Thursday, May 13, 2004

Sent: Thursday, May 13, 2004 3:01 PM Subject: NAR-2004 Outlook Fm: Ocean Marine Nav, Inc. NJ/USA 1800Z 13 MAY 2004 Weather Pattern Synopsis Bermuda High Pressure centered just north of the island near 34N 65W will continue to be the dominant weather feature of the SW Atlantic into mid next week, with pressure ridging westward toward the S.Carolina-Georgia border, to the lower Mississippi Valley. The prevailing mod-fresh/4-5 to strong/6 trade wind flow across the 20N-27N latitudes of the Bahamas to Florida will continue at least through Monday/17th. Northward of 27N, winds ease to the pressure ridgeline to 05-15kt. During the early to end week next, the western Atlantic high pressure ridge will persist, although it will be re-formed during the Mon/17-Tue/18 period by a cool Canadian High Pressure cell that will drop SE'ward to the Bermuda area. The leading edge of that cool air will move into the Bermuda waters on Tue/18, with a weak wind shift in the region. However, except for some rain showers, some increase in wave heights, the resulting conditions are expected to be low-risk. We suggest consideration of a route out of Ft.Lauderdale direct to near waypoint 29-00N 79-30W, then the rhumb line to approaches Bermuda. This route attempts to use the Gulf Stream north set for the initial day out, while transiting a bit closer to the high pressure ridge and easier wind/sea. For the group departure Sunday/16th along this route expect: Sun/16: E'ly 15-22kt. Sea/swell ENE 6-7ft, to 5-6ft late, 7sec periods. Mon/17: E to ESE 11-19kt. Swell ENE-E 5-6ft occ 7ft, 8-9sec. Tue/18: ESE-SE ease 05-15kt early, backing wind ENE 10-20kt by midday. Swell East 4-6ft, build NE 6-7ft later in day. Wed/19: ENE-E 11-21kt. Swell NE to ENE 6-8ft morning, ENE-E 5-7ft late. Thu/20: E-ESE 10-17kt AM, ESE-SE 08-16kt PM. ENE-E 5-7ft subside 5-6ft afternoon. Fri/21-Arrival: SE 05-15kt. East 5-6ft. Updating daily. B/Rgds, Walt/OMNI 11:12:03 PM    comment []

Rally weatherman Walt Stack of Ocean Marine Nav says we're good to go on Sunday, although it will be a bit bumpy. I'll try to get the actual text of his analysis, forecast and route recommendation. 6:10:53 PM    comment []

Quote of the day: "Fifty percent of radar installations are not properly aligned. Many people who call themselves technicians are what we call dock runners. They bolt the thing in place, collect their money, and run off down the dock." --Eric Kunz, product manager, Furuno U.S.A., speaking at a seminar for rally captains and crews 11:16:49 AM    comment []

I've added several links on the right. Take a look at Blog of Sans Souci for one participant's view on his rally experience. Check out the weather sites for current conditions, analysis and forecasts. There has been a steady wind in the 15-to-25-knot range from the east for the last week, kicking up the sea, but Walt Hack, rally meteorologist, believes conditions will improve by Sunday when the first half of the fleet, comprising the smaller vessels, is set to depart. 7:33:01 AM    comment []