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Sunday, May 22, 2005 |
Get used to hearing the term "H5N1" because we're all going to hear about it in the near future.
H5N1 is the new SARS. It's more commonly known as Bird Flu and it's spreading in Asia -- starting in Vietnam, but recently spotted in China, Thailand and Indonesia. Currnently can spread from bird to bird and bird to human through excretions. There have been a couple of isolated cases where it is possible that it spread human-to-human, but there is no definitive proof of that. The WHO believes, however, that if H5N1 mutates to spread human-to-human, we will have ourselves the next global flu pandemic. Bad omen: they just found it in pigs, which could be just the right environment to mutuate again.
The last two global flu pandemics were in 1918 and 1968. In 1918, it killed 50 million people worldwide. The current bird flu has approximately a 70% human mortality rate -- even in healthy adults -- though experts believe that in mutating to become human-to-human transmissable, it will become less deadly. Last week it was reported that Vietnam is seeing a lower mortality rate, 35%, which is good news in that fewer people are dying, but bad news that it may be the leading indicator that H5N1 is indeed mutating.
Researchers are working on a vaccine to protect humans from the existing H5N1 strains that we could catch from birds. But since the virus hasn't mutated yet, there isn't a vaccine developed that would protect humans from a human-human transmissable mutation. Expect it would take 6 months to develop once the virus is isolated, then longer to manufacture in large vollumes. In 1968, it took 9 months for the flu to get from Asia to the rest of the world; if it happens this time, experts predict it would take only 3 months. Do the math.
So what are we supposed to do? Well, the first piece of good news is that the WHO, the CDC, and in particular Asian govenrments, are mobilizing now. China is on top of their latest outbreak (and applying all the lessons they learned form SARS). Vietnam is stepping up too. As draconian as it seems, we might have to drastically limit international travel until the vaccine is available. And we can all practice better hygiene -- I think we're all going to be washing our hands a lot more often next winter.
And yet, many experts at the WHO conference last week were of the belief that we're now beyond "if" and it's now simply a matter of "when."
Here's the CDC's page on bird flu. Get educated, because this is going to be super important.
10:20:43 PM 
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I went to see Star Wars, Episode III late last night -- by myself, but went to the biggest theater on the Eastside so I could feel the full experience.
First, the quick review: I liked it. I thought it was a lot of fun. I've tried to have reasonable expectations about Star Wars all along: that it's space opera, meant to be taken lightly. I wasn't looking for any great messages about humanity, the triumph of good over evil, morality plays, etc. It's two and a half hours of entertainment, and it was a rollicking good ride for the whole two and a half hours. Yes, the Anakin/Padme dialogue sucks; I just imagine them singing it, and it makes it all forgivable. The special effects are absolutely over the top, as are the light-sabre duels. It was fun watching Lucas cleverly line up everything to lead into Episode IV -- you could tell that he worked very hard at it, and his attention to detail paid off handsomely. In particular, there are some very nice visual touches that connect the dots splendidly.
28 years ago, I saw Star Wars with my cousin in a theater in New York. The two of us were utterly blown away at the end of the movie. Last night was strange for me, watching something almost 30 years later, that sets the stage for the thing I saw so very long ago.
Watching Episode III late at night was cool -- night brought a dark foreboding which set the tone right, and especially with weird stormy, blustery weather that has been going through Seattle the last few days, as if something has gone very wrong with the world. And when the movie got out, it was well past midnight and everything was eeerily still, reinforcing the feeling that something was done, once and for all. I highly recommend that others go to see the movie late at night too.
This evening, my daughters (who have not seen Episode III yet) and I watched Episode IV at home. I found myself privately smiling once again at Lucas' cleverness with Episode III, because he lets you read things into Ep IV -- particularly Obi-Wan -- that you never saw before. Even though I've seen the movie at least a dozen times, this time it really struck me how much Alec Guinness really carried the first 2/3 of the movie. There are three real actors: Guinness, Harrison Ford, and Peter Cushing (Governor Tarkin). Everyone else is just a hack. Considering how the part of Obi-Wan was unlike anything Guinness (or ayone else, for the matter) had every portrayed before, he found a depth and seriousness in the character that really comes through. OK, so he couldn't sword-fight for beans, and that's the one real continuity weakness; after seeing Count Dooku, Palpatine, and Yoda fly around in their duels, you would expect a lot more from an elder Obi-wan, especially since Episodes I-III confirm that he's one of the best light-sabre duelists in the galaxy.
OK, I'm going to stop now before I accidentally spill the beans on some of the goodies in Episode III. Go see it, and have fun.
9:41:04 PM
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I recently finished reading Naked Pictures of Famous People, by Jon Stewart.
For those of you who have been living in a cave, Stewart is the host of The Daily Show on Comedy Central. The book is a collection of essays and one-chapter stories, the essays much along the lines of Dennis Miller's books, and the rest very much in the spirit of Woody Allen's Without Feathers (or Side Effects, or Getting Even -- I loved all three) -- weird takes on ordinary situations. The language is coarser than Allen would use, but it's just as side-splitting.
This book was published in 1999, so some of the current-event references are a little dated, but unless you slept through the Clinton administration, you'll follow it just fine.
Stewart pokes fun at Jewish culture a lot in the book -- as he also tends to do on his TV show (he's Jewish). Funny, good-natured stuff.
His send-up of Martha Stewart (pre-ImClone scandal) was one of my favorite chapters in the book.
I had a very difficult time putting this book down -- I stayed up late way too many nights reading it. But it was so worth it, and I highly recommend it.
By the way, there's only one actual naked picture of a famous person -- a cute little fake of Abe Lincoln, with his private parts and his eyes covered up with black rectangles (as if covering his eyes would make Abe any less recognizable).
I'm just starting my way through Tough Calls, which is about PR inn general and AT&T in particular.
8:39:53 PM
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© Copyright 2005 Kevin Schofield.
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