Interview with Ajit Jaokar and Tony Fish. 
Ajit Jaokar and Tony Fish have just published a book about mobile
application development (not as techie as it sounds!), so I took the
opportunity to grab them and find out all about it for you.
A little background. Ajit was my co-author on my book on MMS and is
one of the most well-connected people in the UK mobile scene - actually
his reach is pretty global too. He's been in the mobile space since
1999 and he really knows the technical aspects of the business. Having
said that, he can also communicate happily with non-geeks like me. This
makes him a fairly unique individual, being able to understand and work
on both technical and commercial levels.
Tony Fish wears numerous hats. He has his own venture fund for the
mobile/wireless sector, putting his money at risk - that's having real
faith in an idea. He's also Chairman of the Wireless Ecademy and it was great to meet up with him at the recent launch in Germany.
Their new book, OpenGardens, also has a foreword by Mike Short, one
of the highest profile people in the UK mobile industry today. Mike is
a VP of O2 and Chairman of the Mobile Data Association and his support
for the book demonstrates how seriously it'll be taken in the operator
community.
OpenGardens tackles a subject dear to my heart - how to foster innovation in the mobile industry. So, let's start the questions:
What is the [OE]elevator pitch[base '] for OpenGardens?
Open gardens addresses the question [OE]Why don't a thousand flowers -
or entrepreneurs - bloom in the mobile data industry? OpenGardens is a
book for the innovator - the person with an idea who wants to create a
commercially successful service within the mobile industry.
While the mobile industry holds considerable promise for the future,
the existing ecosystem is really challenging for the 'grassroots
entrepreneur'. This book acts as a guide by offering a two-stage
roadmap. Firstly, how to work within the existing ecosystem and then
how to prepare for the more complex ecosystem of the future.
We believe that without an 'innovative component', new services will
not succeed in this industry (especially when they are not backed by
strong brands, extensive funding etc). Thus, innovation is necessary [^]
both for the new entrant, but also for the industry as a whole to
thrive.
Further, we believe that opportunities exist [OE]on the fringe[base '] by
combining one or more elements to create a new service. Hence, the book
takes a holistic view and acts as a catalyst and mentor to innovators.
It prepares them to exploit opportunities in an industry estimated to
earn a trillion dollars ($1000 billion) in revenues worldwide by 2010
Who should read it and why?
Anyone creating a new mobile data service [^] either within or outside
the industry would benefit from reading it. We take a holistic view [^]
covering both the developer[base ']s viewpoint and the mobile operators'
needs. We cover topics like [OE]How to sell/position your service to the
operator[base '], partnering, distribution channels, competitive advantage etc
Is this a [OE]technical[base '] book?
OpenGardens does have a technical component, but it is mainly a
strategic book. The technologies used to create mobile applications are
the same as on the web (Java, XML etc). We highlight the differences
and focus on basic principles of Location, Messaging, m-commerce etc
and provide a comparison of Operator developer programs.
However, mainly we deal with strategy with the goal of creating useful new services.
You have been writing OpenGardens for a while now .. why did it take so long?
Yes, indeed. We have heard the familiar [OE]whoosh[base '] of passing deadlines a few times now :-)
On a more serious note .. We actually interviewed many mobile
operators and developers to back up our thoughts with hard-nosed, first
hand information. This is vital to developers planning new services but
unfortunately takes a long time to compile.
Are the operators' walled gardens stifling innovation?
I's not that simple, unfortunately. It would have been easy to write
an [OE]operator bashing[base '] book or at the other extreme a [OE]pie in the sky[base ']
book aimed at the distant future. OpenGardens takes a pragmatic
approach and asks what can we do [OE]now[base '] and at the same time plan for a
truly [OE]OpenGardens[base '] scenario where many fascinating applications are
possible.
So, what does [OE]OpenGardens[base '] mean? And how is it relevant in creating new applications?
The title [OE]OpenGardens[base '] evokes a variety of responses [^] ranging from
the open source evangelist who gets misty-eyed thinking of [OE]Linux on
every Mobile device[base '] to the Mobile operator who insists [^] [OE]There are no
walled gardens!'
[OE]Openness[base '] itself can mean many things
a) Openness of access for the customer (i.e. the ability to access any content from their Mobile device)
b) Openness of platforms (for example a level playing field for
third party applications as compared to the provider[base ']s applications) or
c) [OE]Open source[base '] as defined by OpenSource.org
Our definition of [OE]OpenGardens[base '] refers mainly to [OE]openness of
platforms[base ']. By [OE]platform[base '], in the Mobile applications context, we mean
the Mobile operator[base ']s infrastructure.
Why do you say that "new services will not succeed without an innovative component"?
We need innovation [^] the [OE]garage[base '] mentality to thrive in this
industry. By "garage", we mean an entity or individual who has an
unfavorable negotiating position with the Mobile operator.
It[base ']s easier to explain this by looking at the opposite i.e. entities who have a favorable
position with respect to Mobile operators. These include [^] well known
brands like Coca-Cola, large communities like Friends Reunited, unique
content like [OE]CNN[base '] and anyone who has a large amount of money to spend!
Unless they have a unique proposition, practically everyone else is
in the [OE]garage[base '] (even if they are venture funded) because they are
approaching the operator from an unfavorable negotiating position.
Thus, it[base ']s a large garage!
This situation means that you need to be able to differentiate. You
cannot take on the existing players head-on. This is a large market.
It[base ']s a market that will not thrive unless effective partnerships are
formed. Thus, there is a need for new players and new partners in the
value chain. However, starting [OE]in the garage[base '] as we define it above,
implies your strategy has to be different from that adopted by entities
that are not in the garage.
Can you give some examples of [OE]opportunities at the fringe[base '] or opportunities created from [OE]combining different elements[base ']?
Let us use the example of Mobile games here.
This sector of the industry has shown a lot of promise recently.
There are already players who are creating content i.e. games which
their customers want. We see a critical mass of handsets in the
marketplace, billing is possible and aggregator models already exist.
However, developing a [OE]me too[base '] game in the industry at this stage is a
recipe for failure because the market is already saturated with many
Mobile games.
The numbers present a sobering picture. How many game downloads would it need to attain a profit?
The Mobile game industry is similar to the PC or console game
market. Traditionally sales are heavily skewed to the top ten titles,
and in many cases the top five take a huge portion of the entire
market. Most titles lose money. Net margins for Mobile operator and
aggregator distribution models (for example using aggregators like
Cellmania, mForma etc) run from 60% to 75% in the USA. In other
markets, it could be worse (for example, India), or better (for
example, Japan and Korea).
In the USA, a game typically retails at $3.99, for an "over the
air"/ or "OTA" delivery. Product development costs for a single player
game title could range up to $40K, including handset testing and
porting (but that could get a lot cheaper if developed overseas).
Assuming a net of $2 after all costs, we need sales of 20,000 units
just to break even. This gets even worse because many successful titles
depend on a brand [^] for example, a [OE]Harry Potter[base '] game. Brands have
their own costs leaving even less for the developer in the middle.
Thus, most existing titles are not making money [^] so new entrants have an even more uphill task.
But there are opportunities in this sector today because variants in
the Mobile gaming space are possible [^] for example, 3D games, networked
(multiplayer games) and games for women, to name just three.
In these variants, there is some scope for innovation and new
players, but note that each of these examples must broaden the scope of
the basic offering along a new dimension i.e. a simple Mobile game. For
example [^] combining the basic game with new technology (3D), combining
the game with a community (multiplayer games) and combining the game
with a demographic sub sector (women).
OpenGardens hopes to facilitate this type of thinking by acting as
an [OE]ideas pot[base '] where you can understand the building blocks that could
then be combined in a unique way to create a new service.
So how how can readers get hold of a copy and what's the price?
The book is launched at a promotional price of £25 for the holiday season and can be purchased from Open Gardens
Finally, some more general questions. Who do you most admire in the mobile industry?
Ajit: Hans Snook
Tony: Chris Gent and Stelios - power to audacity - not sure that they would like to be considered in the same sentence!
What's your favourite mobile application?
Ajit: email!
Tony: That depends on time of day and immediate requirement - I will
use what is available - when I need it, unfortunately not always
available - therefore - OpenGardens.
Make 3 predictions for the mobile industry for the next 5 years (not too predictable!)
Ajit: I don't like predictions! But my bet would be on mobile
blogging, video and mobile multiplayer games - all being commonplace.
Tony: The predictable: more of the same, cheaper calls, more powerful devices.
And off-the-wall: wearable fashion devices go large, location based gets going, OpenGardens has fostered 10,000 innovations.
[The Mobile Technology Weblog]
3:16:40 PM 
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