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Friday, May 16, 2003 |
Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions?
Jared Diamond:
What I'm going to suggest is a road map of factors in failures of group decision making. I'll divide the answers into a sequence of four somewhat fuzzily delineated categories. First of all, a group may fail to anticipate a problem before the problem actually arrives. Secondly, when the problem arrives, the group may fail to perceive the problem. Then, after they perceive the problem, they may fail even to try to solve the problem. Finally, they may try to solve it but may fail in their attempts to do so. While all this talking about reasons for failure and collapses of society may seem pessimistic, the flip side is optimistic: namely, successful decision-making. Perhaps if we understand the reasons why groups make bad decisions, we can use that knowledge as a check list to help groups make good decisions.
This is a fun short discussion, in RealVideo format, of the topic, very interesting. As he talks about the students he worked with recently, I can't help but be jealous of those students. It would be loads of fun to study with this man.
8:30:31 AM Permalink
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© Copyright 2004 Steve Michel.
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