”  The Coalition for Smarter Growth hired its consultant, Norm Marshall of Smart Mobility, Inc, after learning that Virginia, the Council of Governments, and local jurisdictions had not studied the direct traffic impact around Fort Belvoir of the proposed DOD move.  The Coalition was not able to complete an analysis of the traffic impact of shifts from core jurisdictions to other suburban sites like Fort Meade.

TRAFFIC VOLUME AND COSTS

Using the traffic modeling data from a Council of Governments’ broader regional study, Smart Mobility determined that 17,935 more cars will leave the Fort Belvoir area between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. on weekdays in 2010 than will be able to, given the limited roadway capacity.  In 2020, even after widening Route 1 north, Route 1 south, Telegraph Rd., and Pohick Rd, the model calculates that there will be 14,541 more vehicles leaving the Fort Belvoir area between 4 p.m. and p.m. than the roads can handle.

“Even if it were feasible to provide sufficient roadway capacity, the cost could be hundreds of millions of dollars, and possibly more, at a time when area jurisdictions are already struggling to fix existing transportation problems.” said Schwartz.  “We don’t have the numbers, and unfortunately none of the decision-makers have this critical information either.  Furthermore, the required improvements may extend well beyond the immediate Fort Belvoir area.”

RAIL TRANSIT LIKELY WILL NOT WORK

Some officials have spoken of extending rail transit to the Fort Belvoir area, but Smart Mobility concluded that:  “Extending mass transit to the Fort Belvoir area would be very expensive.  No amount of capital investments in transit will be able to recreate the quality of transit service in Fort Belvoir that currently exists in Arlington.  Arlington has multiple Metro stops close to the urban core that are already developed densely with mixed land use (office, commercial and housing).  In contrast, Fort Belvoir will at best have fewer Metro stops, at a farther distance from the core, with less dense land use, and less of a land mix.[1][1] The large setbacks required by BRAC will make the new development poorly designed for walking and transit.”

According to the study, the areas targeted for job reduction have a 32.5% share of commuting by transit, carpool, walking and bicycling.  The corresponding share for Fort Belvoir and the other job gain areas is 17.7%, or only slightly more than half as much.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION TO BRAC

Smart Mobility further noted that, “the COG/TPB analysis likely underestimates the full effects of the BRAC relocations because of underestimates of housing shifts and lack of consideration of service job shifts in the George Mason University forecasts.”

Schwartz concluded, “We urge the Department of Defense and regional agencies to find innovative design solutions to security threats, so that defense facilities can remain within walking distance of transit, and near to services.   We ask that the Commission not approve proposals to move defense agencies away from efficient Metro station locations.”

See report at http://www.smartergrowth.net/regions/metroregion/SMIBRACv2.pdf

11:31:24 AM