Bear Flag Republic Radio Weblog

Job Opportunities.

Many people credited President Clinton with low unemployment in the 1990s. In reality, we had high unemployment in the 1980s because of so many people born over a short time as part of the post WW II "baby boom" generation. (And its not their fault, but their parents fault that they all were born as a big block). We had low unemployment in the 1990s because there were 28% fewer 20 to 29 year olds in the 1990s. Which comes a surprise to a great many people.

The following chart, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, illustrates this phenomena quite nicely:

The population growth (just over half of which is due to immigration into the U.S.), was much higher in the 1980s than it is today. And this is why employers now wish to import workers from abroad. Because they cannot find the workers they want at the price they are willing to pay.

The effect also shows up in this chart:

The chart is biased by a number of factors, including, fewer workers aged 20 to 29, a desire by employers to have "experienced" workers in their 30s, people are more likely to be employed in their "middle ages" because of family responsibilities, and as workers age, some choose early retirement, or are hit by mortality.

New employment opportunities, looking forward, will increasingly require advanced training:

This phenomena points to a topic I wrote about yesterday, and previously, which is that future workers may see a lower return on investment for advanced education and training. As the job market increasingly demands advanced education, will workers be paid correspondingly more? Current salary charts indicate, for example, that the "sweet spot" in earnings potential is a Masters degree. There is insufficient increase in salary for a person with a Ph.D. to recoup the expense and lost wages spent earning the degree.

More is available in this table.

Of interest, for many job categories, the reason for so many "new job openings" is not growth in the field, but replacement of existing workers as they leave the field or workforce.

Jobs with the greatest numerical increase in job positions:

Job growth, as a percentage growth, again puts computer jobs at the top:

This looks good for computer fields - except that we know that many of these jobs will be filled by imported workers on the H-1B or L-1 visa, or the "new jobs" will be moved to offshore locations. AT&T Wireless is in process of laying off its IT workers in Washington in order to move jobs offshore. IBM, Amex, Bank of America, Perot Data Systems, and many others are doing the same.
The BLS estimates a total of 1.9 million new "IT" jobs over six years. Which is hilarious for those who remember the ITAA's forecast of 1.8 million new IT jobs in the year 2000 alone! That forecast did not even past the giggle test since the overall economy was going to generate just 2 million new jobs.
More information available from the BLS. [Edward Mitchell: Common Sense Technology]

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