Wednesday, December 24, 2003

Why Nanotechnology Ray Kurzweil writes: I can understand Drexler's frustration in this debate because I have had many critics that do not bother to read or understand the data and arguments that I have presented for my own conceptions of future technologies.  Smalley's argument is of the form that "we don't have 'X' today, therefore 'X' is impossible."  I encounter this class of argument repeatedly in the area of artificial intelligence.  Critics will cite the limitations of today's systems as proof that such limitations are inherent and can never be overcome.  These critics ignore the extensive list of contemporary examples of AI (for example, airplanes and weapons that fly and guide themselves, automated diagnosis of electrocardiograms and blood cell images, automated detection of credit card fraud, automated investment programs that routinely outperform human analysts, telephone-based natural language response systems, and hundreds of others) that represent working systems that are commercially available today that were only research programs a decade ago. Those of us who attempt to project into the future based on well-grounded methodologies are at a disadvantage.  Certain future realities may be inevitable, but they are not yet manifest, so they are easy to deny.  There was a small body of thought at the beginning of the 20th century that heavier-than-air flight was feasible, but mainstream skeptics could simply point out that if it was so feasible, why had it never been demonstrated?  In 1990, Kasparov scoffed at the idea that machine chess players could ever possibly defeat him.  When it happened in 1997, observers were quick to dismiss the achievement by dismissing the importance of chess. ... I would point out to Smalley that earlier critics also expressed skepticism that either world-wide communication networks or software viruses that would spread across them were feasible.  Today, we have both the benefits and the damage from both of these capabilities.  However, along with the danger of software viruses has also emerged a technological immune system.  While it does not completely protect us, few people would advocate eliminating the Internet in order to eliminate software viruses.  We are obtaining far more benefit than damage from this latest example of intertwined promise and peril. ... By the 2020s, molecular assembly will provide tools to effectively combat poverty, clean up our environment, overcome disease, extend human longevity, and many other worthwhile pursuits. (12/22/03) The Soot Factor! BBC Science -- The effects of soot in changing the climate are more than most scientists acknowledge, two US researchers say. In the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they say reducing atmospheric soot levels could help to slow global warming relatively simply. They believe soot is twice as potent as carbon dioxide, a main greenhouse gas, in raising surface air temperatures. But they say greenhouse gases were the chief cause of last century's global warming, and will probably remain so. The researchers are Dr James Hansen and Larissa Nazarenko, both of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, part of the US space agency Nasa, and Columbia University Earth Institute. In their report, Soot Climate Forcing Via Snow And Ice Albedos, they suggest that trying to reduce the amount of soot produced would be easier than cutting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. They define soot as "mainly black carbon, the dusty by-product of incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, plants and wood". Its concentrations vary in time and place, but they are often high over China and India, where coal and organic fuels are used domestically, and over Europe and North America, where the main source is diesel oil. The authors modelled how soot particles affect climate when they darken snow and ice, causing it to absorb sunlight rather than reflect it. It was the results of this modelling that persuaded them that soot is twice as effective as carbon dioxide in raising global surface air temperatures. The report says high soot emissions may have contributed substantially to global warming over the past century, notably to the growing trend in recent decades for ice, snow and permafrost to melt earlier in the spring. (12/24/03) Mad Cow in America BBC Health -- The United States has reported its first suspected case of "mad cow disease", or BSE, in Washington state. Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman said a Holstein cow had tested positive - but she insisted US beef was safe. In response, a number of countries in Asia, including America's biggest importer, Japan, have moved swiftly to ban US beef. BSE has been linked to new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD), a human brain-wasting disease. The diseased cow was tested for BSE on 9 December and a tissue sample was being flown by military jet to the UK for further tests. The results will take a few days to come through. The farm near Yakima, Washington, where the cow was found has been quarantined. "We remain confident in the safety of our food supply," Ms Veneman told reporters - adding that she planned to serve beef on Christmas Day. The dairy cow had been sick or injured and was never destined for the public food supply, Ms Veneman said. In Tokyo, Japanese agriculture ministry spokesman Hiroaki Ogura said a ban on US beef products took effect immediately, until further information could be gathered. South Korea - another key US market - followed suit, halting customs inspection of US beef and effectively blocking its entry into the country's markets. The BBC's Michael Buchanan in Washington says while that will concern exporters, the real harm could come if American consumers stop eating beef and deal a potentially devastating blow to the $175bn US cattle industry. Canada, the third biggest foreign market for US beef, said it would wait for confirmation on the test results before taking any action. (12/24/03) 6:21:57 AM

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