My World of “Ought to Be”

The $44 Trillion Abyss

Anna Bernasek writes: The first massive wave of baby-boomer retirees will hit five years from now. That will leave fewer workers to pay for ballooning Social Security and Medicare bills. Based on current government revenue and spending, the budget shortfall is estimated at $44.2 trillion. ... Just How Much Is $44 Trillion? It would buy three Hummer H2s for every person in the U.S. Or it's about 1,500 times the personal fortune of Bill Gates. ... To perform the calculations, Smetters and Gokhale had to make certain key assumptions about the rate of growth in government spending, taxes, medical costs, and hundreds of other things. Since they wanted to be as conservative as possible, they took their numbers from the government's own budget. In one particular case—medical costs—they chose a much more optimistic number, opting for 1% growth above GDP rather than the historical rate of 3%. The gap between payments and income came in at $44.2 trillion. Think about $44 trillion for a moment. It's probably the biggest thing you've never heard of—and certainly the biggest number FORTUNE will publish in its pages this year. It's more than four times the size of our GDP, and 1 1/2 times the size of the entire world's GDP. If we had a fire sale of all our nation's assets today—stocks, bonds, and real estate—we could just about pull in $44 trillion. Just to be clear, that number is not a bill that comes due on a certain date. What it shows is the debt that would accumulate over years of deficits if we continue as we are. It is an honest measure of the inexorable pressure on the government's future ability to spend. This amounts to a massive weight on the economy. Worse than that, it's getting bigger. Every year the government sits on its hands, that $44 trillion grows by about $1.6 trillion. (12/17/03)

BIOMIMICRY: Living Within Our Means

All organisms ~ plants, animals, fungi, algae, and bacteria ~ must grow, maintain, feed, and reproduce to ensure their short-term and long-term sustainability. The same can be said for humans. But the way industrial humans have gone about meeting their needs is quite different from the way other organisms survive, and therein lies the root of our sustainability crisis. Non-human organisms, by and large, meet their basic life requisites within the confines and constraints of their environment. Within that habitat context, they either adapt, migrate, or go extinct. Adaptations, both behavioral and physiological, help sustain individuals in the short term, and ultimately lead to genetic adaptations that sustain the species in the long term. Over the last 3.8 billion years, these adaptations have led to the evolution of 30 million species (and possibly upwards of 100 million) ~ each with its own unique way of meeting its needs in harmony with its environment. Ecologists have long been intrigued by how complex, efficient, and effective these adaptations are. Despite their immense variety, natural systems ~ from microscopic amoebas to entire ecosystems and biomes ~ share at least one trait. They are limited in their adaptations by the constraints of their environment and by the natural laws of biology. Following these biological laws, it seems, is essential to maintaining long-term sustainability. ... Although modern humans are also organisms with a complex set of life requisites, and although we too adapt, we have chosen to do so without regard to environmental constraints. As organisms, we tend to be long-lived, mobile, migratory generalists with moderate reproduction but high survival rates, large energy requirements, and complex communication and social systems. With these characteristics, we have created a set of life requisites which include demands for products and services that we feel are necessary ~ not only for survival, but also for human happiness. In our modern industrial world, we have created a life style to meet these demands, yet our adaptations no longer follow biological laws. In fact, we often adapt our environments and attempt to change the very constraints that force our own adaptation. Indeed, in our industrial, financial, and civil systems, often the antithesis of biological laws are prescribed. As a result, there is considerable evidence that we are pushing the limits of our existence. (12/17/03)

A Safer Way to Kill

New Scientist -- A gun that can fire shots accurately around corners has been demonstrated by a US arms maker. The Corner Shot, developed by a Florida-based company, resembles a rifle with hinge in its middle. It has been tested by the Israeli military and was demonstrated at a firing range at Shoham, near Tel Aviv, on Monday. Units have already been sold to military forces in 15 different countries.The front section can be bent up to 60° to the left or the right, allowing a soldier to shoot around a wall or door without exposing any part of themselves to enemy fire. The weapon is comprised of a handgun fitted to the front of the system and fired from the back section using an ordinary trigger. A video camera at the front is linked to a small high-resolution screen at the back. This lets the user see precisely where the gun is pointing without poking their head or hands out in the firing line. The camera incorporates crosshairs, auto-focus and an infrared filter for use in low light. Pulling a grip underneath the weapon quickly snaps it from its bent configuration into a straight one, meaning it can then be used normally. (12/17/03)

Rats Needed in Health Care

New Scientist -- Giant rats in Sub-Saharan Africa are being trained to sniff out tuberculosis in humans. The rats have already been successfully used to detect land mines by their odour. Preliminary tests suggest the rats could test as many as 150 saliva samples for TB in just 30 minutes. By contrast, human technicians using a microscope can test only 20 samples a day. The World Bank has now provided $165,000 for a full study of the rats' diagnostic potential. "Tuberculosis is a growing worldwide epidemic," says Bart Weetjens, director of the rat programme at Apopo, a Belgian research organisation hosted by Sokoine University of Agriculture in Tanzania. "It makes sense to detect those cases to be able to treat them." Richard Zaleskis, European adviser for TB control at the World Health Organization, agrees. "It is vital to detect TB as early as possible," he says. With early detection, good health-care facilities and access to drugs, TB is curable. Worldwide, about 2.5 million people are expected to die of the airborne disease in 2003, with Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia the hardest hit. By 2015, the global death toll could rise to 8 million. ... The rat study, which will begin in July 2004, will test the olfactory abilities of about 30 giant pouched rats (Cricetomys gambianus). The researchers will compare the rats' adeptness with the 95 per cent accuracy of smear microscopy. Preliminary results look positive. Apopo researchers used bananas and peanuts to reward rats when they stopped beside a target smell. In this way, they sensitised five rats to the smell of TB bacteria in saliva and another five to the smell of TB bacteria grown in cultures. The rats were then tested using 10,000 saliva samples and identified about 77 per cent of infected saliva samples. Weetjens hopes that using three or four trained rats on each sample will increase the accuracy. The rats scored better - nearly 92 per cent - with cultured bacteria. The number of "false positives," where rats stopped at uninfected samples, was less than 2 per cent for both cultures and saliva. (12/17/03)

Two Scenarios for Future Flight

BBC Technology -- The UK Government estimates growth in passengers at around 4% per year until 2030. Industry forecasts broadly agree with this projection. Small Air Taxies: The Small Aircraft Transportation System (Sats) offers a solution to the problem of burgeoning demand for air travel. ... The vision of Sats is of a nation of air travellers hopping between small airports on a point-to-point, on-demand basis in "air-taxis". Nasa is designing new aircraft for the job: 4-8-seater passenger jets and looking further to the future, personal air vehicles (PAVs), which it says would be affordable for the general public and self-operated without the need for a pilot. ... Super Jumbo Carriers: David Velupillai, regional spokesperson for European aircraft manufacturer Airbus, says, "Occasionally, things like the Gulf War and the Sars epidemic slow that down for a short period, but then it goes back up to the same level roughly a year later. Looking to the future, passengers will double every 15 years and triple every 23 years. Airbus's response to the challenge posed by rising demand is the A380 - a king-size double-decker aircraft able to seat a total of 555 passengers, about 155 more than current jumbos. The A380 will house a lounge, a bar, showers and a gymnasium." This "super-jumbo" is primarily designed for heavily travelled routes such as London to Singapore, London to New York and Tokyo to Los Angeles. ... (Editor's note: Of course both of these scenarios depend on humanity finding a solution to the Fossil Fuel Depletion Crisis.) (12/17/03)

Warning for Humanity

BBC Environment -- One of the most influential US science organisations dedicated to studying the Earth and its environment says human influence on the climate is increasing. The American Geophysical Union has just adopted a new policy position on global warming in which it states its concern over rising greenhouse gas emissions. The AGU's council says carbon dioxide concentrations may be climbing faster now than at any time in Earth history. It calls for concerted worldwide study to understand how Earth will change. "It is virtually certain that increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will cause global surface climate to be warmer," the AGU council statement says. "The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict some aspects of human-induced climate change: exactly how fast it will occur, exactly how much it will change, and exactly where those changes will take place." It continues: "In contrast, scientists are confident in other predictions. Mid-continent warming will be greater than over the oceans, and there will be greater warming at higher latitudes. "Some polar and glacial ice will melt, and the oceans will warm; both effects will contribute to higher sea levels. "The hydrologic cycle will change and intensify, leading to changes in water supply as well as flood and drought patterns." The AGU has just finished its fall meeting held in San Francisco. As in previous years, it heard from researchers whose studies strongly support the idea that human influence on climate is real and growing. One presentation sought to show that humans had been altering the climate for thousands of years, ever since the beginnings of agriculture. The AGU said it was imperative scientists worldwide participated in climate research. It also called for policy discussions and decision-making "to be based upon objective assessment of peer-reviewed research results". (12/17/03)

Earth's Bioshere over 3.7 Billion Years Old!

BBC Science -- Scientists claim to have found the oldest evidence of photosynthesis - the most important chemical reaction on Earth - in 3.7 billion-year-old rocks. Photosynthesis is the process by which plants, algae and certain bacteria convert sunlight to chemical energy. Danish researchers say rocks from Greenland show life-forms were using the process about one billion years earlier than has previously been shown. Details of the research are published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters. Professor Minik Rosing and Professor Robert Frei, both of the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, analysed ancient seafloor sediments in Isua, Greenland, where they had previously found the earliest evidence of life on Earth. "What this demonstrates is that the Earth had a functioning biosphere before 3.7 billion years ago," Professor Rosing told BBC News Online. The researchers discovered abundant quantities of the element uranium in the ancient sediments, which had most likely precipitated out of ocean water. In a "reducing" environment where little or no photosynthesis is taking place, the elements uranium and thorium would move around together in the ocean as mineral particles. But the high abundance of uranium relative to thorium in Isua rocks suggested that uranium had been chemically separated from thorium. This happens under "oxidising" conditions where organisms are releasing oxygen into the environment. Rosing and Frei conclude that microbes much like present-day cyanobacteria were converting sunlight to chemical energy through oxygenic, or oxygen-producing, photosynthesis. Anoxygenic photosynthesis, a form of the reaction that does not produce oxygen as a by-product, is widely thought to have evolved before the oxygenic form. Professor Rosing does not dispute this, but, he said: "The problem is that one doesn't know how long life was evolving on Earth before 3.7 billion years ago. The geological record more or less stops there." Professor Michael Bickle, a geologist at the University of Cambridge, UK, said the existence of photosynthesis at 3.7 billion years ago was "indubitable". (12/17/03)