Monday, January 27, 2003

Three Ways Timothy Wilken, MD writes: When we examine the relationship between self and other, we discover that we can choose actions that result in our being worse off, actions that result in our being unchanged, or actions that result in our being better off. We can choose to hurt each other, we can choose to ignore each other, or we can choose to help each other. It was as a child on the school playgrounds of rural America in the 1950's that I first learned of these three choices first hand. My twin brother and I were seven years old when our Dad was transferred to a new job and our family moved to the small community of Palco, Kansas. We arrived there after the start of the school year, and soon found ourselves threatened by the established group of boys at our new school. For reasons unclear to me then, conflict seemed almost constant, and real knock down battles occurred all too frequently. One of my strongest childhood memories is of fear and running. A pack of boys are chasing me and my brother. If they catch us, they will beat us up. I am very tired. We have been running for nearly thirty minutes. My heart is pounding so hard I can hear little else. Perspiration fills my eyes making it difficult to see. A hundred yards ahead my twin brother is running easier. He is taller and a great runner. The pack cannot catch him. But, they are getting closer to me. Recess is almost over now, if we can just hold out until the bell rings, we will escape back into the safety of the classroom. (01/28/03) Oil in Iraq Greg Peterson writes: Of all the uncertainties in assessing world oil resources, one of the greatest is the future of Iraq. The oil reserves in Iraq are among the largest in the world, second only to Saudi Arabia. More than 100 billion barrels of oil are known to exist within the country, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates an additional 45 billion barrels remain to be discovered. Yet war and sanctions have driven wild fluctuations in Iraq’s oil production over the past 25 years, and the crystal ball for future production is hazy at best. (01/28/03) The Future of Energy Matthew R. Simmons is one the world's leading energy experts and a consultant to the U.S. Congress and President Bush. This is his latest summary (January 2003) of our current energy resources. This pdf file loads slowly, but is well worth the wait. (01/28/03) Colin Campbell on Oil - An Interview From the Wilderness -- How soon before we start to feel the effects of dwindling oil supplies? ... Colin Campbell: We already are -- in the form of the threatened U.S. invasion of the Middle East. The U.S. would be importing 90 percent of its oil by 2020 to hold even current demand and access to foreign oil has long been officially declared a vital national interest justifying military intervention. Probable actual physical shortage of all liquid hydrocarbons worldwide won't appear for about 20 years, especially if deepening recession holds down demand. But people are coming to appreciate that peak is imminent and what it means. Some places like the U.S. will face shortage sooner than others. The price is likely to soar as shortage looms, which itself may delay peak. If the U.S. does invade there will likely be a repeat of Vietnam with many years of fruitless struggle in which the U.S. will be seen as a tyrant and an oppressor, killing all those Arabs. It can't hope to subjugate the place in perpetuity as the people don't surrender easily -- as the Palestinians have shown. So when the U.S. has finally gone, Russia and China will likely be welcomed there to produce whatever is left in the ruins. (01/28/03) 11:08:50 PM

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