The Farmer's Weblog
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Friday, October 18, 2002 |
Others EU 0 1 1997 2000 2003(f) Broiler Meat Exports Recover After Russia Lifts Trade Restrictions Others EU US Brazil 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1997 2000 2003(f) Million tons (RTC) U.S. meat exports (beef, pork, broiler and turkey) are forecast to increase 7.7 percent to a record of 4.6 million tons in 2003. Japan, the largest market for U.S. beef and pork, is expected to continue its gradual recovery from the 2001 BSE crisis. While Japanese consumers regain confidence, however, the imposition of safeguard tariffs on beef could constrain some of the prospects for growth in beef imports. Mexican demand for U.S. meat is expected to grow as tariffs under NAFTA are scheduled for elimination in 2003. Global competition in all three commodities will likely intensify as the EU and the recently approved accession countries streamline production to accommodate tightening environmental standards. At the same time, Australia[base ']s increased beef production and limited opportunities for increased exports to the U.S. will place downward pressure on beef prices in other major export markets.
This is a major fact filled report. Check the link for all of the details.
6:33:56 PM 
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The MY 2002/03 U.S. production forecast was lowered slightly this month (less than one percent) as a combination of weather problems in the Southeast offset higher forecasts in all other regions. The domestic use forecast is unchanged from last month. The U.S. export forecast was reduced nearly 2 percent, primarily because export sales thus far in the marketing year have been slower than expected. These changes pushed up the U.S. ending stocks forecast 100,000 bales to 6.8 million.
For all of the details (and there are many) check out the link.
6:21:27 PM comment []
5:31:06 PM
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Average spot quotations were 120 points higher than the previous week, according to the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service?s Cotton Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-36 and 43-49, strength 26.5-28.4, uniformity 81) in the seven designated markets averaged 38.54 cents per pound for the week ending Thursday, October 17. The weekly average was up from 37.34 cents per pound for the previous week. Quotations ranged from a low of 37.83 cents on Monday, October 14 to a high of 39.17 cents on Thursday, October 17. The NY December 2002 futures settlement price ended the week at 44.04 cents compared to 43.54 cents a week ago.
Western markets. Spot cotton trading continued inactive in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Supplies increased as
the harvest expanded. Demand was very light. Buyers were waiting for new crop supplies to be offered. No
purchases for domestic mills were reported as mill agents rejected merchant prices. No forward contracting was
reported. A moderate volume of 2002-crop option-to-purchase business was done between growers and merchants
at around 70.50 cents, basis color 31, leaf 3, staple 35, mike 35-49, all entitlements to the buyer, delivered as ginned
(UD free, FOB warehouse). Agents for mills in Japan purchased a light amount of Acala cotton for November to
December shipment. Receiving and shipping of earlier sales by longshoremen was slow because of backlogs at
West Coast ports. According to NASS, the California crop was twenty-five percent harvested as of October 13.
The harvest was in full swing across much of the San Joaquin Valley. Defoliant applications continued in only a
few locations. The crop remained in mostly good to excellent condition. Excellent weather continued.
5:14:34 PM comment []
5:08:57 PM
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Will There Still Be A Price Rally? Expectations for $70+ fed cattle prices this quarter have diminished as the supply of beef and competing meats remains strong and both domestic and export demand continues to be challenged by events such as meat recalls and the West Coast dock strike. Although beef cattle slaughter is down 1.7% year-to-date, carcass weights have been about 3.6% higher in 2002 relative to last year. As a result, year-to-date beef production is up 4.5%. Increased beef production, coupled with the tendency for cattle feeders to place proportionately more heavy cattle on feed through the summer months, have caused burdensome beef supplies going into the fourth quarter. With large supplies of beef and other meats, slaughter cattle prices have languished in the mid $60s since June.
8:06:38 AM
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