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Sunday, July 17, 2005 |
| At 11 PM EDT the center of dangerous Hurricane Emily was at 19.9 North 86.5 West, 50 miles south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph and minimum central pressure is 955 millibars 28.20". With the flight level winds that were reported by the reconnaisance plane, the wind intensity would be a little bit higher, but as pressure has risen steadily since the plane entered the storm this evening, the intensity is held at 135 mph, a category four hurricane. Not much change is expected in intensity before the first landfall. A weak upper level low may be delivering some shear to Emily thereby holding down her strength. The global forecast models suggest that this low will move away and weaken leaving Emily with favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. How much Emily restrengthens after she passes over the Yucatan is dependent on how much her internal structure is affected. Track forecast reasoning is unchanged, the forecast itself is basically unchanged as well. "A hurricane watch will probably be issued tomorrow for a portion of the western Gulf of Mexico including the southern Texas coast early on Monday." 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:04:19 PM  trackback []
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| At 8 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 19.6 North 85.9 West, 90 miles east south-east of Cozumel Mexico and moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph and minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.08"). Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 26
A bit of an update on the tourist areas from El Universal (in Spanish)My rough translation of the parts pertaining to how many people remained in what areas: 25,490 tourists could not leave Cancun but were located in safe places.
The one hopeful thing is that the worst of Emily should remain to the south of Cancun. Also, this map of Cozumel Island
indicates that the hotels are on the channel side of the island, i.e.
they aren't windward/seaward. That makes them a bit more safer
than if they were located otherwise. (Thanks to Fresh Bilge for the link to that map, btw). 34,950 vistors had left the Rivera Maya, leaving 9,558 who were located in hotels that were serving as shelters In Cozumel there remained 2,750 tourists...3,150 had left. Hotel occupancy in Chetumal is 83% and there is room for tourists displaced from the north. 100 tourists remained in the Islas Mujeres, they signed a letter acknowledging responsibility, while 1,400 had left. Shifting to storm talk...while Emily wasn't looking to great earlier this afternoon, she may be getting one last round of intensification in before landfall now. The winds and pressure are from recent hurricane hunter observations. It seems probable that the hurricane was weaker at some point between the departure of the last plane at two this afternoon and the arrival of the current one at seven. 2005 Hurricane Season comment []8:06:13 PM trackback []
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| At 5 PM EDT the center of Hurricane Emily was at 19.4 North 84.2 West,135 miles southest of Cozumel, Mexico and moving the the west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph and minimum central pressure is 948 millibars ( 27.99"). Wind speed is based on the last report from the hurricane hunter earlier this afternoon. Since then, the indications from satellite images have been mixed. The overall pattern is better, however, the eye is less distinct. Cancun radar suggests that an outer eyewall may be forming, but that could be an inaccurate view. Model guidance is suggesting that the trough approaching from the northwest may have more of an effect on the high pressure ridge than previously expected. This has the effect of Emily moving more northwest than west after passing over the Yucatan. The NHC forecast is shifted northward accordingly, and is now in the middle of the model guidance rather than to the northern side of it. This change increases the storm's threat to southern Texas. A burst of intensification is possible before Emily's Yucatan landfall, however, if an outer eyewall is forming, then that would be unlikely. Intensity afterwards is highly dependent on Emily's structure when she enters the Gulf of Mexico, therefore the intensity forecast in the latter periods is subject to a high margin of error. "Nevertheless Emily is expected to make landfall on the North American mainland as a major hurricane". Here is the view from Cancun radar mentioned in the discussion:  I really don't have much to say that I didn't say in the 2 PM update, except to repeat the warning to people in south-east Texas. The upper part of the forecast cone now covers a fair amount of that area and as the forecast is prone to be change, it could be shifted further north as time goes by. Residents definitely should be preparing for the arrival of a major hurricane in their vicinity on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []5:00:49 PM trackback []
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| Again, from El Universal of Mexico City. Yesterday, two passengers aboard a helicopter that was being used to evacuate workers of the Mexico's state owned petroleum company from oil platforms died when their helicopter crashed into the Bay of Campeche. The two, the pilot and co-pilot of the helicopter were the only ones aboard at the time of the crash. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []4:01:32 PM trackback []
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| At 2 PM the center of dangerous Hurricane Emily was at 19.0 North 84.4 West, 195 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Movement is to the west-northwest at 20 mph and minimum central pressure is 948 millibars (27.99"). A grave situation seems to exist in the tourist areas. From a Mexico City newspaper : 20,000 tourists remain grounded in Cancun (title is my translation from Spanish). There were 300 flights scheduled to leave today, at least 40 of those are being cancelled due to the closure of the airport at 5 PM local time. Those flights would have taken 5,000 tourists out of the area. The tidbit (from a Cancun area newspaper) in the upper right hand corner here (PDF file, may or may not load) indicated that there was shelter for about 32,000 tourists...however, there are 80,000 tourists in the area... worse yet, the capacity of the busses to evacutate those going to the shelters was only 20,000 or so. From what I gather from English language press, the plan for tourisits that they can't get out of the area to shelter are being put in the interior parts of hotels that are not sea-side. Not the best of situations. One hopes that they did get Cozumel completely evacuated, as that looks to be the part of the Peninsula that will get the worst of the storm. This area was hit hard by Hurricane Gilbert. At the time though, it was much less built up. The number of the tourists in the area is something like four times greater than it was in 1988. Closer to home, it is disconcerting that the top story of the Brownsville Herald is about Harry Potter. Nowhere on the front page at this time, can one find any information about the storm. Were it not for the story about being on the look-out for price gouging, one would have no idea that a hurricane is nearing their area. Fortunately the NBC affiliate in Corpus Christi appears to be on top of things. While the forecast has not been updated, it is likely that it will feature a more northward track after the Yucatan landfall than the previous forecast. Just about all of the global forecast models shifted their tracks northward. While they indicate a point of landfall is just south of the Rio Grande, they indicate a serious situation for those in southern Texas as that puts the worst of the winds in the Brownsville area. At this point people in low lying areas (especially those on the islands) should be prepared to evacuate by Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, people should be in the process of stocking up on supplies and readying their homes for the arrival of a major hurricane. As I stated earlier, this area has not seen a storm of this magnitude in over 20 years, and residents are not as seasoned as those in say, Alabama and west Florida. For that reason, I recommend the NHC's hurricane preparedness site as a resource for those uncertain of what actions they should be taking at this time. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []3:42:55 PM trackback []
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AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE At 11 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Emily was at 18.6 North 83.6 West, 250 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Movement is to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 150 mph and minimum central pressure is 946 millibars (27.94") Observations from satellite and the recon plane indicate that Emily has weakened slightly over the past twelve hours. The reasoning behind the track forecast is the same as it has been for days now. Emily is south of a ridge of high pressure that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This causes Emily to move west-northwest. The ridge is expected to persist, although there is the possibility of it weakened by a trough approaching it from the northwest that may create a weakness in the ridge (the idea that such a weakness would alter Emily's course, allowing her to move more to the north is questionable, however). The latter part of the forecast track is on the northern side of forecast model guidance. The reason for the slight weakening is unclear. While there will be fluctuations in intensity Emily is expected to retain her strength before passing over the Yucatan Peninsula and to continue to be a major hurricane after that. I have only been looking at Emily related stuff for about half an hour or so. For that reason, I don't have much to comment on. Right now the forecast looks to be on track, if not a bit too far north. Emily's appearance isn't quite as sharp as it was yesterday, but she still packs a fierce punch. A note from the discussion earlier this morning: AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []11:31:31 AM trackback []
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| At 2 AM EDT the center of dangerous Hurricane Emily was at 17.7 North 81.2 West 110 miles south of Grand Cayman, and 415 miles east-southeast of Cozumel Mexico. Movement is to the west-northwest at 18 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 150 mph and pressure is 943 millibars (27.85") An eyewall replacement cycle started during the second half of the mission, which kind of took the drama out of it. With warmer sea surface temperatures and an upper-air situation that seems to be unchanged, Emily has a reasonable chance of making category five tomorrow. Looking at the forecast track, by 7 AM EDT she will be on the same line of longitude where Ivan went category five for his third and longest time and where Hurricane Gilbert went category five (albeit Emily is a little bit farther south than where they were... see my danger zone map and compare to official track forecast. Recon will be entering the storm at around 7 in the morning, so I better cut this off so I can get some sleep...
The global forecast models
are virtually unaminous in forecasting landfall somewhere between
Cancun and south of Cozumel on Sunday night. Four of the five
have converged on a solution for the second landfall; Northern Mexico,
somewhat away from the US border on Wednesday (looking at regional
maps, the area is kind of empty, so I don't have a good reference
point. Not much different (if different at all) from the current
NHC forecast). The one outlier is NOGAPS, it is showing a
landfall further south, in the vicinity of Tampico. One of my
professors once offered the wisdom that if models are converging on a
solution that is not in the short term (2 days or sooner), then that
solution is usually wrong. That wisdom, combined with the fact
that NOGAPS has handled this storm better than three of the four
members of the cluster (the European has rivalled it), and the lack of
anything obviously wrong with the solution, suggests that the NOGAPS
solution may indeed be right. |
| Dropsondes found that pressure has risen to 939 millibars. Eyewall dropsonde found 850 millibar winds of 155 knots... 2005 Hurricane Season comment []12:26:15 AM trackback []
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© Copyright
2005
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 8/2/2005; 1:56:13 PM .
Last update: 8/2/2005; 1:56:13 PM .
