No-sex therapy 'not working'. Sex abstinence programmes do not stop risky sexual behaviour or stop unwanted pregnancy, a study says. [BBC News | Health | World Edition]

This has been shown again and again. Abstinence only programs do not work and are a waste of money. Yet over 1/3 of the HIV money goes toward these programs. Programs that have absolutely no effect, positive or negative. What a waste!  11:57:23 PM    

Merck report: $358m in Gardasil sales for Q2; $1 billion total for vaccines While we don't typically highlight corporate earnings reports or similar news, the quarterly report released Monday by Merck for April-June 2007 provides some new information about the growing market for vaccines, and, in particular, Gardasil. Here's coverage from yesterday's New York Times, "Another Quarter of Strong Results by Merck," and a similar story from Reuters.

Since this news comes directly from the company, the Merck press release is particularly useful. Here's part of what it says about vaccines:

"Total vaccine sales, as recorded by Merck, were $1.0 billion for the quarter, compared to $349 million in the second quarter of 2006. The growth in vaccine sales was led by the performance of GARDASIL along with strong contributions from ROTATEQ and other pediatric vaccines. Vaccines in most major European markets are sold through the Companyís joint venture, Sanofi Pasteur MSD, and the results from its interest in the joint venture are recorded in equity income from affiliates.

Total sales as recorded by Merck for GARDASIL, the Company's cervical cancer vaccine, were $358 million for the second quarter. As of the second quarter, GARDASIL has been approved in 80 countries, many under fast-track or expedited review; and launched in 59 of those countries. The vaccine remains under review in approximately 40 other countries.

ROTATEQ, Merck's vaccine to help protect children against rotavirus gastroenteritis, achieved worldwide sales, as recorded by Merck, of $119 million for the quarter. As of the second quarter, ROTATEQ has been approved in 61 countries and it has launched in 22 of those countries."

The release goes on to note sales figures for Proquad ($89 million), Varivax ($147 million), and Zostavax ($47 million).

A companion document released by Merck breaks down sales between the U.S. market and internationally. Nearly 80% of Gardasil sales were in the U.S. ($286 million), as were an amazing 96% of RotaTeq sales ($114 million). There's little doubt from these data that the U.S. is leading the way in the uptake of these two fairly new vaccines, despite the far greater need for cervical cancer and rotavirus prevention internationally.

Overall, $1 billion in vaccine sales for a single company in a three-month period is perhaps the best evidence to date of the potential profitability of vaccines to an extent not previously seen. As for Gardasil, it is difficult to work backwards from the sales figures given ($358m) to ascertain the number of doses sold during the April-June period, since governments and insurance companies pay less than the well-known $120/dose 'sticker price'. This CDC price list shows a cost of $96.75/dose for Gardasil as part of the Vaccines for Children program. Using those figures as endpoints, a very rough estimate would suggest 3-4 million doses were sold, or enough doses to fully vaccinate slightly more than 1 million girls.

Given the size of the population for whom vaccination is recommended (all females 11-26), the potential growth of the Gardasil market is staggering, perhaps explaining, in part, the company's apparent enthusiasm to promote its vaccine in advance of the arrival of GSK's Cervarix. - J. Schwartz [Ethics of Vaccines]

A billion dollars in 1 quarter from vaccines. This is not a bad place to be.  8:28:48 PM    

Best Curve-Fitting Ever.

From Mark Thoma, via Brad DeLong, comes what will henceforth be my absolutely favorite example of twisting data to fit your theories. Observe the following graph of corporate tax rates vs. revenue in units of GDP:

Pretty straightforward, really. As you raise taxes, the government collects more revenue. Norway seems to collect more than its fair share, which might be interesting to dig into, but the trend seems clear. But there’s something nagging at the back of your mind — aren’t there people out there in the world who believe that raising taxes actually decreases revenue past some certain not-very-high tax rate? “Supply-side economists,” or something like that? People who exert a wildly disproportionate influence on U.S. tax policy? What would they make of such a graph?

Yes, Virginia, there is such a thing as supply-side economics, and you can find its practitioners in such out-of-the way places as the American Enterprise Institute and the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal. Here is how such people view these data:

No, I am not being unfair. I did not draw the “Laffer Curve” on top of those data in order to embarrass the WSJ or AEI. They did it themselves; the second graph is how the plot was actually published by the Journal, while the first one was Mark Thoma’s subsequent reality-based-community version of the plot. As Kevin Drum says, it’s “like those people who find an outline of the Virgin Mary in a potato chip.”

Among other features, we note with amusement that the plotted curve implies that tax revenues hit zero at a corporate tax rate of about 33%, and become dramatically negative thereafter. As of this writing, it is unclear what advanced statistical software package was used to fit the Laffer Curve to the data; the smart money seems to be on MS Paint.

[Cosmic Variance]

One of the greatest examples of out right lying in a graph. No way does any rational mind draw a Laffer curve through that data. I wonder if it was simply getting ready for the inaccuracies to be expected now that Murdoch will be in charge?  8:25:53 PM    

Antievolutionist appointed to head Texas state board of education. July 26, 2007: On July 17, 2007, Don McLeroy was appointed by Texas governor Rick Perry (R) to chair the state board of education, succeeding Geraldine Miller. A member of the board for the last eight years, McLeroy was described by the ... [National Center for Science Education]

Continuing on in the wonderful Texas tradition. Know-nothings and Luddites in charge of education. Isn't America wonderful?  8:14:56 PM    

Malicious Prosecution.

Jeralyn is traveling, but I think she would want to highlight this Richard Moran Op-Ed on bad faith prosecution:

My recently completed study of the 124 exonerations of death row inmates in America from 1973 to 2007 indicated that 80, or about two-thirds, of their so-called wrongful convictions resulted not from good-faith mistakes or errors but from intentional, willful, malicious prosecutions by criminal justice personnel. (There were four cases in which a determination could not be made one way or another.)

Yet too often this behavior is not singled out and identified for what it is. When a prosecutor puts a witness on the stand whom he knows to be lying, or fails to turn over evidence favorable to the defense, or when a police officer manufactures or destroys evidence to further the likelihood of a conviction, then it is deceptive to term these conscious violations of the law — all of which I found in my research — as merely mistakes or errors.

Mistakes are good-faith errors — like taking the wrong exit off the highway, or dialing the wrong telephone number. There is no malice behind them. However, when officers of the court conspire to convict a defendant of first-degree murder and send him to death row, they are doing much more than making an innocent mistake or error. They are breaking the law.

[TalkLeft]

The misuse of prosecutorial discretion is not something often discussed but seems to be heard a lot more today, most likely because the internet allows widespread dissemination of what used to be just local issues. Some of these instances are so egregious that it is a wonder more DAs are not jailed for their actions. Too easy to just say it was a mistake, I guess. Part of the reason so many people are afraid of being noticed by authorities. You always have something to worry about , even if you did nothing wrong. Check out the 4 men who were sentenced to prison in the 60s for a murder none of them committed. Two died in prison and the other 2 were only released after 30 years in prison. Completely innocent but the FBI was complicit in their convictions because the real murderer was a stoolie for the FBI. And the current Justice Department says that it was okay because the Federal government is not required to tell the state that it is prosecuting the wrong men. At least a judge with normal viewpoints on justice in America is requiring the government to pay out $100 million. Bet they appeal. Why in the world do people want to give them even more power to abuse?  6:29:06 PM    

JOURNAL: Resilient Communities as an export?.

As I point out in Brave New War, resilient communities are a necessary step to survive unexpected global system shocks (vicious black swans that rapidly sweep through our newly interconnected and tightly coupled grid) over the next decades. The reduction in complexity made possible by a bottoms up approach not only ensures local success in the face of system failures, it makes it possible for the entire system to re-establish itself faster and with less long term damage.

When we do eventually develop adopt resilient community model, either with foresight by those who want to gain competitive advantage or through desperation brought on by repeated failure, we will likely find a welcome audience for all its elements in the developing world. Regardless, the faster we do so the better, as Michael Wines demonstrates with his article on how a continent wide power crises is slowing innovation and growth in Africa.

[Global Guerrillas]

This may drive the decentalization of things as much as the economy does.   4:27:13 PM