Tuesday, December 02, 2003

The Final Energy Crisis Andrew McKillop writes: Willingly or not the world will learn what Peak Oil means. The major underlying theme of this book, it means we are entering a period of accelerated oil and gas depletion, unstoppable price rises for oil and gas, and increased conflict for remaining reserves. Several articles provide detailed figures, and reference sources on the accelerating depletion of cheaply producible oil and gas. Peak Oil will become an accepted fact within as little as 5 or 6 years. The CEO of ExxonMobil Exploration in September 2003 gave his corporation's estimate of how much new oil production capacity must be found, proven, developed or upgraded to cover yearly losses of about 3.25 Million barrels/day due to both economic + geological depletion. Exxon's estimate is that 36 Million b/d must be developed by 2015 to cover depletion. This is "four new Saudi Arabias", or "twelve new Venezuelas". In 11 years. This is at the least unlikely to be possible. All the world's biggest oil and associated gas fields were found before 1969 - no more 'super giants' are likely to be found. New discoveries are smaller sized, more difficult to find and access, and always more expensive and often slower to develop. When these facts becomes admitted and widely known it will in some ways be too late. Transition to renewable energy and to low energy economic, habitat and social organization, which is the ultimate solution, will take time and itself need massive financing. This argument is posed, and discussed by several contributors, from different perspectives. Conversely, Oil Wars are likely to become a permanent part of the scene, until there is a very big change in popular culture and political attitudes. The rising bellicosity that is the hallmark of the current Bush administration likely reflects the very dire situation of US proven oil reserves - these are equivalent to four years national consumption. Because the US consumes about 26% of the world's entire oil production the realities of the US predicament should be known by all. Several articles discuss the US oil and gas situation in detail. (12/02/03) Blessed Are the Poor BBC Environment -- Many poor countries are working to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases, a senior United Nations official says. Although they do not yet have to act under the international climate treaty, she says, they are wasting no time. She says the treaty itself, the Kyoto Protocol, which has not yet become part of international law, is "a peanut - but a vital one in the long run". And she believes its signatories are committed to making it work whether or not the treaty is eventually ratified. The official is Ms Joke Waller-Hunter, executive secretary of the UN Climate Change Convention. The countries which have signed the convention are meeting in the Italian city of Milan from 1 to 12 December "to assess progress in addressing climate change". The protocol will enter into force only when 55 signatories have ratified it: they must include industrialised countries responsible for 55% of the developed world's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 1990. Some critics say President Bush's decision that the US, which emits more greenhouse gases than any other country, will not ratify the protocol condemns it to irrelevance. But enough other signatories have done so for it to enter into force if and when Russia, another big polluter, ratifies. So far President Putin has not said it will ratify. Ms Waller-Hunter told BBC News Online at the convention's offices in the German city of Bonn: "There are 119 countries which have ratified the protocol, and I get the impression they are committed to implementing it regardless of it entering into force. "In the developing countries, known in the protocol as non-Annex One countries, we're seeing a keen interest in Kyoto.  (12/02/03) 6:55:59 AM

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