Wednesday, August 03, 2005 | |
The tropical wave I mentioned yestersday that is in the eastern Atlantic continues to look like a future tropical depression/storm. The Tropical Weather Outlook mentions it thusly: THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models continue to suggest that this will develop and move to the northwest and eventually to the north such that it would not threaten land. However, the GFDL has a dissenting position. It keeps the wave on a more westerly course that would increase the probability of it affecting land at some point. Due to how far out it is, we will have plenty of time to watch and wait. SLIGHTLY LATER: This Quickscat image shows what the winds are in the eastern Atlantic. If you look along the 12° North line, between 28° and 30° West, you can see the tell-tale sign of a closed circulation: winds shifting in a counter-clockwise manner, forming a circle. Arguably, that image is enough to classify this as a tropical depression. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []7:42:10 PM   trackback []  |
THE FIRST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE Needless to say, this throws all previous intensity forecasts out of whack. The last intensity model forecast only brought the system up to 50 knots. However, an important part of that inensity model is the current strength of the system (which is set by a human). If the initial intensity isn't set correctly, then the model output isn't going to be accurate. Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape. No surprises as far as track goes. 2005 Hurricane Season, Weather comment []2:46:23 PM   trackback []  |